Minnesota Shutdown Diary 1: The Foreshadowing
First, let me apologize for being gone for a couple of months. As you may have heard, we in Minnesota are experiencing a shutdown of state government. I notice Ricochet, though having several Minnesota writers, doesn't have a conversation going on about this battle between Democrat Governor Mark Dayton (Democratic-Farmer-Laborer, to be precise) and a Republican legislature. The battle turns on Governor Dayton's desire to raise taxes on the wealthy, and the Republican's utter rejection of the notion.
As some readers may already know, I have a front row seat to this, literally. I am a member of the Minnesota House of Representatives, and my seat is in the front row, to the right of the speaker's rostrum. That fact will play a role in a moment.
Governor Dayton won a very close three-way race over the Republican Tom Emmer and an independent candidate thought to be more of a moderate Republican in Tom Horner. Dayton won with 43% of the vote and about 9000 more than Emmer out of more than two million cast. His main platform was for a tax increase; in one memorable instance when asked about a tax credit for veterans at a veterans' event, he said the government could not afford it.
Meanwhile, the legislative races in Minnesota swept in many new Republicans (19 new GOP senators, 33 representatives including two returning to office from time away.) This gave slim majorities for Republicans in both houses; in the Senate, this was the first time Republicans controlled the body since partisan elections had begun in the 1970s. In many campaigns including my own, reducing the size of government was a promise, and pledging to not vote for a tax increase was practically mandatory.
You could have seen it coming. Obviously someone did when a moderator of a gubernatorial debate put the question baldly to Mr. Dayton, as you will see here from a KSTP TV story done on May 27 of this year.
We all say things during campaigns, and even during debates, that at some point we don't quite mean. Democrats have said that this really doesn't mean Dayton broke a promise because he's trimmed the size of his tax increase (we'll get to that in another post this week) and I would imagine he didn't think he'd end up with a fully Republican legislature to battle with.
Next February, though, with both legislative bodies assembled, Dayton gave his first State of the State address. Early in his speech he gave this comment about shutting down government. Watch:
As I mentioned at the outset, I sit in the front row, though we had senators in chairs in front of me. I distinctly recall looking at two other legislators in the room and giving them a "huh?" look. It just seemed odd. Sure, the chair of the House Health and Human Services Committee had taken time at the end of a meeting with his mostly-new crew to explain why they had to come up with a budget, that not doing so was really a bad thing. But Governor Dayton seized on that to implore us not to shut down government when in fact it was the thing we wanted least to do.
I spoke with a few others after the speech had ended about the comment. Most agreed it was odd but quirky comments happen occasionally with Dayton, so we mostly shrugged it off. Months later now, it feels like foreshadowing. As you'll see in later entries, other occasions brought more hints that July 1 would be a bad day for Minnesota.
For those that want to follow the story, I should mention that John Hinderaker and his partner Scott Johnson, both of the Twin Cities, have tried to make this story known to a national audience through their blog Powerline. I've given them a little material and they've dug up a good bit more, particularly on media bias in coverage of the shutdown. Their coverage is organized on this page and is the usual Powerline-good. My former blogging colleagues at True North -- an aggregator of right Minnesota blogs -- are blogging up a storm on the shutdown as well. The House and Senate GOP caucuses have organized a Facebook page called Call Us Back To Work requesting a special session that only Dayton can call -- please 'like' it.
No matter what, please stay tuned, because this story gets more bizarre. Tomorrow's episode: The menu.
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Comments :
May '10
Re: Minnesota Shutdown Diary 1: The Foreshadowing
Is this part of a national Democratic strategy? Or is it probably Governor Dayton's own idea to portray Republicans as wanting a government shutdown?
May '10
Re: Minnesota Shutdown Diary 1: The Foreshadowing
Actually, this is the Minnesota DFL strategy to win back control of the legislature- shut it down with the connivance of the alleged governor, blame it on the Republicans, and make everyone angry. Prof. Banaian, I do point out that I specifically called for Ricochet to recruit you to do exactly this. Thanks for your inside view. The Mn gubernatorial race is a fine illustration of what happens when some people stay home and others don't participate in the nomination process. http://ricochet.com/main-feed/Jerry-Brown-Could-Be-Worse/(comment)/166122#comment-166122
Re: Minnesota Shutdown Diary 1: The Foreshadowing
Aaron, Gov. Dayton does not stand for re-election until November 2014. All of the legislature must stand next November due to redistricting. Even if voters decide "throw out the incumbents" without regard to party, it is clearly worse for Republicans. I would think that is true at the national level as well. Democrats will run against dysfunction, while not accepting their role in creating it.
Duane, duly noted, with thanks.
Re: Minnesota Shutdown Diary 1: The Foreshadowing
Searching for models or precedents, I find two:
1) The federal shutdown during the late autumn and early winter of 1995 and 1996. At first, to oversimplify matters somewhat, the polls showed sinking ratings for President Clinton, but then showed sinking ratings for Speaker Gingrich and the House Republicans. If anyone won, Clinton did--and the House GOP lost seats in the 1996 election
2) The present standoff in Washington over the debt ceiling. The polling on this, as best I can make it out, shows neither the House Republicans nor President Obama unambiguously winning or losing, so I take as a proxy for the underlying political realities the actions of the White House, which in recent weeks has made concession after concession. The standoff is far from over, of course, and the White House may simply be trying to sucker the Republicans into looking like extremists. But whereas the House Republicans seemed to lose under Speaker Gingrich, they appear to be winning--so far, at least--under Speaker Boehner.
My question for you, King, is simple: Which model do you and your fellow Republicans most closely applies to the standoff between you and Gov. Dayton?
Edited on Jul 5, 2011 at 11:34pmNov '10
Re: Minnesota Shutdown Diary 1: The Foreshadowing
Thanks for your efforts. Good luck.
May '10
Re: Minnesota Shutdown Diary 1: The Foreshadowing
I sense a bad vibe here. Will voters synthesize this, the recent federal controversy, and the two 1990's shutdowns, and come to associate Republican majorities with government shutdowns?
Re: Minnesota Shutdown Diary 1: The Foreshadowing
Peter, the difficulty in making the parallel to DC is that we have a balanced budget requirement and they don't. We are the example of what happens when you hit the debt ceiling and DON'T raise it; you work on a cash-in-advance model of taxes and spending. And Democratic politicians are fond of the Washington Monument strategy -- they close the parks and rest areas while keeping hundreds of public employees as "essential", all the way to the gardener at the governor's mansion. As the diary will make clear, the governor's plan all along has been to maximize the pain of the shutdown. So too with the Obama Administration (though I think Geithner may get it more than the political advisors.) For Republicans to do well, they have to get the public to understand the Washington Monument strategy and affix blame. Because the story isn't simple, I'm worried.