Long's Second Law of Winning Elections: Fire the Help
Back in June, the Gingrich '12 campaign collapsed in a hopeless muddle. His top advisors defected from his doomed Republican primary bid, and went to work for the dynamic and unstoppable Texas Governor Rick Perry. From Politico, early last June:
Newt Gingrich’s top staff quit en masse Thursday, throwing into question whether his already troubled presidential campaign can continue.
Two sources close to the situation confirmed that campaign manager Rob Johnson, strategists Sam Dawson and Dave Carney, spokesman Rick Tyler and consultants Katon Dawson in South Carolina and Craig Schoenfeld in Iowa quit to protest what one called a “different vision” for the campaign.
How'd that work out?
Sometimes, change is a good thing. Sometimes, it's a good idea to shake up the help.
Mitt Romney could learn that lesson. His top advisor, Stuart Stevens, has been a never-ending cascade of bad advice and self-promotion. The candidate himself has flaws, of course, but it's hard not to look at the hapless and inspiration-free Romney campaign and not think: fire the help.
Bain Consultant Mitt Romney, were he hired by Candidate Mitt Romney to give some strategic advice, would surely say -- as Bain Consultant Mitt Romney said to lots of CEOs and board chairmen at faltering and poorly-managed companies -- bring in new management. Shake it up. Don't worry about the short term PR costs. Sure, they'll talk about the Romney campaign being in "disarray." They'll print headlines about the "chaos" and "panic" at Romney HQ.
But they're saying that anyway.
Fire the help.
That's Long's Second Law of Winning Elections. If the campaign management is failing, dump it. Candidates get so wrapped up in their own relationship to their advisors that they forget that elections are about, first, the voters. Only second, the candidates. And advisors aren't even on the list. Romney Campaign Inc. management has failed. Replace them.
That's what Bain Consultant Mitt Romney would say. Why can't Candidate Mitt Romney see that?
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Comments :
Aug '10
Re: Long's Second Law of Winning Elections: Fire the Help
Rob, to truly convince me, you need to provide:
One example, cited long before the election has even happened, is not a law.
Dec '10
Re: Long's Second Law of Winning Elections: Fire the Help
Perhaps all the decisions at Mitt Romney Campaign 2012 are made by the help, and they're not interested in firing themselves.
Dec '10
Re: Long's Second Law of Winning Elections: Fire the Help
Didn't you write this up for NR a couple of editions back? And, I agree. If Romney wants to regain traction he has to do something other than what he is doing. However, one of the hallmarks of Romney is that he is steadfast, which is why I don't see him taking your advice.
Aug '10
Re: Long's Second Law of Winning Elections: Fire the Help
Rob, I am curious, what is the first rule?
Dec '10
Re: Long's Second Law of Winning Elections: Fire the Help
Read down a post or two on the main feed.
Aug '10
Re: Long's Second Law of Winning Elections: Fire the Help
@TKP, yep as soon as I posted on the mobile site, I scrolled down on my phone and found it. Thanks.
May '10
Re: Long's Second Law of Winning Elections: Fire the Help
From a NYT profile of Stuart Stevens:
Mmmmmm. Given the history of the Rico-teers and Mr. Murphy, who defends whom?
Sep '10
Re: Long's Second Law of Winning Elections: Fire the Help
Is this the same Romney who may not be an inspirational leader but is a fantastic manager?
Mar '11
Re: Long's Second Law of Winning Elections: Fire the Help
Newt seems to be doing fine without any help. Maybe help always gets in the way of the candidate being who they are?
In Mitt's case, Bain Capital would no doubt recommend replacing the CEO - um, who would that be?
Oct '10
Re: Long's Second Law of Winning Elections: Fire the Help
I saw this stunning poll this morning (Gingrich up by 15 pts in Florida), and thought, "heckuva campaign your running their Mitt."
I just don't think there is an advisor who can help him. He is a very bad politician. Plain and simple.
And I am starting to think that his chances against Obama are not very good.
Aug '10
Re: Long's Second Law of Winning Elections: Fire the Help
<devil's advocate mode = on>
Then how the heck did he get elected in Massacheusetts?
<devil's advocate mode = off>
Aug '10
Re: Long's Second Law of Winning Elections: Fire the Help
There are different flavors of political consultant. The worst are the ones who don't really believe in the candidate, and therefore believe that their job is to repackage, re-train, heavily coach, and otherwise prevent the candidate from being who he or she really is. Ask Sarah Palin.
Newt Gingrich's biggest advantage - and biggest weakness - is Newt himself. People who vote for him are voting for him because he's abrasive, because he's not afraid to say what he believes, and because he's willing to skirt the boundaries of political correctness and call it like he sees it. Of course, that's exactly the same attitude that can get him in trouble.
However, if a political consultant tries to file away Newt's rough edges and get him to speak in carefully parsed, safe sentences, what have you got left? A typical politician with a lot of personal baggage. Why would anyone vote for a guy like that?
Newt has to sink or swim based on who he is, warts and all. The right campaign advisors for him are functionaries who can build an organization to support him, while letting Newt be Newt.
Oct '10
Re: Long's Second Law of Winning Elections: Fire the Help
Have you ever been tempted to run a political campaign, Rob? You clearly have an intellectual interest in it and what you've written here and talked about on the podcast indicates that you'd be very good at it. Maybe Mike Murphy has whispered sweet nothings in your year in the past..."Come...join us, Rob. Just once. You can always go back [snicker]. "
Edited on Dec 12, 2011 at 2:46pmRe: Long's Second Law of Winning Elections: Fire the Help
EJ, I call it as I see it. No one needs to point out the obvious to me. I'm a master at spotting the obvious. And Misthiocracy, you want evidence and supporting facts to buttress my argument? Where's the fun in that? I prefer to make the laws first, and the test 'em out. May not be rational, but it's a lot more adventurous.
Jul '10
Re: Long's Second Law of Winning Elections: Fire the Help
In a Newt/Mitt matchup, Newt is the agent of change and Mitt is the comforting progressive. Mitt can't clean house because it calls his present management choices into question. Newt has tossed or driven out one staff, and was pronounced dead by the usual know-nothing choir as a result. Now Newt is the phoenix from the ashes and Mitt's ridiculous run-out-the-clock strategy, months prior to the first primary, is shown up as a ludicrous joke.
I say this not as a Newt man, he has yet to rank higher than third on my list. But Mitt's comforting smooth waters and conventional progressive perspective would be the hospice pillow smothering the thrashing West.
Edited on Dec 12, 2011 at 3:25pmMar '11
Re: Long's Second Law of Winning Elections: Fire the Help
I'm not convinced Mitt changing personnel at this time, or at any time in the near future, would make much of a difference. He kind of seems to me like the Carson Palmer of American politics. He looks the part. He acts the part. He has a good lineage. He knows all the plays. He talks a good game. He impresses in practice and has even won a few games. But when it comes down to it, he underwhelms and has the aura of an underachiever even though he has a ton of money in the bank.
And just as Carson going from the Bengals to the Raiders hasn't changed his prospects for winning, it would just be more of the same should Mitt fire some people. Mitt is who he is and, just like Carson, it's not necessarily horrible. But while Reagan being Reagan was a QB rating avg. in the 130's, Romney being Romney only gets the ex-Mass. governor a QB rating in the 80's--a rating many QB's would take but the takers would be backups with clipboard in hand. And Newt already has a '94 Super Bowl ring.
May '10
Re: Long's Second Law of Winning Elections: Fire the Help
Are you the new superhero?
Jul '10
Re: Long's Second Law of Winning Elections: Fire the Help
I disagree Rob. From that NYT piece, here's Stuart Stevens:
“The economy is overwhelmingly the issue. Our whole campaign is premised on the idea that this is a referendum on Obama, the economy is a disaster and Obama is uniquely blocked from being able to talk about jobs.”
That sounds about right to me.
Why should Mitt try to present himself differently now anyway? Because Newt is on a roll? That would be an awful response.
There are already plenty of flakes in the field. Joining them would wreck Mitt, he's not a Clinton or Gingrich capable of reinventing himself every week. He wouldn't be good at it. That's (partly) why he takes such a drubbing for the previous flip-flops... people expect that stuff from serial philanderers who need adoration more than air, but not from guys like Mitt.
He should stay the course and give the electorate a choice between solid and staid versus flighty and flashy. The right response is simple, ignore Newt's grandiose inflammatory rhetoric over the years (the MSM will highlight that) just point to a few bad votes occasionally and make an affirmative case.
Betcha a drink it works.
Re: Long's Second Law of Winning Elections: Fire the Help
I'll take that bet. How can I lose? Either way, I'm drinking.
Apr '11
Re: Long's Second Law of Winning Elections: Fire the Help
Misthiocracy
<devil's advocate mode = on>
Then how the heck did he get elected in Massacheusetts?
<devil's advocate mode = off> · Dec 12 at 1:32pm
More importantly, how is he still the Intrade favorite to win the Republican nomination?
Do you think that Huckabee, Pawlenty, Perry, Bachmann and others who have never been this close are also terrible politicians?