Let's Discuss the Obama October Strategy
Whatever might be said about how the presidential campaign was going heading into October, the dynamic has certainly changed. And where I used to struggle with what the Romney campaign was doing, now I do not understand the Obama campaign strategy. From my perch, it seems focused on appealing to voters whose support is not in question.
The ads that run on my Northern Virginia airwaves, which have included brazen lies about Romney's abortion position that I wish were even half-true, are obsessed with the killing of unborn children and keeping women's uteruses empty at all costs.
And while I get that this message appeals to hard-core feminists, the vast majority of the country is much more moderate on abortion than Obama is. Some of us are outright pro-lifers. Others simply wish there was some protection for the unborn.
And then there's the "binders of women" meme that the left and their friends in the media have focused on. Mitt Romney said that he went out of his way to find qualified women for his cabinet in Massachusetts -- that their resumes were provided to him in some kind of organizing device, if you can imagine -- and the left thinks this is the "gotcha" that will bring him down. He hired women! Qualified women! After reviewing their resumes to determine their qualifications! The monster!
Now, a liberal friend showed me this New Yorker piece which explains how some view the binder comment negatively. It can be summed up as, "Sure, Romney hired women and paid them fairly, but he doesn't emote properly. Our guy has been accused by former female staffers of running a 'boy's club' and a 'hostile' workplace for women and he pays female staffers less than the men, but he says the right things."
Let's leave that all aside for a moment. What I wonder is what the campaign strategy regarding binders is. I mean, first you have to provide some type of context for the listener to even know what the heck you're talking about. Then you have to explain that Romney's hiring of all these women was somehow nefarious. It's just not an image that translates. Heck, the whole reason we're talking about it is that it was awkward phrasing.
Is the idea that by talking about how Romney put women's resumes in binders, women will be aghast? Is it merely that by painting him as a kind of robotic dude, we'll vote for Obama in droves? Memo to the Obama campaign: Not only is everyone aware of Romney's mannerisms, the way that you demonized him so thoroughly has made our interaction with the "real" Romney go even better than it would have had you not done so. You set the bar at "Romney is an insane and evil robot." It wasn't hard for him to exceed our expectations after that.
And all this is happening post-Big Bird. That was the campaign's big "gotcha" for the week following the first debate.
So we have a discussion on whether to subsidize the world's wealthiest puppet, binders full of women's resumes, and advocating for an extreme abortion position.
We can make fun of it, but what am I missing? Why is this their strategy? Which voting group are they targeting and why? And how does this help them win in November?
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May '10
Re: Let's Discuss the Obama October Strategy
I'm leaning toward the simplest explanation - they're thrashing around in ever-deepening water, desperate to find something ... anything ... to keep this campaign afloat.
Expect Mediscare, Ryan pushing Grandma's wheelchair off the cliff, and maybe even a mushroom cloud obliterating Daisy ...
Mar '12
Re: Let's Discuss the Obama October Strategy
My guess is that they see the women vote, especially young women, as key to victory in the swing states. They have given up on the male vote. The gender issue is also a distraction from the economic issues, because they know that BO's economic record is indefensible.
Their strategy is to win back the female vote and work on turning out their base.
Oct '12
Re: Let's Discuss the Obama October Strategy
i dont think the abortion issue will hurt romney among women. doesnt he have a reputation as being "moderate mitt"?
I hear romney's tax records will be leaked out during the last days of october by hackers... true?
Mar '11
Re: Let's Discuss the Obama October Strategy
I think that they think they can play rope-a-dope and win with their get out the vote ground game. As long as they can deflect the really damaging stuff, they're going to be content to let Romney swing away. The real opening Romney still has is to hang the Libya coverup and Fast and Furious on Monday around Obama's neck:
Edited on October 19, 2012 at 4:42pmMay '10
Re: Let's Discuss the Obama October Strategy
They have nothing else...pure and simple. This is the sign of an imploding campaign. This isn't even going to be close.
Sep '10
Re: Let's Discuss the Obama October Strategy
A fired up base is required for their GOTV. What you describe is evidence of their fear.
May '11
Re: Let's Discuss the Obama October Strategy
Well, as I posted yesterday, I've talked to friends who are not anti-Obama by any stretch of the imagination. What one told me (regarding the 2nd debate) was "Obama didn't do poorly - but he really doesn't have anything to talk about. He keeps trying to draw attention away from the fact that after 4 years, nothing is improved."
I attribute a lot of weight to that because it's coming from someone who could never join Ricochet because of how conservative we all are.
I honestly think Obama is talking about whatever he can think to talk about. It isn't the things that are important, because he simply cannot win on those issues.
Aug '10
Re: Let's Discuss the Obama October Strategy
I've said it before, and I'll say it again: A couple of nights ago, NBC Nightly News led off the broadcast with the "binders of women" "issue". They gave absolutely no indication of why this was controversial. Last night, Andrea Mitchell mentioned it again, calling it a "stumble". For the life of me, I can't fathom why it would be. The only thing I can think of is that Romney may have annoyed those on the right who strongly oppose gender-based "affirmative action" or political correctness.
Jul '10
Re: Let's Discuss the Obama October Strategy
They are trying to make up an enthusiasm gap. It's all base, all day, which (just barely) worked for Rove in 2004. The awkwardness of explaining the binders is a feature, not a bug. If you "get it" you're on the inside.
That's the best I can come up with, but really I'm starting to wonder if they are morons.
Mar '11
Re: Let's Discuss the Obama October Strategy
Hey, voter fraud and intimidation are risky; there is the potential, at least, of getting caught and prosecuted. The Obama campaign needs to fire up their base to go out and take those risks.
Edited on October 19, 2012 at 7:17pmMay '12
Re: Let's Discuss the Obama October Strategy
very nice!
Illiniguy: I think that they think they can play rope-a-dope and win with their get out the vote ground game. As long as they can deflect the really damaging stuff, they're going to be content to let Romney swing away. The real opening Romney still has is to hang the Libya coverup and Fast and Furious on Monday around Obama's neck:
Edited 25 minutes ago
28 minutes ago
Sep '12
Re: Let's Discuss the Obama October Strategy
It seems they're thrashing around for the "gotcha", akin to the release of Bush's DUI records in the last days of the campaign in 2000. Campaign lore has it that blunted Bush's lead and led to Gore's popular vote victory. But this year is different. Obama is the incumbent and late-deciders rarely break for the incumbent, plus the Bush DUI revelation blunted enthusiasm among *conservatives* for George W. Bush. Does anyone think an "October Surprise" is going to seriously damage support for Romney on the right side of the spectrum? Like the whole "War on Women" meme, all the Obama surrogates seems to be doing is showing Romney to be a moderate on many issues, including on abortion. Hardly a game-changer and fits perfectly into Romney's theory of the campaign: be a safe, moderate, qualified and competent alternative. In short, don't frighten the horses and all will be well. To date, the Axelrodian gotchas have been sophomoric: binders, selective 47% quotes, crated dogs and other trivial pursuits.
Edited on October 19, 2012 at 5:20pmMay '12
Re: Let's Discuss the Obama October Strategy
The only people who will be upset by these strategies were already going to vote for obama. To even understand the references you would have to be a tuned in voter, which presumably the "un-decided" or "independent" voters are not typically. By tuned in, I mean more than just watching the debate. Especially the whole binders kerfuffle, is a very esoteric argument.
George Rapp: I'm leaning toward the simplest explanation - they're thrashing around in ever-deepening water, desperate to find something ...anything ... to keep this campaign afloat.
Expect Mediscare, Ryan pushing Grandma's wheelchair off the cliff, and maybe even a mushroom cloud obliterating Daisy ... · 51 minutes ago
Jun '10
Re: Let's Discuss the Obama October Strategy
Having condemned it to almost being a "meme," I think the strategy is to get out the base vote of people who had already consciously decided to sit this one out. I thought this was also true for Republicans when Romney was seen as just "the new McCain," the inevitable Next Guy.
Ryan's pick added an enthusiasm which has partially kicked the (R)'s out of that simple, desperate "arouse the committed butt-sitters" mode. And Mitt has exceeded the somnolence expectations.
I think the Dems are still there.
Re: Let's Discuss the Obama October Strategy
There is no strategy. They are desperate. Romney has run a brilliant campaign. He sat back and let them spend their money demonizing him. Then, when he got the chance to spend time with 67 million television viewers and who knows how many internet viewers, he made it manifest that he is a human being -- steady, thoughtful, decent, and willing to present himself as an alternative to a failed President. So now they are back to trying to demonize him, which will not work. Everything that they throw at him helps him.
Nov '11
Re: Let's Discuss the Obama October Strategy
I suspect they're just trying to change the subject. A War On Binders Full of Women™ may be silly, and may not "work" on anyone that's not already an Obama fan, but it fills time and media space that might otherwise contain information that actively harms Obama.
I suppose we shouldn't discount the possibility that some or all of this is battlespace preparation for a planned October Surprise. I can't imagine what sort of "surprise" they might have in store that would build on a War On Binders Full of Women™, though.
Mar '11
Re: Let's Discuss the Obama October Strategy
This is the well-known "throw everything at the wall and pray something sticks" strategy. It only works when the opposition is detached and confused, not determined and focused.
It's not working and it's not going to work.
Binders? Feh.
Nov '11
Re: Let's Discuss the Obama October Strategy
Mollie Hemingway, Ed.: Whatever might be said about how the presidential campaign was going heading into October, the dynamic has certainly changed. And where I used to struggle with what the Romney campaign was doing, now I do not understand the Obama campaign strategy. ...
We can make fun of it, but what am I missing? Why is this their strategy? Which voting group are they targeting and why? And how does this help them win in November? · · 1 hour ago
Perhaps we're giving them too much credit. Maybe there is no strategy. This might just be the irrational, emotional wailing that it appears to be, and nothing more.
Re: Let's Discuss the Obama October Strategy
Terry Mott
Perhaps we're giving them too much credit. Maybe there isno strategy. This might just be the irrational, emotional wailing that it appears to be, and nothing more. · in 0 minutes
No, I like your first answer. It may be an unwise strategy but I like to at least assume rationality on their part.
I think you nailed it with the idea that they're just trying to fill time so that people don't talk about, you know, Benghazi and Fast & Furious and the record over the last four years.
Nov '10
Re: Let's Discuss the Obama October Strategy
They have to get their base so excited (or scared) that they make up the enthusiasm gap and disadvantage in likely voters. They are also assuming that their message appeals to liberal leaning independents.
But really, if you do have a record but it's not good, what else can you do but what they are doing?