Latest Election Polls
Mollie Hemingway, Ed. ·
October 5, 2012 at 7:16pm
Your daily round-up of the latest polls:
Gallup Tracking Obama 50, Romney 45 Obama +5
Rasmussen Tracking Obama 49, Romney 47 Obama +2
Florida: WeAskAmerica Obama 46, Romney 49 Romney +3
Virginia: Rasmussen Reports Obama 48, Romney 49 Romney +1
Virginia: WeAskAmerica Obama 45, Romney 48 Romney +3
Ohio: Rasmussen Reports Obama 50, Romney 49 Obama +1
Ohio: WeAskAmerica Obama 46, Romney 47 Romney +1
Nevada: Gravis Marketing Obama 49, Romney 48 Obama +1
Virginia Senate: Rasmussen Reports Kaine 52, Allen 45 Kaine +7
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Comments:
Re: Latest Election Polls
In which cases was the sampling done after the debates?
Apr '11
Re: Latest Election Polls
For the national polls, Rasmussen and Gallup each had one night after the debate. Romney gained no ground in Ras and lost a point in Gallup.
Ras's state polls have better news, though.
Jun '12
Re: Latest Election Polls
What's the margin of error in each poll? If either holds a lead smaller than the margin, it should be referenced as a straight up tie, or tie leaning for one or the other..
Jun '10
Re: Latest Election Polls
wmartin: For the national polls, Rasmussen and Gallup each had one night after the debate. Romney gained no ground in Ras and lost a point in Gallup.
Ras's state polls have better news, though. · 1 minute ago
Rasmussen's national poll is conducted on a three day rolling average. Full results won't be available until Sunday morning.
Re: Latest Election Polls
Numbers Muncher on Twitter says:
Sep '12
Re: Latest Election Polls
In other words, we still have a very winnable fight on our hands, one that's nowhere close to finished. Keep calm and carry on.
Apr '11
Re: Latest Election Polls
Michael Barone said on the Podcast this week that we would not really begin seeing any bounce in the polls until at least tomorrow since most of the major polling is on a 3 day or 5 day cycle.
Apr '11
Re: Latest Election Polls
In Ohio at least there are signs that Obama may not be doing as well as polls show. I talk about it in a post I had last night.
Early voting which was much to Obama favor last time is down this time and the gap in participants is much closer. Also party affiliation gaps in many Ohio counties is favoring Republicans. I think a lot of this is flying under the radar of poles...but this is stuff that actually makes elections.
Jun '12
Re: Latest Election Polls
I ask again, how many of these polls oversampled Democrats?
Oct '10
Re: Latest Election Polls
If the polls more than 3 weeks out from the election prove to have been worthless, useless, and meaningless, shall we ask President Romney to pursue a Con Amendment banning them? I am so sick and tired of seeing polls. It's not "news."
If the election were held today...but it ISN'T. If it were, then both campaigns would've scheduled their stuff to hit BEFORE today. Their strategic and tactical timetable is November 6th, not yesterday, not today, not tomorrow. Election Day!!! (which is why I think early voting ought to be outlawed as well)
Anyway, this concludes my rant.
[edited for Code of Conduct]
Edited on October 5, 2012 at 8:20pmSep '12
Re: Latest Election Polls
~Paules
wmartin: For the national polls, Rasmussen and Gallup each had one night after the debate. Romney gained no ground in Ras and lost a point in Gallup.
Ras's state polls have better news, though. · 1 minute ago
Rasmussen's national poll is conducted on a three day rolling average. Full results won't be available until Sunday morning. · 27 minutes ago
Is Gallup's also a three-day rolling average? Anyone know?
Apr '11
Re: Latest Election Polls
~Paules
wmartin: For the national polls, Rasmussen and Gallup each had one night after the debate. Romney gained no ground in Ras and lost a point in Gallup.
Ras's state polls have better news, though. · 1 minute ago
Rasmussen's national poll is conducted on a three day rolling average. Full results won't be available until Sunday morning. · 54 minutes ago
Yes, that's why I said both Gallup and Rasmussen "each had one night" post-debate.
Apr '11
Re: Latest Election Polls
quodlibet
~Paules
wmartin: For the national polls, Rasmussen and Gallup each had one night after the debate. Romney gained no ground in Ras and lost a point in Gallup.
Ras's state polls have better news, though. · 1 minute ago
Rasmussen's national poll is conducted on a three day rolling average. Full results won't be available until Sunday morning. · 27 minutes ago
Is Gallup's also a three-day rolling average? Anyone know? · 26 minutes ago
Gallup is a 7 day track (which is a ludicrous way of doing a poll this late). Obama gained a point today, so there weren't any dramatic pro-Romney swings.
Jul '12
Re: Latest Election Polls
Frank Luntz said on the Dennis Prager show yesterday that Romney's performance in the last debate pulls him even with President Obama.
According to Luntz, Romney needs another win like that to decisively pull ahead.
He also said it's not a good sign when people are arguing with polls.
(Not completely unexpected that a pollster would have such an opinion. Doesn't mean it's inaccurate though.)
RealClearPolitics average is currently at Obama +3.2
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html
Edited on October 5, 2012 at 8:29pmNov '10
Re: Latest Election Polls
wmartin
quodlibet
~Paules
wmartin: For the national polls, Rasmussen and Gallup each had one night after the debate. Romney gained no ground in Ras and lost a point in Gallup.
Ras's state polls have better news, though. · 1 minute ago
Rasmussen's national poll is conducted on a three day rolling average. Full results won't be available until Sunday morning. · 27 minutes ago
Is Gallup's also a three-day rolling average? Anyone know? · 26 minutes ago
Gallup is a 7 day track (which is a ludicrous way of doing a poll this late). Obama gained a point today, so there weren't any dramatic pro-Romney swings.
A point is statistical noise, and it would have to be a stunningly big swing to move a 7-day average. You would also have to look back a week and see what happened between the day they dropped off the list and the last day on the list.
Jun '12
Re: Latest Election Polls
captainpower: Frank Luntz said on the Dennis Prager show yesterday that Romney's performance in the last debate pulls him even with President Obama.
According to Luntz, Romney needs another win like that to decisively pull ahead.
He also said it's not a good sign when people are arguing with polls.
(Not completely unexpected that a pollster would have such an opinion. Doesn't mean it's inaccurate though.)
RealClearPolitics average is currently at Obama +3.2
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html · 12 minutes ago
Edited 10 minutes ago
Well, gee, if RCP has Obama winning, I guess there's no reason for me to go to the polls in a few weeks to vote for the presumptive loser Romney, is there?
May '10
Re: Latest Election Polls
This is fantastic news. Florida, Ohio, and Virginia all in play, showing Romney pulling ahead, by polls fully conducted post-debate. Nevada as well. And the poll last week in Pennsylvania showing Romney in play was a huge deal if it proves accurate. Give it a week as the dust settles, but these state polls are highly encouraging and should be reflected in the national polls.
Romney will need to seriously manage expectations for the second debate, but before that...maybe Paul Ryan can deliver another knock-out.
Apr '11
Re: Latest Election Polls
Lucy Pevensie
wmartin
quodlibet
~Paules
wmartin: For the national polls, Rasmussen and Gallup each had one night after the debate. Romney gained no ground in Ras and lost a point in Gallup.
Ras's state polls have better news, though. · 1 minute ago
Rasmussen's national poll is conducted on a three day rolling average. Full results won't be available until Sunday morning. · 27 minutes ago
Is Gallup's also a three-day rolling average? Anyone know? · 26 minutes ago
Gallup is a 7 day track (which is a ludicrous way of doing a poll this late). Obama gained a point today, so there weren't any dramatic pro-Romney swings.
A point is statistical noise, and it would have to be a stunningly big swing to move a 7-day average. You would also have to look back a week and see what happened between the day they dropped off the list and the last day on the list. · 1 hour ago
Obama has had several 2-3 point swings in the 7 day track in the last 6 weeks. He probably has several good days from earlier in the week still there.
Jul '12
Re: Latest Election Polls
And given their close proximity to Russia, I have heard that the Poles have excellent radar.
Thanks folks. I'll be here all week. Tip your server and enjoy the buffet.
Jun '12
Re: Latest Election Polls
RightinChicago
And given their close proximity to Russia, I have heard that the Poles have excellent radar.
Thanks folks. I'll be here all week. Tip your server and enjoy the buffet. · 0 minutes ago
(rimshot)