Mike Murphy's Diagnosis
At the behest of the Blue Yeti -- who'd like you to know that Mike Murphy will be guesting on an upcoming episode of the Ricochet Podcast -- I offer for your consideration Mr. Murphy's diagnosis of what ails the GOP, courtesy of his latest entry at Time's Swampland blog:
The Republican challenge is not about better voter-turnout software; it is about policy. We repel Latinos, the fastest-growing voter group in the country, with our nativist opposition to immigration reform that offers a path to citizenship. We repel younger voters, who are much more secular than their parents, with our opposition to same-sex marriage and our scolding tone on social issues. And we have lost much of our once solid connection to the middle class on kitchen-table economic issues.
A debate will now rage inside the GOP between the purists, who will as always call for more purity, and the pragmatists, who will demand modernization. The media, always culturally alien to intra-Republican struggles, will badly mislabel this contest as one between “moderate” and “right-wing” Republicans. In fact, the epic battle we Republicans face now is a choice between two definitions of conservatism.
One offers steadfast opposition to emerging social trends like multiculturalism and secularization. The alternative is a more secular and modernizing conservatism that eschews most social issues to focus on creating a wide-open opportunity society that promises greater economic freedom and the reform of government institutions like schools that are vital to upward social mobility.
Over at Bloomberg, Josh Barro dissents:
The Republican Party's key electoral problem doesn't come from social conservatives or nativists. It comes from the economic policy demands of the party's wealthy donors. Murphy allows that Republicans "have lost much of our once solid connection to the middle class on kitchen-table economic issues." But his prescription won't do anything to fix that problem.
What are the "kitchen-table" economic concerns of the middle class? They're high unemployment, slow income growth, underwater mortgages, and the rising cost of health care and higher education. Democrats have an agenda that is responsive to these concerns. Republicans don't -- and they don't because the party's donor class specifically doesn't want one.
Have you spoken with a wealthy Republican donor in the last few years? By and large, they are outraged about Obamacare, easy money and stimulus spending -- that is, at policies aimed at easing middle class families' economic situations. They are often delusionally convinced that the country faces imminent economic collapse. What they believe will prevent that collapse is tight money, spending cuts and continued tax cuts for the rich. And so long as Republicans pursue those goals, they will be the party of anti-middle class economic policy.
Now, both Murphy and Barro are not exactly known for towing the standard conservative line. But everyone seems to agree that something needs to be done. How perceptive do you find the analysis here? What are they getting wrong? And what alternative strategies might you propose?
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Comments:
Nov '10
Re: Mike Murphy's Diagnosis
Benjamin Glaser: Mike Murphy and his "consultant" class just want to win elections. They don't really care about policies and the effect thereof. They only ideology they identify with is winning and it is how we got massive deficits under George W. Bush and why Ronald Reagan was talked into his amnesty program.
I think it is time for the "consultant" class to find a different line of work.
Um, sorry. I don't believe they even really want to win elections--if they did, they might figure out a way to win a few more than they actually do. What they want is to keep making lots of money advising rich candidates.
May '12
Re: Mike Murphy's Diagnosis
Listening to Mike Murphy give advice about what the GOP should do is a bit like listening to Paris Hilton give a lecture about astrophysics-Much ado about nothing.
Edited on November 30, 2012 at 12:27amMar '11
Re: Mike Murphy's Diagnosis
One "Like" ain't near enough for that remark.
Dec '10
Re: Mike Murphy's Diagnosis
Setting Barro aside, Murphy is often interesting. He gets some things
pretty right.
But then he says that the latino vote is the fastest growing demographic, which may not be true, from the numbers I have read. After that, he blankets people like me with, "nativist." My avatar is me at two, in Ecuador, where I was born. I don't have any issue with Latinos, especially considering where I was born. And I don't much caew where other people were born.
All around the world, people line up and try to enter this country, legally. Obama's gift has been to reduce those lines without streamlining the bureaucracy, but by making America less attractive.
Line-jumping is wrong. It's really one of the most basic things a society can be organized around. If somebody obeys the law and stands in line, but the government muscles them aside to make room for somebody that was less scupulous, what is the purpose of this government we organize around?
Jun '12
Re: Mike Murphy's Diagnosis
Definitely agree that we need to work from the bottom up. The professional message makers, unsurprisingly, are still peddling the message that the problem was the message. It's called job security.
The problem is the attitude of voters has measurably shifted towards embracing European style welfare state policies. By the time these issues reach the level of a national election we're already one foot in the grave because the electorate is pre-programmed. All the Dems have to do is say, "Yes, we know what you want and we'll give it to you." Our response is "Yes, we know what you want, it's bad for you, so how 'bout this cold plate of broccoli?"
Until we can figure out some way to move the ideological tide, I don't think we can stick to the few principles we have remaining and win elections. I suggest the apparatus of the Republican party shift its focus to getting staunch conservatives into local school boards and sponsoring conservative academics. This is a war of ideas. We need to fight it were those ideas are formed.
Aug '11
Re: Mike Murphy's Diagnosis
Some assume that Republicans can continue to crap all over social conservatives, and they'll still show up to vote. Quite possibly the 2012 election proved that's not the case.
Jun '12
Re: Mike Murphy's Diagnosis
Josh Barro -
"They're high unemployment, slow income growth, underwater mortgages, and the rising cost of health care and higher education. Democrats have an agenda that is responsive to these concerns. Republicans don't -- and they don't because the party's donor class specifically doesn't want one."
This is spectacuraly wrong. It is precisely these Democratic policies that are destroying the middle class. None of these programs benefit the middle class even in the short term. They serve to destroy the value of all assets a middle class person can attain, and eventually will lead to much higher inflation, the single factor most destructive of membership in the middle class. These policies destroy jobs, force them overseas, and cause millions of middle class persons to be underemployed.
Sep '12
Re: Mike Murphy's Diagnosis
To be fair to Barro, his description is correct if you say Democratic Parties are designed to appear as if they will deal with the problems of the middle class. They are responsive to those issues...it's just that, like a holistic medicine man prescribing acinacea to a cancer victim, their prescriptions will not solve the problem.
Dec '10
Re: Mike Murphy's Diagnosis
John Hanson: Josh Barro -
"They're high unemployment, slow income growth, underwater mortgages, and the rising cost of health care and higher education. Democrats have an agenda that is responsive to these concerns. Republicans don't -- and they don't because the party's donor class specifically doesn't want one."
This is spectacuraly wrong. It is precisely these Democratic policies that are destroying the middle class. None of these programs benefit the middle class even in the short term. They serve to destroy the value of all assets a middle class person can attain, and eventually will lead to much higher inflation, the single factor most destructive of membership in the middle class. These policies destroy jobs, force them overseas, and cause millions of middle class persons to be underemployed. · 4 minutes ago
You're right but they are sold and eaten up as middle-class relief. I assume that is his point.
Mar '11
Re: Mike Murphy's Diagnosis
As has been stated here and elsewhere, Hispanics didn't cost Romney the election. We conservatives must remember political consultants of both parties never let a serious crisis go to waste. Except, this isn't a serious crisis. But, they'd have us believe otherwise. The National Debt is a serious crisis. Losing an election isn't.
Yes, Romney lost a winnable race. But, I think it was more a factor of him and his campaign managers than the Republican Party, conservatism, or any other factor. The truth is many people decided to not vote for Obama 2012 who voted for him in 2008.
The problem: those people couldn't see themselves voting for Romney either. That's how Gary Johnson got over a million votes--a 100 percent improvement for Libertarians over 2008 even though overall voting for 2012 was down. That's how the total votes for all the Republican Representatives' in OH outnumbered Romney's total there. That's how, after all the spending, Romney only received about 600,000 more votes than McCain. And McCain ran against The One in original form.
Remember: it's the Democrats who got less votes this time. A lot less.
Apr '12
Re: Mike Murphy's Diagnosis
Scott Brown, Linda McMahon, Tommy Thompson, and Connie Mack all lost by big margins. Mitt Romney was the epitome of non-threatening Republican. Obviously it was the social cons fault!
Apr '12
Re: Mike Murphy's Diagnosis
How about this for an alternative thesis - Although he repulses most of us, Obama is personally attractive to a majority our country and it is awfully hard to beat the incumbent party after just one term in power. Lets see what happens in 2014, when Obama becomes a lame duck, when the liberals overreach, and when we nominate Rubio.
Sep '10
Re: Mike Murphy's Diagnosis
Why, yes, it is. Its called the Kesler-Murphy Test and I'm curious what Mike's test score is. Takers, anyone? That way, instead of endlessly triangulating with Democrats as the slightly less spendaholic party, you can jettison troglodyte social conservatives for good, and enjoy the whirlwind.
If you aren't interested in the Founding Documents then its hard to see what the difference is between the two parties as Charles Kesler discussed on Uncommon Knowledge with Peter Robinson awhile back.
No need to thank me.
Jan '11
Re: Mike Murphy's Diagnosis
Murphy is exactly right on every point. The American populace has changed.
There was a recent by-election in Calgary, Alberta, Canada - once thought to be a bullet-proof Conservative riding, the safest in the country. The Conservative candidate got 36.9% of the vote, but luckily there was vote splitting between the Liberals and the Green Party. The Green Party candidate got 25.6% of the votes. Unbelievable, that really scares me.
So please, anti-Murphy people, get your heads out of the sand. Things are not the same as they were when we were young. I don't like losing. Let's plan for a win.
Nov '10
Re: Mike Murphy's Diagnosis
Reading these replies has boosted my morale a great deal. Thanks Ricochet Cohort! Murphy reminds me of the New York consultants that the Banks I worked for hired: plenty of consensus, plenty of cost, zero creative ideas.
Aug '10
Re: Mike Murphy's Diagnosis
"We repel Latinos, the fastest-growing voter group in the country, with our nativist opposition to immigration...", Mike Murphy is dead on.
I expect to see a plethora of ad hominen non-responses to this clear and undeniable fact, but derogating Murphy changes nothing.
I've read some appallingly tone deaf comments whenever this subject comes up.
The latest meme I see emerging on the right is a variation of the old Goofus and Gallant cartoons in the back of Highlights magazine: Mexican Goofus sucks up all the welfare, Cuban Gallant is an entrepreneur.
I suppose that is better than Herman Cain's double electric fence, or some mythical self-deporting abuelita, but not by much.
Pushing your foot down your throat is not the best way to get it out your mouth.
People know when they are not wanted. And they vote accordingly.
Edited on November 30, 2012 at 2:34amOct '10
Re: Mike Murphy's Diagnosis
Alternative strategies? You mean like those spelled out here and here?
Yeah, I've read plenty of alternative strategies here, from some very smart, insightful, creative Ricos. Too bad the GOP braintrust (and I use that term loosely, very loosely) will never listen beyond their own echo chamber.
Oct '10
Re: Mike Murphy's Diagnosis
Majestyk
No. He's a Republican who has in some sense "sold out" for the purpose of making sure he has a place at the table after the inevitable loss. To listen to Murphy he's essentially given up on ANY notion of conservatism winning a national election - that in order to win we have to sell out everything that we have stood for.
He's become their pet. Look whom he gives an interview to: TIME magazine? Who the hell reads TIME magazine but twelve people and prisoners in doctor's offices? TIME is only an appropriate title because reading it is interminable, as it is one of the few unreformed bastions of the old liberal journalism and is justly vanishing. · 2 hours ago
Has anyone ever seen Mike Murphy and Bob Michel in the same room?
May '10
Re: Mike Murphy's Diagnosis
I'm all in favor of legal immigration for people with skills (be they brain surgery or dry-walling) who can make a solid contribution to the country. All I hear when I hear the Republican consultants and commentators talk about immigration is "We'll give away free stuff and then Latinos will love us; and if you play by the rules, more fool you, chump."
As for immanent financial collapse, what does Murphy think is going to happen when we flat out run out of money? And how far away does he think that is when we owe $16++ trillion and are borrowing more (mainly by inflating the money supply because nobody wants to lend us the real stuff) at a rate of $1+ trillion a year.
Aug '12
Re: Mike Murphy's Diagnosis
It never ceases to amaze how many solutions that journalists, and other political analysts make that basically calls for the GOP to become the Democrat Lite Party, which will not win elections since it will repel the conservative base, while simultaneously offering the liberal base a more enticing choice-the Democratic Party. (Not to mention the godawful impact Americans and freedom writ large.)
I think the biggest threat to conservative electoral success (and more importantly the strength and future viability of a non-statist America) is the insecurity felt by the single parent household. Voters are willing to trade their freedom, and vote higher taxes on others to feel psychologically and economically secure.
Whether using the tax code to heavily incentivize marriage or 'going big' with some sort of conservative legislation that forces people to rely upon their own invested money, the GOP has to have a piece of legislation that shatters dependency on government. Otherwise, Democratic presidents will keep ramming through redistributive programs that mass produce clients-voters, while bankrupting the US morally and economically.