Liberals and the Cult of Complexity
ReligionDispatches.org has a posting up today following up on the disciples of Harold Camping, the gentleman that convinced thousands last year that Jesus was about to return and bring with Him the end of the world.
The tales of bewilderment and disappointment are obvious and not very illuminating. The fascinating part is author Tom Bartlett's description of meeting some of these folks before the fall.
"It’s been noted by scholars who study apocalyptic groups that believers tend to have analytical mindsets. They’re often good at math. I met several engineers, along with a mathematics major and two financial planners. These are people adept at identifying patterns in sets of data, and the methods they used to identify patterns in the Bible were frequently impressive, even brilliant. Finding unexpected connections between verses, what believers call comparing scripture with scripture, was a way to become known in the group. The essays they wrote explaining these links could be stunningly intricate.
That intricacy was part of the appeal. The arguments were so complex that they were impossible to summarize and therefore very challenging to refute."
This appeal of the complex resonates. Liberals of all stripes feel that the best descriptions of conservatives include the variations on the word "simple." They dismissed Ronald Reagan as the "Simpleton-in-Chief."
They do not understand how a nation can be governed with a constitution that barely covers 14 typed pages when the EU Constitution runs over 450 pages. They believe, as Phillip Ortiz, a SUNY professor and contributor to the Huffington Post, does, that "Complex problems have complex solutions... It'd be nice if the toughest question we ever needed to answer was 'decaf' or 'regular,' but that's just not true. The world is a complex place, facing complex problems that have complex solutions, and we need to make complex decisions everyday."
It is why liberals can not comprehend the hidden hand of the market, although it could be argued that the market's speed and efficiency is far more complex than any of their rationalizations. But the idea of the market is just too simple for them to wrap their complex minds around. To them it is impossible that the market can achieve a simple answer to what they know is such a complex problem. Surely, all problems need a 2,000 page act of Congress and 10,000 bureaucrats to solve!
Liberals are caught in their own cult of complexity. Common sense is dismissed as the high priests and priestesses rewrite dogma on a daily basis. The words "And the Lord saith" are replaced with "The most recent studies show...".
Reagan reminded us often that "...there are simple answers to many of our problems--
simple but hard. It's the complicated answer that's easy because it avoids facing the hard moral issues."
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Apr '12
Re: Liberals and the Cult of Complexity
For a deep treatment of this issue I recommend Richard Epstein's "Simple Rules for a Complex World." Not an easy read, but very rewarding.
Dec '10
Re: Liberals and the Cult of Complexity
The impetus behind the liberal complexity theory is we need liberals to provide the solutions.
Dec '10
Re: Liberals and the Cult of Complexity
Underlying the problem is the ego of the left. "Sure, the problems and solutions are complex, but we've got a handle on it." What they fail to realize, because their egos won't allow it, is that the problem is too complex. The market is the only system with the distributed computing power to solve the problems. They think a lot of themselves, but the reality is they are still ants comtemplating an elephant.
Jul '11
Re: Liberals and the Cult of Complexity
What you're saying is so deep and my brain is so shallow. Can't I just listen to Keynes and everything will be just fine.
May '10
Re: Liberals and the Cult of Complexity
Me, deep? I am a trained journalist and broadcast professional. I have a college degree in shallowness!
Jul '11
Re: Liberals and the Cult of Complexity
So deep down inside you're shallow. Way to pull it off buddy. As to your article's point, it is astounding that liberals can build a Rube Goldberg mechanism to swat a fly but yet they do. Not only do they eschew the fly swatter but expect me to pay for the elaborate swat-o-matic, its union operators and their pensions, as well as the regulatory dept of swat-o-matics and their minions.
Jan '11
Re: Liberals and the Cult of Complexity
Stupidity takes simple things and makes them seem complicated.
Wisdom takes complicated things and makes them seem simple.
Mar '12
Re: Liberals and the Cult of Complexity
I think part of the problem is that many "intellectuals" have more of a pseudo-scientific training or pseudo-analytical training. I see this all the time RE your comment about "studies say..." One study is not as good as the other. People often write up a pile of commentary or interviews with one side of a story and package it into what they call a "study," or cherry-pick the best evidence for their side and release it with the talking point they want in the media out as their headline.
A real study has some well-respected and long-held controls and limits that most people, even supposedly well-educated ones, know nothing about.
--Joy
Edited on May 29, 2012 at 8:07pmApr '11
Re: Liberals and the Cult of Complexity
What catches us so often is the paradox of complex structures with simple building blocks. For example, essentially our DNA consists of four chemicals, yet they bind together in such incredible fashion as to create a complex systems as we see in life around us. Even knowing that, we find that even slight variations in the simple parts of the chain can create big differences in the complex system. The simplicity of the foundation defies the complexity of the structure.
A simple transaction between a buyer and a seller is essentially the chemical bonds of the DNA of the free market. Because it looks so simple, many great minds assume they can affect the complexity of the overall market without comprehending that variations within this simple structure can create big differences in the complex system.
It is a glorious paradox.
Jun '10
Re: Liberals and the Cult of Complexity
There's a simpler way:
No complex calculations required.
Dec '11
Re: Liberals and the Cult of Complexity
Thomas Sowell describes this in A Conflict of Visions. Today's liberal - whose vision of man is that he is 'unconstrained' - easily accepts that experts can develop and manage complex systems.
May '10
Re: Liberals and the Cult of Complexity
EJHill
They believe, as Phillip Ortiz, a SUNY professor and contributor to the Huffington Post, does, that "Complex problems have complex solutions... It'd be nice if the toughest question we ever needed to answer was 'decaf' or 'regular,' but that's just not true. The world is a complex place, facing complex problems that have complex solutions, and we need to make complex decisions everyday."
Well, it's complicated.
The most elegant and highly favored solutions to problems are simple. The greatest thing that could happen to physics would be to find a single Theory of Everything to unify the apparently conflicting theories of relativity and quantum mechanics. Yet from such a simple theory we would still observe all the highly complex emergent behavior of the universe.
What if it turned out that most of the highly complex human economic behavior could be explained by a few simple rules? (supply & demand, risk & return, profit & loss, etc.). And that by tipping the scales in these equations using "complex" laws and regulations, you remove healthy incentives, distort natural behaviors and wreak havoc on an system that is otherwise largely self-stabilized?
Apr '11
Re: Liberals and the Cult of Complexity
The rules of the system may be simple, but one must not forget that the system has many simple rules. The reason life is so complex is because there are many simple rules all interacting. It is the interactions that are complex not the rules guiding them.
What makes biology complex is not that the chemical reactions that sustain it are themselves complicated. It is that all of these things are happening at once.
Of course one must be wary of simplicity as much as of complexity. As every good scientist knows for every phenomenon there is a simple and elegant explanation that is wrong.
Mar '11
Re: Liberals and the Cult of Complexity
EJHill
That theory breaks down with the apocalyptic cult of global warning, where Mr Gore's mathematical skills are somewhat limited, at best. It's the deniers, er, skeptics who are good at mathematics.
I'd imagine Mr Romney is a lot better at mathematics than is Mr Obama - the former knows the difference between positive and negative numbers.
Mar '11
Re: Liberals and the Cult of Complexity
Great post. I agree with The King Prawn. Only the combined wisdom of millions of decision makers can direct capital where it is needed most and redirect it quickly when needed. The "complex" solutions of the left interfere with this. They are far too simplistic. Simple can be good, simplistic is not. They say everyone deserves to own a home so we get a housing bubble. Everyone should go to collegs so we get an education bubble. Sometimes it's not such a direct line. The easy money of the early 90's funneled money into the tech industry, creating a bubble. It goes on and on.
Jul '11
Re: Liberals and the Cult of Complexity
@kgrant67 #15: Well the creation of bubbles may be intentional. A lot of people make a lot of money from both creating bubbles and when they pop. The problem being that the masters of the universe think they have control over the uncontrollable and understand the understandable. One day they will go too far and the whole house of cards will come tumbling down. Only then will understand how little they know and how little control they have.
Re: Liberals and the Cult of Complexity
KC Mulville: Stupidity takes simple things and makes them seem complicated.
Wisdom takes complicated things and makes them seem simple. · 2 hours ago
KC, may I just say that you have a capacity to pack tons wisdom in such tight and powerful sentences, and I just revel in it. I know it's off topic, but I just wanted to say that. I always look forward to reading your thoughts.
Jan '11
Re: Liberals and the Cult of Complexity
Dave Carter
KC Mulville: Stupidity takes simple things and makes them seem complicated.
Wisdom takes complicated things and makes them seem simple. · 2 hours ago
KC, may I just say that you have a capacity to pack tons wisdom in such tight and powerful sentences, and I just revel in it. I know it's off topic, but I just wanted to say that. I always look forward to reading your thoughts. · 0 minutes ago
How can I possibly seem humble after that?
Oh yeah ... the hat ...
Thanks, Dave!
May '10
Re: Liberals and the Cult of Complexity
Contemporary higher education is based on the idea of taking a complicated problem and coming up with a solution—in a paper, model, case study, what have you. People mistake these academic exercises with interaction with the real world, and then, when all you have is a hammer, everything starts to look like a nail. You think, “Hey, I’m smart—I’ve been solving hard problems! I can solve this one!” So you go in biased in favor of the idea that it’s a solvable problem, rather than, say, an aspect of a incalculable, vast system from which it can neither be detached from it nor derived.
Whereas if you have a degree of modesty, you think, “Hmm…nobody can understand how all this works. But we can direct it with some simple rules, and it will organize itself, though with a certain degree of unavoidable mess. We can strive for simplicity, clarity, predictability, and fair enforcement of rules, but beyond that, we’re just going to cause new problems for every one we ‘solve.’”
I think the Constitution (andFederalist) is an attempt to inculcate such modesty in the ruling class. Right now, it’s not working.
Oct '10
Re: Liberals and the Cult of Complexity
It seems to me that people who support distributed, bottom-up, and market-based solutions are those who truly embrace complexity, and those who advocate mathematical models which discard the vast amount of information at the transaction level by aggregating it into numbers presented to a central planner are those who fail to appreciate the complexity of the system they're trying to control.
Hayek called it the “knowledge problem”: there is vastly more information in the minds of the participants in the market than any aggregate measure can encode, and the central planner's actions will always, in any case, be based on out-of-date information and have effects which will take place only with delays.
Engineers (unlike theorists in many fields) know that only a tiny subset of problems have closed-form solutions you can write down in an equation. Most problems can, at best, be simulated, and often only by a simulation whose complexity approaches that of the physical system. Throw in conscious agents who adapt their behaviour and the problem is intractable.
Engineering is an art we learn from failure. Central planning is an arrogance born of denying its failures.