Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
John Podhoretz, writing today over at Contentions, provides the most trenchant analysis of the state of the Romney campaign that I've come across anywhere. An extended excerpt, very much worth reading:
The line from Romney headquarters last month was “every day we’re not talking about the economy is a day we lose.” This line, which came from the highest reaches of the campaign, was proffered to explain the unwillingness to provide substantive details on a host of policies besides the economy. Well, Romney HQ isn’t talking about the economy these days. It’s talking about the ad that all but accused Romney of murdering a woman with cancer. It’s talking about its vice-presidential pick. It’s talking about whether its ad accusing the president of gutting welfare-to-work laws is accurate. Guess what? It turns out you can’t just talk about the economy when people—and the media—want to talk about something else.
The polls suggesting he’s seven or nine points behind are surely wrong, but given that there is only one national poll that shows him ahead, we have to presume Romney is behind....
[Romney]...is not, at root, an ideological person. Neither, at root, are [the people running his campaign].... And the data suggest this is not a time for a sharply ideological campaign. The data suggest Romney needs to run as Mr. Fix-It. That is how Romney prefers to view himself. So the two match perfectly.
Alas for him, that’s not how it works. If conservative ideology is a problem with some independents, it also has the virtue of providing those who use it [with a way] to discuss the nation’s problems.... Romney has just learned over the past few weeks that he cannot limit the discussion to the topics he wishes to talk about, especially when his rival is spending $100 million trying to destroy him in the swing states and when the media are largely serving his purposes by acting as though an increase in the unemployment rate and utterly unimpressive jobs-creation numbers are somehow good news.
So here’s why he should be talking about other things, releasing plans, giving speeches on big topics—because it’s the only way he can control the discussion.
John's analysis strikes me as entirely correct.
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Aug '11
Re: Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
Michael Tavistock
DrewInWisconsin
Great idea. That was the Mitt Romney that made me loathe Mitt Romney. I'm sure that'll work. · 0 minutes ago
Fighting back against Newt's ridiculous attacks on Bain made you loathe him? Knocking Newt out cold in the Florida debate made you loathe him?
The blatant lies told about Newt made me loathe him. The fact that 100% of Romney's ads were attack ads on Newt made me loathe him. 100%.
I am slowly learning to support Mitt, and I desperately want to see Obama knocked out cold, but I don't want to see the lying Mitt of the Florida Primary.
Apr '12
Re: Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
Romney fights...one week after the bell has rung. A VP fighter like Christie who is good on his feet would free up Romney to throw a quick jab and then move back to the problems he will fix in the economy.
Edited on August 10, 2012 at 10:28pmJun '12
Re: Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
BrentB67: Question for the Poll experts: Every poll I've read recently except Rasmussen shows Obama leading including a recent Fox News Poll showing Obama +9. Why do we all keep deluding ourselves with 'polls are wrong', or are they only correct when the person we support is in the lead?
I assume most of these polling agencies are in business to make a profit. Fabricating misleading results doesn't seem a sound business strategy. · 1 minute ago
That Fox News poll oversampled Democrats by 9 points, 44-35.
As for why they're doing it, that's an open question, but there's little doubt that the polls are skewy (yes, I said SKEW-y) this year.
Apr '11
Re: Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
Remember that our wacky campaign finance laws do not allow that right now. He can't spend any of his general election money until after he accepts the nomination at the RNC in three weeks. He can only make limited strikes right now, and can't go full blitzkrieg yet.
Edited on August 10, 2012 at 8:56pmMar '11
Re: Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
Edward Smith:
Does Romney have to point out that Obama is a failure? That he is desperate? That he is an asshole?
I'm guessing that Mr Romney will not go that route.
Conservatives do have a tendency to go wobbly, as Mrs Thatcher would say.
Fortunately, there is the Instapundit. And as wmartin points out, Mr Romney is not spending much money, yet.
Edited on August 10, 2012 at 9:01pmMar '11
Re: Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
Romney is a colossal bore. If he fights now he'll move ahead of Obama but by November those who are excited by his fight will lose interest. It just isn't who he is. It won't sell.
Strategically he needs to play the patient game. He needs to rope-a-dope until early October. Then suddenly become outraged at something (anything) Obama says and come out swinging. Then keep swinging until election day.
It's the only way he can win.
Oct '11
Re: Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
Mr. Robinson, do you think you could possibly wait until around November 7th to evaluate whether Mitt's campaign "worked"?
Oct '11
Re: Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
wmartin
Remember that our wacky campaign finance laws do not allow that right now. He can't spend any of his general election money until after he accepts the nomination at the RNC in three weeks. He can only make limited strikes right now, and can't go full blitzkrieg yet. · 13 minutes ago
Edited 11 minutes ago
Can someone explain to me why Obama is (it seems to me) allowed to spend general campaign funds now but Romney isn't?
Apr '11
Re: Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
ConservativeWanderer
That Fox News poll oversampled Democrats by 9 points, 44-35.
As for why they're doing it, that's an open question, but there's little doubt that the polls are skewy (yes, I said SKEW-y) this year. · 11 minutes ago
I would say it oversampled by 4 or 5. Remember that even in 2010, Democrats matched republican turnout. I expect a D+4 or D+5 turnout on November 6th.
Oct '11
Re: Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
DrewInWisconsin
The blatant lies told about Newt made me loathe him. The fact that 100% of Romney's ads were attack ads on Newt made me loathe him.100%.
I am slowly learning to support Mitt, and I desperately want to see Obama knocked out cold, but I don't want to see the lying Mitt of the Florida Primary. · 17 minutes ago
What exactly did Romney lie about in Florida? How was it more sickening than Gingrich attacking Romney from the left?
Apr '11
Re: Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
Albert Arthur
wmartin
Remember that our wacky campaign finance laws do not allow that right now. He can't spend any of his general election money until after he accepts the nomination at the RNC in three weeks. He can only make limited strikes right now, and can't go full blitzkrieg yet. · 13 minutes ago
Edited 11 minutes ago
Can someone explain to me why Obama is (it seems to me) allowed to spend general campaign funds now but Romney isn't? · 1 minute ago
My understanding is that it is Primary money that Obama has stockpiled (since he didn't have to go through a contested primary). Mitt spent a huge amount of his primary money putting Newt and Santo away, and he is spending what is left. The end result is that Mitt's hands are tied right now, whereas Obama can take his shots virtually uncontested.
I could well be wrong though; I am not an expert in our byzantine campaign finance laws.
May '12
Re: Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
Obama had no Primary, so I think he is spending Primary money. Or rather, borrowing Primary money, since the fundraising ain't what it used to be.
And kinda wasting it too. The way he is shellacking Romney, shouldn't he have a stronger lead in the polls?
Albert Arthur
wmartin
Remember that our wacky campaign finance laws do not allow that right now. He can't spend any of his general election money until after he accepts the nomination at the RNC in three weeks. He can only make limited strikes right now, and can't go full blitzkrieg yet. · 13 minutes ago
Edited 11 minutes ago
Can someone explain to me why Obama is (it seems to me) allowed to spend general campaign funds now but Romney isn't? · 3 minutes ago
Apr '11
Re: Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
Albert Arthur
DrewInWisconsin
The blatant lies told about Newt made me loathe him. The fact that 100% of Romney's ads were attack ads on Newt made me loathe him.100%.
I am slowly learning to support Mitt, and I desperately want to see Obama knocked out cold, but I don't want to see the lying Mitt of the Florida Primary. · 17 minutes ago
What exactly did Romney lie about in Florida? How was it more sickening than Gingrich attacking Romney from the left? · 3 minutes ago
Since we are talking about "loathing " here, Newt's "King Of Bain" made me loathe Newt. And Newts attacks were what really poisoned the well for Romney with independents, and a big part of why we are now in this mess.
Jun '12
Re: Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
Edward Smith: Obama had no Primary, so I think he is spending Primary money. Or rather, borrowing Primary money, since the fundraising ain't what it used to be.
And kinda wasting it too. The way he is shellacking Romney, shouldn't he have a stronger lead in the polls?
1 minute ago
It actually wouldn't surprise me a bit if Obama is violating campaign finance laws and spending whatever he can get his hands on.
Since when has that man considered himself bound by any laws?
Re: Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
Peter, John Podhoretz is wrong. Gallup has the two neck and neck, and Rasmussen, which polls only those likely to vote, has Romney ahead. These other polls grossly oversample Democrats. Gallup has the two parties at 30% each right now.
Be of good cheer. Romney has not yet begun to fight. There will be a landslide as I predicted yesterday.
Jun '12
Re: Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
Paul A. Rahe: Peter, John Podhoretz is wrong. Gallup has the two neck and neck, and Rasmussen, which polls only those likely to vote, has Romney ahead. These other polls grossly oversample Democrats. Gallup has the two parties at 30% each right now.
Be of good cheer. Romney has not yet begun to fight. There will be a landslide as I predicted yesterday. · 0 minutes ago
Heh. Must be the Bible scholar in me, I just got a kick out of seeing Peter and Paul in the same thread. :)
Apr '11
Re: Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
Paul A. Rahe: Peter, John Podhoretz is wrong. Gallup has the two neck and neck, and Rasmussen, which polls only those likely to vote, has Romney ahead. These other polls grossly oversample Democrats. Gallup has the two parties at 30% each right now.
Be of good cheer. Romney has not yet begun to fight. There will be a landslide as I predicted yesterday. · 0 minutes ago
It is probably just noise, but I was heartened to see that Obama collapsed in Gallup today, now down to 43% approval. I agree with Jay Cost and Sean Trende that until the conventions, the Potus approval rating probably tells you more than the head to head matchups. I am not sure if any President who even sniffed 43% this late in the game has ever won reelection (and we can't really know since Gallup only instituted a daily tracking poll when Obama was inaugurated).
Dec '10
Re: Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
ConservativeWanderer
Paul A. Rahe: Peter, John Podhoretz is wrong. Gallup has the two neck and neck, and Rasmussen, which polls only those likely to vote, has Romney ahead. These other polls grossly oversample Democrats. Gallup has the two parties at 30% each right now.
Be of good cheer. Romney has not yet begun to fight. There will be a landslide as I predicted yesterday. · 0 minutes ago
Heh. Must be the Bible scholar in me, I just got a kick out of seeing Peter and Paul in the same thread. :) · in 0 minutes
Paul rebuking Peter...a little Galatians anyone?
Jun '12
Re: Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
The King Prawn
ConservativeWanderer
Paul A. Rahe: Peter, John Podhoretz is wrong. Gallup has the two neck and neck, and Rasmussen, which polls only those likely to vote, has Romney ahead. These other polls grossly oversample Democrats. Gallup has the two parties at 30% each right now.
Be of good cheer. Romney has not yet begun to fight. There will be a landslide as I predicted yesterday. · 0 minutes ago
Heh. Must be the Bible scholar in me, I just got a kick out of seeing Peter and Paul in the same thread. :) · in 0 minutes
Paul rebuking Peter...a little Galatians anyone? · 2 minutes ago
Good memory, brother Prawn.
Jul '11
Re: Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
How much to the polls swing after the conventions? Seems to me I remember a H.W. Bush election where the convention resulted in a 10-point yo-yo.
I'm watching the Olympics. I hope the rest of you are, too. That's the only thing that's being decided on the field this week or next.
Wake me up in October.