Libya Bounce?
I woke up this morning to the local all-news radio station chattering about Gaddafi's death (we're assuming) and its impact on the election -- another feather in President Obama's foreign policy cap, Republicans can't challenge his warrior credentials, etc.
Before the media go into full hyperventilation . . .
Take a look at Obama's approval rating, as charted here by Gallup Daily.
Specifically, go to May 2011.
On the first day of that month, bin Laden's death was announced. Obama did indeed receive a "bounce". His approval rating ticked up, into into the 50's by month' end.
But then: June, July, August, September, October . . .
The President's inability to work with Congress, market volatility, a stagnant economy, a return to trite class warfare. And Obama's approval rating? It tanks. So much a lasting bin Laden "bounce".
Libya assuredly will be part of a passage about a changed world, people demanding freedom, etc., in next year's big acceptance speech in Charlotte.
Other than that, this President will be doing pretty much what he was up to this week: groveling on the economic front, shifting around from purple state to purple state blaming Republicans for life's injustices real, perceived and fabricated.
That said, if Libya descends into chaos and it's American boots on the ground a year, then Obama does have a foreign policy issue. And it's not a good one.
Agreed?
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Comments:
Dec '10
Re: Libya Bounce?
Obama's new campaign slogan "Freeing the world to hate us more passionately."
I suspect he'll either run out of bad guys to kill or mistime the last kill so badly that foreign policy will remain one of his weakest areas. Even Cain's complete lack of foreign policy experience will shine when compared to Obama's abject failures.
Jan '11
Re: Libya Bounce?
Obama adviser Samantha Powers tried to take credit for Egypt very early on, but Obama hasn't mentioned it much, probably out of caution that the situation might deteriorate. On the other hand, he doesn't have much to tout in the domestic policy arena either. To thread the needle, he might emphasize the killing or toppling of terrorists and despots without referring to the actual results in securing democracy or liberty. Libya is almost certain to fall into sectarian violence - but Obama will have the opportunity to blame the coalition since it wasn't a unilateral action. That's the one benefit of "leading from behind" the UN and EU's skirt.
Re: Libya Bounce?
Comment in response to your post from @Lemoncake28 over on Twitter:
Aug '10
Re: Libya Bounce?
Diane Ellis, Ed.: Comment in response to your post from @Lemoncake28 over on Twitter:
Oct 20 at 11:21am
Now, if we can just get him to turn his attention to South America, there's still time to ice Chavez and Castro before they reach room temp.
Re: Libya Bounce?
Diane, I think we'll have to do an "October Surprise" thread come September of next year.
Feb '11
Re: Libya Bounce?
I'm underwhelmed. I don't even see how this war was in the US national interest. I doubt many people care about it, no matter how much time Obama spends patting himself on the back.
Essentially, Obama launched unprovoked attack on a regime that had learned its lesson and ceased troubling us a long time ago.
This is not good. The lessons for other governments are multiple, but include 1) that there is no point in being agreeable to the United States, because you will be stabbed in the back and 2) get nukes, and keep them.
I also note that regimes actively hostile to the US seem to receive little trouble from Obama. Syria, Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, no problem. Neutral or friendly, look out.
Odd, that is.
Dec '10
Re: Libya Bounce?
Bill, if you have spent any time investing in the stock market, an event that can be dangerous to bulls is a "dead cat bounce". It's a head fake, it looks like the beginning of a new rally after the market has had a sustained period of decline. A dead cat bounce is a bear trap waiting for the bulls to jump back in.
Whatever small rallies Obama gets from taking out bad guys, look exactly like a dead cat bounce.
Jul '10
Re: Libya Bounce?
At this rate 2012 will be the year of grasping at straws.
Jun '11
Re: Libya Bounce?
If the Muslim Brotherhood is in control of Egypt and Libya next summer I don't expect to hear much about the "Arab Spring" at the Charlotte convention. That seems more likely than unlikely as of now.
Jul '10
Re: Libya Bounce?
Bumbling Barry still thinks the Muslim Brotherhood is A-OK in his book. It's just racist bastards that give them a bad name. No bubble there. No siree.
Edited on October 21, 2011 at 4:44am