Mexico is Fast Becoming a Failed State
We're levying sanctions on Syria. We're bombing and blockading Libya. These countries are about 6000 miles from Washington, DC.
80 miles south of Brownsville, TX, on the other hand, Mexico is falling apart. From today's LATimes:
At least 177 corpses have been recovered in the last few weeks, most of them, officials now say, passengers snatched from interstate buses, tortured and slaughtered. Women were raped before being killed, and some victims were burned alive, according to accounts from survivors who eventually overcame their fears and came forward.
The slayings have horrified a Mexican public already awash in violence and led commentators to call them "our Auschwitz" and a "Mexican genocide."
Worse yet is the realization that the killing in Tamaulipas state has been going on for months — including the brutal slayings of bus passengers — and no one, not the bus companies, nor the police, nor the officials in charge, acted to stop it.
There's more. Enough to make Qaddafy blush:
After the massacre last year of 72 mostly Central American immigrants near San Fernando, the government of President Felipe Calderon promised the world, including angry Central American authorities, that justice would be done and the popular routes through northern Mexico toward the United States would be guarded.
It now appears, however, that the killings continued, and not just of immigrants but Mexican citizens and, perhaps, a handful of Americans. On Wednesday, authorities said they had rescued a group of 68 Mexicans and Central Americans who had been seized by gangsters from buses or from bus stations in the same area.
The motives behind the bus kidnappings remain unclear. Gangs may seize the passengers hoping to extort money from them, to forcibly recruit them or because they are searching for rivals.
The killings have galvanized an unusual if belated consensus, even among conservative commentators and politicians, that parts of Mexico have indeed been lost to criminal gangs such as the Zetas and the Gulf cartel that control (and are battling each other to dominate) the northeast. What does it mean, they ask, when the federal government cannot keep the nation's highways safe from brazen predators?
Even worse is the near-certainty that the police who are meant to be protectors have been involved. Among the more than 50 people arrested in connection with the latest killings are 17 local police officers accused of providing protection to the cartel gunmen believed responsible.
Let's face facts: the southern border of the United States faces a rapidly deteriorating lawless state. It's not getting better -- despite years of assurances from the top-level of the Mexican government -- it's getting worse -- because of the corruption and lawlessness of every other level of the Mexican government.
At some point, probably sooner than we think, we're going to have to do something to protect the southern edge of the United States from the kind of anarchy and violent chaos the Mexican people have unleashed on themselves.
Libya and Syria are 6000 miles away. San Fernando is 80 miles away. We're kidding ourselves if we think this is just going to resolve itself.
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Jan '11
Re: Mexico is Fast Becoming a Failed State
There is so much to lament - it takes a relatively short time to break or destabilize a society, but a correspondingly longer time to rebuild it. The hundreds/thousands brutally murdered in Mexico will have ripple effects with family and friends. As mentioned, police officers have likely been involved (often under threat that they and their families would be killed). The perpetrators will likely escape justice, leading to an irredeemably fractured society. The problem is not easily containable. It is just so tragic. Can't we just talk about Lindsay Lohan? :-(
Re: Mexico is Fast Becoming a Failed State
I agree--and say so as someone much closer, right now, to the Syrian border than to the Mexican border. But what does "doing something" entail, in your view?
Dec '10
Re: Mexico is Fast Becoming a Failed State
Its a sad day when the best case scenario I can think of, is for Mexico to become such a disaster that the US has to go in and do some nation building like in Japan or Iraq. Rebuilt countries at least start out more economically free than the rest of the world and Mexico, unlike Iraq or Afghanistan, actually has a history of democracy. Would be nice to share the continent with an economic power house akin to France or Germany rather than a borderline third world country.
Re: Mexico is Fast Becoming a Failed State
My Mexican grandparents who presently reside in the U.S. had planned on making a trip back to their home in central Mexico via bus last week. However, after learning about the gruesome details of the San Fernando massacre (WARNING: Story includes extremely graphic and disturbing details, and bad language), my uncle pleaded with my grandparents to postpone their trip until they could make reservations for a direct flight.
I hadn't heard of the San Fernando massacre until my mom related the story to me yesterday, and though the story is on dozens of English and Spanish language blogs, I can't find a legitimate newspaper that corroborates the story. However, news reports confirm that many of the victims found in mass graves died from head trauma, which lends some degree of credence to the account found at the above link.
Edited on Apr 25, 2011 at 11:42amRe: Mexico is Fast Becoming a Failed State
I hate to say it, but US troops on the border. For the president of Mexico to declare a state of emergency (or civil war, which is more accurate) and to ask the US Air Force for coordinated bombing of gang outposts.
Nasty, ugly, and unprecedented. But, honestly, the only way to protect the southern border of the United States.
Re: Mexico is Fast Becoming a Failed State
Not entirely unprecedented. Remember Pancho Villa!
Re: Mexico is Fast Becoming a Failed State
Thanks, Professor! Of course. But those were, somehow, more innocent times.
Feb '11
Re: Mexico is Fast Becoming a Failed State
Since this is Ricohet, I would feel remiss if I didn’t bring up a libertarian solution.
I have no objections to Rob’s suggestion of troops on the border, but there is an additional step that would have big benefits. Keep in mind that all the violence is paid for and spurred by drug money. That is, for the sake of making it slightly harder for you or your neighbor’s kid to get cocaine or crystal meth, we’re unleashing a blood bath in Mexico.
If most drugs were legally obtainable the way we currently get Sudafed (you have to show ID at the pharmacy counter but don’t need a prescription) there is no question that more people would become addicts and destroy their lives. How many more is an open question. But the crime and violence surrounding the drug trade would vanish, and those whose lives are destroyed would at least be their own victims.
I’m curious what Ricocheteers think. Is drug prohibition worth it?
Oct '10
Re: Mexico is Fast Becoming a Failed State
Re, Rob Long. From a retired IT fella who spends most of his days in Mexico and has followed the cartel dealings for good reason. Just placing troops on the border makes for PR and solves nothing... Consider the massive economic link between the countries and what would be required to truly ensure public safey, maintain trade and quash in part cartels. US troops would need to move as far south as Monterrey and maintain a presence. Places such as Reyenosa as well. Then address the control of the cartel inflence in the Western Mexican areas. Doubtful the Mexican Government would agree to an occupation on this scale. Now this is odd, it makes more sense to invade Mexico to protect US interests and protect lives than any other far away Nation State.
If the US were to take such actions it would perhaps have a Love, Hate outcome on the surface. But we would be there a very long time ..
Will be driving to Austin early next month to visit old freinds, wish me good fortune !!!
Apr '11
Re: Mexico is Fast Becoming a Failed State
Albert Fuchs: Since this is Ricohet, I would feel remiss if I didn’t bring up a libertarian solution.
I’m curious what Ricocheteers think. Is drug prohibition worth it? · Apr 25 at 12:23pm
Not if there is going to be federally mandated drug rehab in the Obamacare legislation. (one more reason this idea belongs on the ash heap of history)
Nov '10
Re: Mexico is Fast Becoming a Failed State
Angelo Codevilla has a very good article on this in the current Claremont Review of Books.
May '10
Re: Mexico is Fast Becoming a Failed State
Isn't Mexico an important oil supplier to the United States? What happens if and when the anarchy there threatens our petroleum supplies?
Mar '11
Re: Mexico is Fast Becoming a Failed State
Albert Fuchs:
I have no objections to Rob’s suggestion of troops on the border, but there is an additional step that would have big benefits. Keep in mind that all the violence is paid for and spurred by drug money. That is, for the sake of making it slightly harder for you or your neighbor’s kid to get cocaine or crystal meth, we’re unleashing a blood bath in Mexico.
If most drugs were legally obtainable the way we currently get Sudafed (you have to show ID at the pharmacy counter but don’t need a prescription) there is no question that more people would become addicts and destroy their lives. How many more is an open question. But the crime and violence surrounding the drug trade would vanish, and those whose lives are destroyed would at least be their own victims.
Completely agree. Nothing could be worse then what we have now. If ending the war on drugs means an end to this, so be it. There isn't a single adolescent who can't easily get a hold of marijuana anyways.
Its either that or the military solution. At this point I would support either one.
Edited on Apr 25, 2011 at 2:22pmApr '11
Re: Mexico is Fast Becoming a Failed State
One observation and two alternative solutions. As others have pointed out, the demand here fuels the violence down south. We can either legalize almost everything and accept a permanent drug culture in the US, or we can initiate a real war on drugs to include troops on the border and stiffer penalties (if that's even possible) for use/sales of everyting but pot.
Dec '10
Re: Mexico is Fast Becoming a Failed State
As Daniel Franks noted, there is the oil issue. Also, Carlos Slim owns a considerable share of the New York Times. CFLs are becoming unpopular and GE has closed its last American factory producing incandescent light bulbs, but they make them in Mexico. Plus a hundred other deep economic entanglements.
As to potentially impacting American oil imports, I'm pretty sure Obama would consider a deteriorating situation in Mexico a feature, not a bug.
For decades, we have absorbed what would elsewhere be called a "refugee crisis", from Mexico and points south. Mexico, in particular, seems to be at war with its own citizens, especially those that have the least European blood in their lines. Our "immigration" problem is their ethnic cleansing. When I see folks that are obviously migrant workers, they do not look like Slim, or Calderon. The ethnic angle of what is transpiring is overlooked, mostly. I think that forensic analysis of the remains from most of these terrible events would yield an interesting correlation, anthropologically. Sure, "Hidalgos" (pure European) and meztizos (mixed) would be scattered in the data, but I would bet a cup of Starbuck's coffee that they are almost all "Native American".
Apr '11
Re: Mexico is Fast Becoming a Failed State
Rob, this has been going on for twenty years. In Juarez, a spitting distance from El Paso, not even 80 miles away, at least 1000 young teenage girls-- innocent, 12-16 year old girls-- have been abducted, held hostage, tortured and raped to death and thrown in ditches and shallow graves. With this being this many girls, this can only a service provided by big rollers there in Mexico.
And guess what?
No one cares...
Feb '11
Re: Mexico is Fast Becoming a Failed State
If the Feds officially noticed Mexico's descent into bloody chaos they'd have to explain why they aren't taking action.
If they got a-talkin' about that they'd have to discuss why the border isn't secured.
Blather about family values not stopping at the Rio Grande and the DREAM act won't cut it when the subject is a low level war spreading into the US. People would demand troops on the border with guns, bullets, and the willingness to use them.
This would put a major crimp in the open borders philosophy of the political class.
They don't want that. So they ignore the problem.
Oct '10
Re: Mexico is Fast Becoming a Failed State
No one cares... Is a key point, Why should we care about the beligerence and murderous activities of our coveted Southern neighbor, then move about the globe and offer our services to others ?
Any takers ? Not likely...
Feb '11
Re: Mexico is Fast Becoming a Failed State
CJRun, its interesting that you have noted the increasingly obvious migration of indigenous people from Mexico. Its has become more obvious here in SoCal. The first migration waves were primarily of meztizo populations but not anymore. The other day my father and I went to a local mall and were asked for a donation (essestially panhandling) by young Spanish speaking indigenous men (note: not all indigenous people speak Spanish). We were shocked by this and I realized that things may get really ugly if these young men don't return to their native country.
Apr '11
Re: Mexico is Fast Becoming a Failed State
Back in the early 90's a guy I worked with was telling me he had left what is basically the service town for Cozumel. He had a job and a good education, and he still got out because it was falling apart even then.
But either people other than poor VDH and Chris Burgard can get the word out (such as, oh, I don't know, folks who work in Hollywood) no will care..
But those people are already here. And with no real border security, there's no reason for even more of them not to flee the Mexican army right into the US.