Lepanto, 439 years on.
So today was the 439th anniversary of the Battle of Lepanto, which is often credited as “saving Christendom” or “turning the tide” against the Ottomans. In fact, the main significance of Lepanto was the fact that the Holy League's victory was just that, a victory, which hadn't been scored against the Ottomans at sea since the 15th century. The Ottomans, for their part, largely shrugged it off, and the Holy League was incapable of overcoming its fractiousness to press the victory.
Which is to say it was primarily a psychological victory which accumulated greater significance in retrospect. Why bring this up? Well, the question is open which side in the “War on Terror” has the confidence and psychological edge.
I'd give the “civilizational confidence” edge to the bad guys, not so much because they're riding high, but because the West is so sunk in self-doubt.
But on the actual operational level, I'd have to imagine that al-Qā'ida and crew have to be more than a little discouraged, given the brutal defeats they've suffered (and continue to suffer at the hands of drones). Moreover, demoralizing them is a key vector of the war because much of their aggression is predicated on the idea that their ultimate victory is divinely pre-ordained.
Since we have no way of knowing what the bad guys are thinking—although I hope some of our intelligence agencies do—I'll ask Ricochetistan (Claire Khan, Supreme Emire) the following question: where do you think the West is? Great shape? Pretty good? So-So? Shaky? Or doomed?
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Jun '10
Re: Lepanto, 439 years on.
We're all dooooooooomed.. DOOOOOOOOMED!!!
Seriously, though. We've lost the ethic of self-sacrifice here in the West. Life has been too easy for too long for too many of us, and most of the Western countries now have a permanent class of apologists in government and education. And these Statists are like the freaking Borg, man! Yep. Definitely doomed. If we can get a lot more veterans in Congress we might make some headway, but there's a lot of reasons why I don't think that's going to happen.
Those Appleseed folks give me some hope, though. And Hillsdale.
Re: Lepanto, 439 years on.
Bill, the West has two things going for it. First, it's the only civilization that's ever fully mastered wealth-creation. Only the West has ever properly understood that free market capitalism--married to institutions such as rule of law, free exchange of ideas, rigorous protection of property rights, etc--is a wealth-creation machine. However compromised this system has been of late, we still grasp these concepts better than anyone else. Our enemies don't grasp them at all, which means they'll never have the wealth really to take on the West economically. If ever they do, it will be because they've mastered this system--and then by definition, they'll no longer be our enemies. Second, our enemies may well make huge mistakes. Iran, for example, may push China and Russia past their patience. We don't necessarily have to play smart to win, so long as they play stupider.
Those are the only good arguments I can come up with against the thesis that we're utterly doomed, and I don't want to dwell on the counter-arguments.
Edited on Oct 8, 2010 at 1:27amJul '10
Re: Lepanto, 439 years on.
I thought you were bringing this up because of the upcoming elections, with the GOP as the Holy League.
Aug '10
Re: Lepanto, 439 years on.
Casey Taylor:
.... We've lost the ethic of self-sacrifice here in the West. Life has been too easy for too long for too many of us, and most of the Western countries now have a permanent class of apologists in government and education. And these Statists are like the freaking Borg, man! Yep. Definitely doomed. If we can get a lot more veterans in Congress we might make some headway, but there's a lot of reasons why I don't think that's going to happen.
Claire: "Bill, the West has two things going for it. First, it's the only civilization that's ever fully mastered wealth-creation. Only the West has ever properly understood that free market capitalism--married to institutions such as rule of law, free exchange of ideas, rigorous protection of property rights, etc--is a wealth-creation machine....."
****
Well said, Casey, and Claire. Still, we hold our future in our hands - and the outcome for each individual isn't foreordained. As Lincoln said, "....We will live through all time or die by suicide...."
Edited on Oct 8, 2010 at 4:38amSep '10
Re: Lepanto, 439 years on.
I think how the West is doing can best be gauged in primarily two ways. The acceptance of the premise that the free market system is a better system, ie: more efficient and more moral, than any other and the premise that we are engaged in a struggle with an international enemy and not in a police action against international criminals. Unfortunately, I see the acceptance of both premises as waning, so put me down as somewhere between so-so and shaky.
Sep '10
Re: Lepanto, 439 years on.
Those who contemplate our decadence need to read Matt Ridley's _Rational Optimist_ and watch the TV series "Mad Men" not because we aren't decadent but our material prosperity is so incremental we forget that the biggest technological improvement in the last 45 years might not be computers it might be air conditioning. It will be interesting to see what changes befall the emerging market's governments as more of their voters enter the middle class.
Jun '10
Re: Lepanto, 439 years on.
Seems to me that the Achilles heel of the Islamic world is reliance on a single commodity for export income (oil, obviously). The wealthier states of the Persian Gulf are importing the fruits of modernity with gusto, yet they have utterly failed to adopt the ideas that make modernity possible. These nations have put themselves in the same position as 17th century Spain; the fall will be precipitous and unpleasant when it comes.
The West has become decadent, but the US is uniquely endowed with factors, both materially and philosophically, to mount a comeback. We have natural resources in abundance including agriculture, a modern infrastructure, an educated populace, and a national ideology based on personal liberty and free market capitalism (the present situation not withstanding). Taken together it's a potent combination.
In contrast, our terrorist foes are a bunch of primitives with a totalitarian philosophy still mired in the middle ages. Their goal is based on a utopian fantasy. Should they ever come close to their stated objective, the disruption would see the Arabian peninsula depopulated by 90%.
Don't count America out yet, not by a long shot.
Jul '10
Re: Lepanto, 439 years on.
Leftist analysis credits a/c for the political and economic dynamism of the south. That's why you are beginning to hear murmurings on the left that it is bad for Gaia and must be curtailed.
Jun '10
Re: Lepanto, 439 years on.
I will gladly forgo air conditioning if it keeps Congress out of Washington D.C. for most of the year.