Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
John Podhoretz, writing today over at Contentions, provides the most trenchant analysis of the state of the Romney campaign that I've come across anywhere. An extended excerpt, very much worth reading:
The line from Romney headquarters last month was “every day we’re not talking about the economy is a day we lose.” This line, which came from the highest reaches of the campaign, was proffered to explain the unwillingness to provide substantive details on a host of policies besides the economy. Well, Romney HQ isn’t talking about the economy these days. It’s talking about the ad that all but accused Romney of murdering a woman with cancer. It’s talking about its vice-presidential pick. It’s talking about whether its ad accusing the president of gutting welfare-to-work laws is accurate. Guess what? It turns out you can’t just talk about the economy when people—and the media—want to talk about something else.
The polls suggesting he’s seven or nine points behind are surely wrong, but given that there is only one national poll that shows him ahead, we have to presume Romney is behind....
[Romney]...is not, at root, an ideological person. Neither, at root, are [the people running his campaign].... And the data suggest this is not a time for a sharply ideological campaign. The data suggest Romney needs to run as Mr. Fix-It. That is how Romney prefers to view himself. So the two match perfectly.
Alas for him, that’s not how it works. If conservative ideology is a problem with some independents, it also has the virtue of providing those who use it [with a way] to discuss the nation’s problems.... Romney has just learned over the past few weeks that he cannot limit the discussion to the topics he wishes to talk about, especially when his rival is spending $100 million trying to destroy him in the swing states and when the media are largely serving his purposes by acting as though an increase in the unemployment rate and utterly unimpressive jobs-creation numbers are somehow good news.
So here’s why he should be talking about other things, releasing plans, giving speeches on big topics—because it’s the only way he can control the discussion.
John's analysis strikes me as entirely correct.
You?
- Comment (73)
- · Quote
- · UnfollowFollow (5)
Comments:
May '10
Re: Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
I think we are going to lose because Romney is not going to fight.
May '10
Re: Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
Obama said, "If they bring a knife to the fight, we'll bring a gun." I fear that Romney, because of who he is, will bring a copy of How To Win Friends and Influence People .
Aug '11
Re: Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
Matt Continetti writes this morning at the Free Beacon that "The battle to define Mitt Romney is over—and Romney lost"
Jun '11
Re: Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
What do you make of the Rasmussen Reports poll tracking those who strongly disapprove of Obama's performance? It's been between 40 and 45 percent for quite some time. I can't see voters who strongly disapprove of anything being persuaded to change sides between now and November.
Sep '11
Re: Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
This analysis fits well with Krauthammer's column today which argues that you can't just run against Obama's pitiful record--you have to run against his ideas (the cause of the pitiful record).
May '11
Re: Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
It is not as if Romney has not heard these same criticisms for the past four years. I think he has a plan is sticking to it come hell or high water and looking at how he adapted to the challenges of the primary, I think his plan is still likely to be effective. Most normal people, meaning those not on Ricochet, have not started paying attention to politics yet.
Mar '11
Re: Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
This hand-wringing (by JPod et al) is exactly the phenomenon that Rob Long predicted for weeks on the podcast!
Namely, many months before the polls have any real meaning, people look at short-term movements in those polls and start panicking over what is actually just background noise.
This race is still young, and the few undecided deciders of the election have barely begun tuning in. Let's all calm down and stop extrapolating the individual bumps of our 24-hour news cycle (which will soon be forgotten) onto a big picture which has yet to truly emerge.
(This comment posted from the iPhone of a Romney skeptic.)
Edited on August 10, 2012 at 10:34pmJul '12
Re: Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
I think Romney is doing just fine, I just wish he'd bring out the "Florida primary against Newt" Mitt, that I'd like to see...
Mar '11
Re: Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
In short, "Mr. Fix It", Mr. Podhoretz is obliquely summoning you to marshall your 'what works' detached analysis and apply it to your own campaign.
Jan '11
Re: Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
There are businesses in which you can succeed as a leader, even if you don't explain yourself. Politics ain't one of them.
It isn't enough to propose X, Y, or Z. In politics, you have to explain why we need XYZ, what are the problems they're trying to address, and how they'll fix them. And, most importantly, you have to present an overall view to make all of your proposals coherent. It's not enough to propose one conservative policy here, and maybe another one there. Coherence demands that you can explain why any and all policies work together.
The reason why we conservatives were wary of Romney throughout the primaries is because we weren't sure that he shared that overall view of conservatism. He proposed conservative policies here and there, but I never got sense that conservatism was the standard by which he evaluated policy.
Aug '11
Re: Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
Great idea. That was the Mitt Romney that made me loathe Mitt Romney. I'm sure that'll work.
May '12
Re: Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
The problem with fight Obama on the basis of his ideas is that they do make absolute emotional sense ...
... to people who think that people who have more or shinier stuff & things than them are richer than they are (according to the latest interview on EconTalk, the ancient Greeks, who could afford a population well above what the land they had to farm could feed and to pay day laborers at an extraordinarily high level, thought they were poorer than the Persians - because they compared themselves to the Persian nobles, not the general population)
... to people who think that anyone who is richer than they are should earn less and pay more taxes
... to people who think that striving to better themselves is not going to work, or somehow a Sin
How do you fight that?
I have been trying to follow the impact of the latest "Romney gave my wife cancer" ad, and am gratified to see that even the jerk circles I would expect to rally around this latest attack the enthusiasm is just not there.
Does Romney have to point out that Obama is a failure? That he is desperate? That he is an asshole? No.
Dec '10
Re: Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
Seems like he's putting from the tee box to me, but I'm still pretty biased against him for all the reasons Krauthammer lists today.
Jul '12
Re: Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
DrewInWisconsin
Great idea. That was the Mitt Romney that made me loathe Mitt Romney. I'm sure that'll work. · 0 minutes ago
Fighting back against Newt's ridiculous attacks on Bain made you loathe him? Knocking Newt out cold in the Florida debate made you loathe him? Wow. lol
Jul '10
Re: Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
They can't *not* respond (double negatives, because I'm wicked street, like that).
The Romney team needs to be able to slam the atrocities from the Obama ads (and that is what they are), quickly & effectively, then instantly turn to the economy in the same conversation. With passion.
May '12
Re: Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
Romney is not allowed to spend his campaign money yet and the press is doing everything to help Obama distort Romney's image. There is not a lot you can do when the press ignores every great speech and line of attack while blowing every word or phrase that can possibly be misconstrued into the gaffe of the century. Until the convention and ability to open up the war chest happen, Romney will struggle. It's not his fault. Don't panic.
Peter, I wonder why you rarely if ever make the arguments against Romney yourself, but always cite a surrogate to hide behind and make your criticisms for you.
Jan '11
Re: Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
On a different tack:
Why do I vote in the first place? It's because I want to see the country governed in a certain way, according to certain principles. I'm a conservative. I want the country governed that way. I'm always going to vote for the person who gets closest to those principles.
My vote is about me, not him.
These candidates think the election is about them. It astonishes me to think that these prima donnas are so self-absorbed that they think the whole country will go to the polls in November to bestow a giant kiss on one of their behinds. As if the national election is our way of showing them our love for them.
The only reason I'm voting for Mitt Romney is because he's closer to conservatism than Obama. That's why the Fixer, the Businessman, the Corporate Steward - those "models" mean nothing to me. I couldn't care less about Romney's own self-perception, or what sort of "image" he wants to build. Who cares what fantasy he imagines himself to be?
My vote is about me, not him.
May '12
Re: Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
Gov. Romney will win when he talks about himself and puts out firm conservative policies and principles.
If all we or Gov. Romney talk about is Obama and his campaign then be ready for Obama II. Somewhere the light bulb is going to have to come on at Romney headquarters: This is not 1994, the USA is not MA, and Barack Obama is not Ted Kennedy. Stop playing not to lose or you will.
Mar '11
Re: Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
I think we're going to lose because Romney is a bad POTUS candidate. He may make a good working President, but he's a lousy candidate. And to get to the office, you have to win the election. And Romney has a mostly-losing history of running for offices. He's won one time in 20 years of chasing various offices. He's not a natural leader. He's a manager. You usually don't win the Presidency with managers. Simply being the most competent isn't enough in a Presidential election. You have to lead and inspire, and Romney does neither.
May '12
Re: Mitt, It Just Ain't Working
Question for the Poll experts: Every poll I've read recently except Rasmussen shows Obama leading including a recent Fox News Poll showing Obama +9. Why do we all keep deluding ourselves with 'polls are wrong', or are they only correct when the person we support is in the lead?
I assume most of these polling agencies are in business to make a profit. Fabricating misleading results doesn't seem a sound business strategy.