Meanwhile, in Istanbul
This is the consequence of an unbelievably stupid decision by the Supreme Election Board to bar the independent Kurdish candidate Hatip Dicle from Parliament. In a column with which I fully agree, Mustafa Akyol calls this yet another judicial blow to democracy:
All of this seems to be yet another blow to democracy by Turkey’s illiberal laws and illiberal judges. But it is none other than the governing AKP who needs to find a solution. They should urgently promise to do that, and, once Parliament convenes, should lead the legal arrangements that will allow all their elected opponents take their seats. If they do that, they will prove democratic and noble. Otherwise, they will look unprincipled and opportunistic.
How they will look is not the key question, however, it's what will happen. Nuray Mert has also written a piece with which I agree:
The newborn political crisis, which was triggered by the decision of the Supreme Election Board, or YSK, to strip some new elected MPs of eligibility to join the Parliament, cannot simply be explained away by “carelessness” of the judiciary. ... Nobody can claim this is an “accidental crisis.” It is rather the beginning of a very risky power game.
And as Mehmet Ali Birand points out--in a view from which there is little dissent here, I might add--if the AKP fails to address this intelligently, "Not only the Southeast but also the streets of big cities like Istanbul will turn into a fireball."
President Gül is calling for calm. It may be too little, too late.
We'll see.
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Apr '11
Re: Meanwhile, in Istanbul
"Turkish officials informed several western powers that Ankara might launch a military operation in northern Syria in an attempt to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad’s Baath Party, Kuwaiti newspaper As-Seyassah reported on Monday.
“Turkey informed Britain, France, Italy, Germany and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) leadership of the possibility that it would launch an offensive in… Aleppo, Homs, Hama and Latakia,” the daily quoted unnamed British officials as saying.
The daily also quoted a Lebanese diplomat in Ankara as saying that “Turkish officials fear the possibility of the Syrian army committing mistakes on its borders, which might oblige the Turkish army to cross the Syrian border.”
“The Turkish armed forces are on alert along the Syrian borders,” As-Seyassah added."
http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=286033#ixzz1QT5CCKVH
Re: Meanwhile, in Istanbul
Can you find other sources for this? Why would "unnamed British officials" leak to As-Seyassah?
Nov '10
Re: Meanwhile, in Istanbul
Well, to echo other members in the past, I hope you stay safe, Claire. Perhaps it's time for another long trip somewhere?
Apr '11
Re: Meanwhile, in Istanbul
http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=ar&u=http://www.al-seyassah.com/AtricleView/tabid/59/smid/438/ArticleID/135028/reftab/36/Default.aspx&ei=BmsITsORKqr50gGohuXFCw&sa=X&oi=translate&ct=result&resnum=2&sqi=2&ved=0CB8Q7gEwAQ&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dsite:al-seyassah.com%2BAs-Seyassah%2B2011%26hl%3Den%26safe%3Doff%26biw%3D1271%26bih%3D877%26prmd%3Divns
Re: Meanwhile, in Istanbul
I don't believe this report. They'd shut off the water first.
Apr '11
Re: Meanwhile, in Istanbul
That last link was not correct, I'm wrestling with Google translate and Arabic.
Here is Hillary Clinton on Friday, listen to the subtext:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/video/2011/jun/24/syria-protests-hillary-clinton-video?intcmp=239
Edited on Jun 27, 2011 at 5:08amApr '11
Re: Meanwhile, in Istanbul
Here is what I'm beginning to see as a possibility. Western, Sunni axis powers and Turkey are worried that Iran will not let Syria fall but will up the ante, possibly with incursion from the east. I know there are reports that Hezbollah has begun to move all their arms from Syria in to the Baaka Valley.
The counter move would be a move from the west either via NATO, UN R2P or Turkish national interest. The only sovereign with that kind of military power is Turkey.
There is a good report that the Commanding General of the Turkish Second Army has visited the Syrian-Turkish border very recently.
"Turkey's 2nd Army Commander visited the Guvecci border post this week to take stock of Syrian troop deployments near the border and to see the situation of the refugees for himself"
http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Turkey+loses+patience+over+Syria+weighs+options/5008139/story.html#ixzz1QTkmv8VB
http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/report-hezbollah-moves-missiles-from-syria-to-lebanon-fearing-fall-of-assad-regime-1.369586
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=syria-chides-turkey-amid-ongoing-unrest-2011-06-26
Apr '11
Re: Meanwhile, in Istanbul
Turkey, Syria and the Kurds (Kurdistan)
"one of the major looming issues for Turkish security planners is how the chaos, and the threat of Syrian collapse, will impact Turkey's domestic Kurdish problem and the fight against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK)."
"if Syria were to destabilise further, the PKK could find a new safe haven in Syria or amongst the Syrian Kurds, similar to the situation in northern Iraq," Saban Kardas, assistant professor of international relations at TOBB University of Economics and Technology, told SETimes."
http://www.setimes.com/cocoon/setimes/xhtml/en_GB/features/setimes/features/2011/06/22/feature-03
"One Turkish soldier was killed and three wounded in an attack by the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, as its jailed leader threatened war after six pro-Kurdish deputies were barred from parliament."
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2011/06/27/bloomberg1376-LNFYOY1A74E901-2K2L5DDAIBGNJ14ARQMN4SD83K.DTL#ixzz1QTtofSAn
Apr '11
Re: Meanwhile, in Istanbul
Syria: An act of desperation?
"On Friday, the Turkish government held an emergency security meeting in Ankara to discuss the latest Syrian troop movements near its borders.
A statement subsequently released by the Turkish foreign minister confirmed that Ankara is keeping a close eye on these developments and had called the Syrian ambassador to Turkey to notify him of its concerns."
http://english.aljazeera.net/programmes/insidestory/2011/06/201162682226319651.html
Apr '11
Re: Meanwhile, in Istanbul
Report: Turkey tells West it might launch offensive against Syria
"Earlier, a columnist for Lebanese daily al-Akhbar, said to be close to Hezbollah, claimed that Iran had threatened Turkey that if it were to be used as a platform for NATO action against Syria, then Iran would bomb US and NATO bases in Turkey. A columnist for the newspaper also said Iran sees the preservation of the Syrian regime as the preservation of the Iranian and Lebanese governments."
http://www.todayszaman.com/news-248653-report-turkey-tells-west-it-might-launch-offensive-against-syria.html
Re: Meanwhile, in Istanbul
Viator: Report: Turkey tells West it might launch offensive against Syria
"Earlier, a columnist for Lebanese daily al-Akhbar, said to be close to Hezbollah, claimed that Iran had threatened Turkey that if it were to be used as a platform for NATO action against Syria, then Iran would bomb US and NATO bases in Turkey. A columnist for the newspaper also said Iran sees the preservation of the Syrian regime as the preservation of the Iranian and Lebanese governments."
http://www.todayszaman.com/news-248653-report-turkey-tells-west-it-might-launch-offensive-against-syria.html · Jun 27 at 8:00am
I posted that item on Ricochet a few days ago, remember? I'm not sure what to make of it. It doesn't fill me with relaxed thoughts.
Apr '11
Re: Meanwhile, in Istanbul
No, Ms. Berlinski I missed that. As for the situation it seems to require one or more hard men to say uncle. I don't think they will.
Re: Meanwhile, in Istanbul
I'm going to be cautious about speculating because so many of these stories are popping up in unlikely places with strange sourcing. It's not a good situation, but I also don't trust many of these rumors.
It's should scare the wits out of anyone paying attention, though.
Apr '11
Re: Meanwhile, in Istanbul
It also presents an opportunity of sorts. If, as some say, Iran will have enough material for a bomb in a few months this might be an opening for those - Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iraq, Egypt, Jordan, EU, US, Gulf States, Afghanistan, non-Shia Lebanon, possibly others - who would prefer that not happen. Deals might be struck, markers given and received, temporary alliances forged. One can see how, if events went a certain way, there would be clear winners. However, events seldom go a certain way.
As for your post #13 the resistance in Syria seems to be growing weekly, that is a fact. This will drive events. If the trend continues Assad, his family and clique are doomed.This will in turn drive other events as power shifts. Maybe, for instance, there will be a military coup in Syria but I expect Iran would prevent that. The Quds Force are well established in Syria. Seems to have all the elements of a Greek tragedy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quds_Force
Edited on Jun 27, 2011 at 10:11amApr '11
Re: Meanwhile, in Istanbul
Syria: a cornered Assad is losing his marbles
"The only whiff of truth in Assad’s speech was about the Syrian economy. This time of year, Umayyad Mosque in Damascus is teeming with Brits, Germans and French, all now behind EU sanctions and trying to squeeze a Security Council resolution past China and Russia (Dmitry Medvedev: “I feel sorry for president al-Assad who is in a very difficult situation now”).
If this keeps up, Syria will be Greece with better pita.
What Assad didn’t say was this: How I am going to pay my soldiers to kill everyone if everyone doesn’t return to work soon? How am I going to finance a war with Turkey that my brother Maher seems determined to have? And how long can I keep up the charade with the Army, when the scales are falling from the eyes of my officer class?"
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/michaelweiss/100093772/syria-a-cornered-assad-is-losing-his-marbles/