Lessons from NY-26
The consultant community will say that NY-26 was all about Medicare, and by the way they told us so. Indeed, Medicare being mis-messaged effectively was part of the story.
But there are other lessons that probably won't be learned by an NRCC that poopooed those who thought this election might not be a cakewalk, and that seems to think it "won" in 2010. Actually, in 2010 Democrats lost, and Republicans were the happy conditional beneficiaries.
But that's not the zeitgeist now, and as NY-26 shows, a Republican party that doesn't recognize and plan to push back hard on Mediscare tactics, and that concurrently has effectively gone dark on talking about ObamaCare - never mind trying to do anything about it, doesn't really know how to win, and frankly got what it had coming.
One friend who lives upstate NY and had seen the messaging for both sides said "actually, the Democrats just outmessaged the Republicans". Given the messaging for our side that we've all seen time and again, the sort that works for donors but fails with all but the already-converted, we would be surprised why?
It was also interesting to note that the Tea Party brand is strong enough that it pulled in about 8% of the vote at last check, despite a faux tea party candidate who was massively advertised against.
But expect Republican messaging to stay the same (because the groups and consultants and donors will stay the same) while a backpedalling from Medicare reform will follow. And yet another perceived Republican retreat from serious spending cuts and entitlement reform should further strengthen the Tea Party movement.
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Mar '11
Re: Lessons from NY-26
With 91 percent of precincts reporting, Democrat Kathy Hochul had 48 percent of the vote, Republican Jane Corwin had 42 percent, and the ersatz Tea Party independent candidate Jack Davis, who ran for office three times before as a Democrat, snagged 9 percent. It seems reasonable to assume that the candidate in Tea Party clothing siphoned more votes from Corwin than from Hochul. Without the spoiler or if Corwin defended her support of the Ryan plan aggressively, this election could well have gone a different way. Don’t read too much into this.
Dec '10
Re: Lessons from NY-26
Two things: One, this was a local race and there really wasn't a national Medicare discussion, so fear ads are easier to believe. Frankly, we have to get on that bandwagon: The Democrats want to fund PBS on the backs of Medicare. The Democrats want to give money away to artists to sacrifice Medicare, etc.
It'll be much tougher to do that in 2012.
Two, here again we see the Republican suffering from the third-party curse. As in the 1992 presidential election or in the 2010 Alaska Senate election, it became two-against-one, so everybody disgruntled with "one" had a place to go, no matter what their beef was.
If we win by kicking this can down the road, we haven't won at all.
May '10
Re: Lessons from NY-26
Am I right that the Tea Party movement hasn't had a strong presence in the news lately? Should we expect a resurgence as the Presidential election draws closer?
Dec '10
Re: Lessons from NY-26
Our real problem is that there are no honest Democrats. Think about it, nobody -- absolutely nobody -- on the left is acknowledging the problems with the budget in general and Medicare in particular.
People only believe what they're told. They won't read policy papers on Medicare, they won't know anything and if the left says, "nothing to see here" they'll be all too willing to believe it.
Apr '11
Re: Lessons from NY-26
The real problem is that Paul Ryan is a more honest Republican and no one wants what he is selling. Now let's expand Medicare to everyone any may be our health care results can be as good as those in Great Britain.
Jul '10
Re: Lessons from NY-26
The first thing Republicans need to learn is that they were not sent to Washington to Be something, they were sent ther to Do something.
However, they have decided that a Token bone to the Tea Party will suffice and they can go back to Being who they are and Do nothing to upset the apple cart.
That's why the Presidential Field is viewed as so weak. They aren't really presenting themselves as wanting to Do president as much as they want to Be president.
Well, we already have someone who wants to Be president with out Doing president. Why exchange one Left Leaning north end of a southbound mule for another?
Oct '10
Re: Lessons from NY-26
the problem here is that most republican candidates and tea party grassroots don't know how to explain the Ryan Plan. Defending the Ryan Plan can be done, but you'll have to be as good as Paul Ryan in explaining and parrying dems attacks.
It could take Paul Ryan the entire year to explain his plan on behalf of republicans and tea partiers and undo the mediscare tactics of dems. so the GOP should hope that there won't be any more special elections for vacated seats until next year, after ryan has done a lot of touring the country and town halls.
this is another reason why ryan should NOT run for president. he needs to just focus on selling his budget reform plan, and not be distrated by question about libya or pakistan.
and since he's not running anymore, i'd like to see gov daniels, in his free time, help ryan in explaining why entitlement reforms are needed.
Edited on May 25, 2011 at 3:50amMay '10
Re: Lessons from NY-26
Did I count four uses of the word "messaging" just there? Oy! Change yer buzzwords, sister. It's all about "optics" now.
As Ben Smith over at Politico said, we've seen this story before. A weird 3-way NY race that gave the Dems something to crow about and Republicans something to panic over. That didn't prove indicative.
I don't think we can draw any conclusions from this specific race. Were it a horse race, you'd scratch it out on the past performances as something screwy beyond the horse's control. It may be true that entitlement reform as envisioned is a loser, but this race doesn't show that. Or anything else.
If such proves to be the case, no amount of messaging will change that. We can balance the budget short-term without reforming entitlements. If electorally necessary, that's the way we'll have to go. But let's wait for something a little more reliable than this result ere panic sets in.
Jan '11
Re: Lessons from NY-26
By now everyone has seen the ad put out by the "Agenda Project," a Democrat front group, which had "Paul Ryan" tossing grandma off a cliff.
The ad was described by conservatives as "sadly effective." What should that teach Republicans and conservatives?
The coming election will be decided in a fight over the votes of the least informed, most-easily influenced among us. Sad, but true.
Democrats will appeal to their fears. Sad, but true.
The GOP will either be on defense, or they will mount a counter-appeal to those same fears. Sad, but true.
It is time to take advantage of the fear and loathing that the majority of Americans feel toward Washington DC, and toward those protected classes who have been shielded from the economic turbulence and uncertainty of the last 2 1/2 years. It is time to shine a light on them.
It is time that public employee union members and the government-succored residents of the Beltway were portrayed as the new version of Reagan's "welfare queen."
Here is your slogan.
"The recession will end in America the day it begins in the Beltway."
Sad, but true.
And effective.
Oct '10
Re: Lessons from NY-26
how much of a factor in NY 26 was gingrich's statement describing ryan's plan as "right wing social engineering?"
Jan '11
Re: Lessons from NY-26
Who cares? The Democrats don't need Newt Gingrich or Scott Brown or the ladies from Maine to know how to skewer "root-canal Republicans," John.
They are perfectly capable of doing it all by themselves, as the "Grandma off the Cliff" ad ably demonstrates. They have a lot of practice at cheap demagoguery and no scruple whatsoever about employing it. In fact, Democrats think it's smart politics. Watch MSNBC.
But Heather and Paul Ryan and the other posters should go ahead and double-down. Make the compelling, rational arguments. Marshal the evidence. Show how conservatives sincerely and intelligently want to maintain and sustain Democrat social programs...with just a little tweaking and some minor sacrifices.
Just don't complain to me when the candidates that do that are clubbed like baby harp seals and go down to defeat because the least-informed didn't comprehend the subtleties and nuances of their arguments.
And don't look for excuses. The facts are right in front of your nose.
Edited on May 25, 2011 at 7:29amSep '10
Re: Lessons from NY-26
Although this district is right next to mine, by the time of the election I didn't care who won. It was pure negative campaigining from beginning to end. I never saw Corwin attempt to defend the Ryan Plan. I only saw her stressing that she would never cut anything ever to anyone. The only difference that I saw between Hochul and Corwin was that Hochul seemed to smile more. Corwin always appeared stiff to me.
I agree with those above who say there is very little to read into this contest. In a somewhat Republican district (that just saw the Republican incumbent resign in disgrace), the more personally-appealing Dem won enough votes against a stiff Rep candidate with the help of a 3rd party candidate that totally pulled support from the Rep.
We weren't going to get a Ryan defender either way. Now I have the benefit of not getting my expectations up. Plus, I don't have to see any more of the commercials.
Edited on May 25, 2011 at 9:25am