Mitt Romney, Turnaround Artist, Turns Around His Own Campaign
In "A Risky Rationale," the New York Times' statistician and political junkie Nate Silver offers a long and detailed analysis of Romney's choice this morning. It's all worth reading, but here's Silver's central argument:
...Mr. Romney decided to change his strategy rather than to make a tactical choice. He wants to shake up the race, and I expect Mr. Ryan to do that.
Young, attractive and outspoken, Mr. Ryan will be loved by conservatives — and just as assuredly, detested by liberals. In a race that lacks compelling story lines and fresh faces, he may become the focal point. It seems entirely plausible that his rallies will draw larger crowds than either of the presidential candidates themselves, and that stories about him will draw more Internet traffic, especially in the early days of his candidacy. He should also be a fund-raising magnet — for Mr. Romney, and probably also for Mr. Obama.
Mr. Ryan’s controversial budget, which polls poorly, will obviously get much more attention than it had previously. The fate of the presidential race and the fate of Congressional races may become more closely tied together. Mr. Obama will no longer have to stretch to evoke the specter of Congress and its 15 percent approval rating. With Mr. Ryan on the opposing ticket, he will be running against a flesh-and-blood embodiment of it.
Taking risks like these is not what you do if you think you have a winning hand already. But Mr. Romney, the turnaround artist, decided that he needed to turn around his own campaign.
Ryan doesn't represent a tactical choice. He represents an entirely new strategy.
That strikes me as exactly right.
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Oct '10
Re: Mitt Romney, Turnaround Artist, Turns Around His Own Campaign
"Taking risks like these is not what you do if you think you have a winning hand already."
What is Silver talking about?? That's like saying a poker player took a risk by taking that 5th card, because he wouldn't have done that if he thought he had a winning hand already. But he had only 4 cards at the time!!
Mitt Romney didn't even have a running mate yet, and yet choosing one is somehow "taking a risk??" He didn't HAVE a hand yet, so he couldn't have had a winning one, either.
Any running mate choice presents risks. Silver's notion that Romney could've found a running mate amorphous enough to maintain the status quo, that the status quo was known to be a winning hand 3 months out, and that doing so would not be risky is absurd.
May '10
Re: Mitt Romney, Turnaround Artist, Turns Around His Own Campaign
Kirsten Powers made a similar point on Bret Baier's show today. Whereas the focus was on the economy, the focus is now the debt. Whereas the focus could have been put on Obama's promises of recovery, the focus is now on Ryan's Roadmap for entitlement reform.
Like Ryan said, it's time to be honest with voters. The real choice had to be offered to them. But the addition of Ryan to the ticket will complicate Romney's campaign in ways other VP candidates would not have.
Of course, other candidates would have complicated Romney's campaign in other ways. Another person is more material for liberals to misrepresent.
May '11
Re: Mitt Romney, Turnaround Artist, Turns Around His Own Campaign
Silver's graphics and presentation are beautiful, but I've never put much stock in his analysis or talent for prediction.
May '11
Re: Mitt Romney, Turnaround Artist, Turns Around His Own Campaign
I think Romney and Ryan will have no trouble keeping the focus on the economy and promises of recovery.
If you noticed from Ryan's philosophically focused speech today, it's all tied together.
Aug '10
Re: Mitt Romney, Turnaround Artist, Turns Around His Own Campaign
I am actually getting a bit worn thin with supposed conservative pundits bashing Mitt Romney. He was not my first choice, but he is our candidate and he is my choice NOW. I thought they looked Reaganesque today! I have loved Mark Steyn, but his column today is beneath him, I think. If we don't all work together and do all we can to see Romney/Ryan win, we will see the end of our country as we know it--not to mention more SCOTUS justices appointed by this rogue administration! As Paul Ryan said today, you are either part of the problem or part of the solution!
Jun '10
Re: Mitt Romney, Turnaround Artist, Turns Around His Own Campaign
THERE WAS NOTHING WRONG WITH HIS CAMPAIGN THAT HAD TO BE TURNED AROUND PETER!! Come on, stop buying into the MSM. The campaign was doing fine, he is up 4 pts against an incumbent President. Ronald Reagan was not up 4 points to carter at this point.
Jan '11
Re: Mitt Romney, Turnaround Artist, Turns Around His Own Campaign
Agreed Mr Robinson. This is about Rob Long's point - clarity. The choice is not based on appealing to demographic A, or constituency B, but rather about a choice for the future. Adult vs PeurileAgree Anna S re the Steyn column. Phoned in pabulum
Aug '10
Re: Mitt Romney, Turnaround Artist, Turns Around His Own Campaign
Unless he picked Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney was still the odds-on favorite to win this election. All the money and smears that Team BO have thrown at him have had precious little impact, other than to shoot their wad. People vote in two ways: with their money and in the ballot box. The money part of this was pointing the way to what would occur in November. First rule of anything: follow the money.
Choosing Paul Ryan as a running mate, in my view, was not so much a change in either strategy or tactics, but it was the answer to what so many on our side have been looking for: a philosophy that he embraces. Now we know what it is.
My opinion is that this has been something of the plan all along. With Romney the favorite to win, he's using his VP pick to assure that he has a chance to secure majorities in both houses of Congress, should it all come to pass. Audacious? Yes.
My admiration of his forethought has taken a step forward.
Jul '10
Re: Mitt Romney, Turnaround Artist, Turns Around His Own Campaign
That may be true only if the R/R campaign allows itself to play defense, which I don't think will happen. It will be about the economy which certainly includes the debt - caused by the current resident of the WH. The roadmap to real recovery is just the icing on the cake - further placing the difference in the candidates’ philosophy in stark relief.
May '10
Re: Mitt Romney, Turnaround Artist, Turns Around His Own Campaign
Why do you not suppose this was Romney's strategy all along? My guess is that Romney wanted Ryan at least as early as April.
Besides, The Romney logo always had a double "R" in it. So it was always going to be Ryan. Or Rubio....
Apr '11
Re: Mitt Romney, Turnaround Artist, Turns Around His Own Campaign
Peter's not buying the MSM. He's buying the same conservative friends he's been buying for a long time, and he's buying his instincts. Happily, his half-hearted fight against his instincts seems to be becoming a little more effective. I look forward to a roughly even number of criticisms and statements support escalating to a 2/3 majority of support by late October.
Dec '10
Re: Mitt Romney, Turnaround Artist, Turns Around His Own Campaign
Better stated: Mr. Ryan's budget, which no one has heard anything about except for what the MSM has reported Debbie Wasserman-Schulz saying about it, will finally get a fair hearing. The vast majority of the country which hasn't seen Ryan's videos on the House Budget Committee's youtube page will be able to hear both sides of the argument and make a decision between the new status quo of decline or reform that saves our social programs.
Jan '11
Re: Mitt Romney, Turnaround Artist, Turns Around His Own Campaign
Seems to me that we've heard a lot lately about how there are so few independents this year. Is it more important to appeal to people who make up their minds at the last minute anyway, or do you try to maximize turnout in your base?
What if you can do both?
Look, the independents aren't going to pay attention until October anyway - and let's face it, they fall for negative ads. By then, Obama will be out of money, and Mitt can outspend him into dust.
In the meantime, we've just spent the last year praying for some real conservative ... someone like, you know, like a Paul Ryan ... to enter the race. Well, if any conservatives were bluffing (most of us weren't), Romney just called the bluff. We can't possibly sit at home now.
He locked us up tight with Ryan. He's got the cash for a negative ad blitz in October. I'd say he's in good position right now.
Now, he just has to make sure that he doesn't blow the debates.
Apr '11
Re: Mitt Romney, Turnaround Artist, Turns Around His Own Campaign
I think his model is the best out there. It performed pretty well in the primaries; he's the only chap whose predictions I felt really proud of beating on Super Tuesday. He's good on the objective stuff, data sifting.
He's not very good at the normative stuff. A couple of days ago, he was suggesting a pro-choice candidate would be a good idea for Mitt.
Edited on August 12, 2012 at 7:38amApr '11
Re: Mitt Romney, Turnaround Artist, Turns Around His Own Campaign
KC Mulville:
He locked us up tight with Ryan. He's got the cash for a negative ad blitz in October. I'd say he's in good position right now.
Now, he just has to make sure that he doesn't blow the debates. · 15 minutes ago
More than cash, he needs callers. He particularly needs them this week, as it makes a big difference when the first a voter hears about Ryan is from an enthusiastic voice.
Apr '11
Re: Mitt Romney, Turnaround Artist, Turns Around His Own Campaign
dittoheadadt:"Taking risks like these is not what you do if you think you have a winning hand already."
What is Silvertalkingabout?? That's like saying a poker player took a risk by taking that 5th card......
Mitt Romney didn't evenhavea running mate yet, and yet choosing one is somehow "taking a risk??" He didn't HAVE a hand yet, so he couldn't havehada winning one, either.
Any running mate choice presents risks.....
I agree that the talk about a "bold" VP selection was/ is dumb. Silver's argument, though, makes some sense if you think of it like this, with Portman as the alternative: Ryan lacks Portman's fluent Spanish, Ohioan popularity, debating record, and foreign policy chops. Each of those represents a relatively predictable problem for the campaign, as do Ryan's handful of liberal votes and relative lack of private sector or executive experience.
What he brings are unpredictable assets: media coverage; excitement and attendant conservative volunteering; great looks; a better chance at Wisconsin; and some loyalty from the conservative media. There's both more upside and downside risk there than with Portman, McDonnell, and other leading candidates.
Mar '11
Re: Mitt Romney, Turnaround Artist, Turns Around His Own Campaign
First we were told that Mitt Romney was not a principled conservative and no one serious in their convictions could get behind him, regardless of electability concerns. Thus we had a long, bloody primary race. It had some virtues—he became a stronger candidate—but one casualty was that he spent his pre-general war chest against non-viable candidates and under current campaign finance law he cannot respond now to Obama attack ads.
Then the dreaded VP choice came and Romney turns to the most passionate, vocal and, best of all, substantive and competent advocate of major government reform to join his ticket. Now we’re being told by these same people that regardless of conservative convictions and whatever it says about Romney’s seriousness about reform, this ticket is hopeless because it just won’t win, the models tell us so.
I guess hope isn’t a policy, but shoulder-shrugging is?
Mar '11
Re: Mitt Romney, Turnaround Artist, Turns Around His Own Campaign
James of England:
I think his model is the best out there. It performed pretty well in the primaries; he's the only chap whose predictions I felt really proud of beating on Super Tuesday. He's good on the objective stuff, data sifting.
He's not very good at the normative stuff. A couple of days ago, he was suggesting a pro-choice candidate would be a good idea for Mitt.
James--Quite right. Silver's model suffers from the same basic problems of all "social science": it isn't predictive because it is impossible to measure a counterfactual or assign the proper weight to unknowns. There's no 'control' side of the experiment, and the data often doesn't transfer so as to make the results replicable in another place by another team.
May '10
Re: Mitt Romney, Turnaround Artist, Turns Around His Own Campaign
"Ryan will be detested by liberals," says Silver. Not so, save liberal politicians. Ryan won with 60+% in 2008 in a district that went Obama at 54%. Many left-leaning voters respect him, admire him, and yes, vote for him -- once they get to know him. Let's hope there's time for the whole country to get to know him.
May '10
Re: Mitt Romney, Turnaround Artist, Turns Around His Own Campaign
Peter, at last report we had you at 1/2 cheers for Romney. Are we up to a full 2 cheers yet? 2 1/2? :)