Last Chance for Republicans?
I’m one of those who believes the 2010 midterm election will be a blowout of historic proportions. Put me down for around a hundred seats in the House and at least ten in the Senate. I say this based on my political savvy, my close reading of the polls and trends, and, of course, the significance of the number 2010 in the Mayan calendar. But, like in the ‘50s science fiction films that put a question mark after “The End,” it’s not the election that will determine the course of the nation, it’s what happens afterwards.
Just as the Democrats misinterpreted their “mandate” after 2008, the Republicans had better take a deep breath the morning of November 3 and remind themselves that they could suffer defeat again in two years if they think this is all about party politics. The coming vote is a rejection of liberal policies, but not necessarily a rejection of everything people thought they were getting with this administration. Americans don’t want a massive new bureaucracy involved in their healthcare decisions, but that doesn’t mean they still don’t want some kind of tweaking of the healthcare system. They may not buy into the anti-capitalist ravings of the Left, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have a certain lingering suspicion when it comes to some big businesses and financial institutions. Do they want a series of Congressional investigations? I’m not so sure. Do they want a dramatic turn to the right on social issues? Better make certain.
The electorate is so upset with the direction of the nation, they’re willing to vote in members of the party they voted out just two years ago. And with that, they’ll be sending a message to politicians of both parties: they’re serious about this, and they’ve figured out how to make term limits work! And both Democrats and Republicans could find out that when voters come to believe in neither party, they’ll come up with a third. This could be the GOP’s last chance.
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Feb '10
Re: Last Chance for Republicans?
This has been my contention as well. It's not business as usual this time. If the Republican Party can't resist the corruptions of power and big government, it is entering the twilight of its lifetime.
We are in or near a generational crisis period, which happens approximately every 80 years. (Crisis periods going back: WW2/Depression, the Civil War, the Revolution.) These periods are marked by increased partisanship, incivility, polarization, and decay of national unity, among other things. Two cycles ago, during that period of chaos, the Whig Party died and the Republican Party was born (among many other much more short-lived parties with curious names like the Know-Nothing Party). The whimsically named Tea Party is not unlike many of the political movements that arise during such periods. Right now it's not an actual political party but it could easily lead to one in the next few election cycles.
May '10
Re: Last Chance for Republicans?
They need to say there's nothing much wrong with the healthcare system: it's not that the doctors and nurses are incompetent or the hospitals are dirty. There is a problem with the health insurance system, and that needs to be fixed WITHOUT messing up the healthcare system.
Feb '10
Re: Last Chance for Republicans?
There's also a health crisis in this country which will not be fixed by tinkering with the way that healthcare is paid for. Obesity, unhealthy foods, and lack of good old exercise are probably the biggest cause of our rising health care costs, not the insurance or health care industries.
Truly "bending the cost curve" requires policies that encourage good health. Before you jump out and say I'm in favor of government telling people what to eat, consider HSAs. These plans use insurance as it should be used: only for catastrophic medical expenses. They return the duty of paying for more routine medical expenses back to the customer (albeit from a special tax-favored "health savings account"). This helps 1) restore the incentive for people to stay healthier, 2) restore the more direct relationship between doctor and patient, and 3) encourages shopping around for basic medical services.
Edited on Oct 11, 2010 at 5:26amJul '10
Re: Last Chance for Republicans?
Establishment Republican Logic Explained (Part 1)
A Scientist had fifty frogs.
He lined them up at one end of his laboratory.
He then took a Cricket Bat and created a sudden noise behind the frogs after which he carefully measured the results.
In his book he wrote: 'Frogs when startled by a sudden noise tend to jump an average of ten feet.'
He then randomly cut one leg off of each frog, he lined them up again and created the same noise with the Cricket Bat and observed the results again.
In his book he wrote: 'Frogs with one leg cut off when startled by a sudden noise tend to jump an average of seven and a half feet.'
He then randomly cut a second leg off of each frog, lined them up again and used the Cricket Bat to create the same noise again.
In his book he wrote: 'Frogs with two legs cut off when startled by a sudden noise tend to jump an average of five feet.'
(Cont.)
Jul '10
Re: Last Chance for Republicans?
(Part 2)
Continuing he randomly cut a third leg off of each frog, lined them up a fourth time and using the Cricket Bat created the same noise.
In his book he wrote: 'Frogs with three legs cut off when startled by a sudden noise tend to jump an average of two and a half feet.'
Realizing he was on to something he proceeded to cut the final leg off of each of the frogs, he then lined them up and grasping his Cricket Bat created the same noise again.
With no reaction from the frogs he continued to slam the Cricket Bat to make his noise in progressively harder strokes.
In his book he wrote:
'The correlation is undeniable.
You can see the deterioration with each leg being removed.
Without question the final result is that with all four legs cut off;
Frogs become completely deaf.'
Jun '10
Re: Last Chance for Republicans?
Right you are, Pat. The days of business as usual are over (I'm talking to you, Trent Lott). At the risk of becoming a repetitive bore, I will remind the readership that Codevilla got it right. This is a fight between the citizenry of our republic and a ruling oligarchy. The election of 2012 is just the first step. We will carry on into 2014 and beyond if that's what it takes to reclaim our republic.
If you consider the senatorial race in Delaware in terms of my statement above, you will understand why the outcome of this particular race is not that important. Even if O'Donnell wins, she needs to be challenged in the 2016 primary on the basis of character. I would rather know a candidate's credit score than his or her stand on the issues. O'Donnell is a deadbeat. That for me is sufficient reason to rate her unqualified for a seat in the Senate.
"Character counts" is more than just a slogan.
Jun '10
Re: Last Chance for Republicans?
Pat is absolutely right that Republicans will have to address the real perceived problems in healthcare, education, and spending and if they can't or won't then they are of no use. With control of the purse strings, they have to challenge the administration to veto realistic conservative solutions and even take a government shutdown if necessary. The president only controls the agenda when Congress is supine. Even with only the House, the Republicans can force issues. Make President Obama into "NoBama" before the 2012 election. I am ready for a show-down (which is not the same thing as being optimistic). The country may not accept conservative solutions, but as someone once said, There is No Alternative. Let's find out.
Edited on Oct 11, 2010 at 6:42amAug '10
Re: Last Chance for Republicans?
I appreciate this is a little off-topic but as an example of how egregiously the Tea- Party is misrepresented by journalists in my part of the world its hard to beat. The lady in question is the US correspondent for the Irish Times and in my view allows her clear biases to affect her coverage of both US and Middle-Eastern matters. This sort of blatant propoganda explains a lot about why there is so much anti-Americanism (or anti-Conservatism at least) not to mention virulent hostility to Israel. In fairness I should say the same newspaper recently ran an opinion piece that was sympathetic to the T. http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2010/1009/1224280699213.html
Aug '10
Re: Last Chance for Republicans?
HSA's seem to be the way to go. We have one and our "deductible" is 20k, I think. The insurer has not paid one red cent in benefits to my family in the three years we've had one. I don't see why a means tested HSA system could not work broadly.
Not a repetitive bore at all. Just a helpful reminder of the truth.
May '10
Re: Last Chance for Republicans?
Pat,
You've hit the nail squarely on the head. This is either going to be a real opportunity or a political earthquake. The mandate will last to the first earmark or big govt. elitist iniciative. Hopefully they have learned their lesson but I remain unconvinced.
May '10
Re: Last Chance for Republicans?
I've watched Pat prognosticate. You don't want to mess with this guy...
Edited on Oct 11, 2010 at 8:51amRe: Last Chance for Republicans?
Thanks a lot for blowing my cover, EJ.
May '10
Re: Last Chance for Republicans?
...hermetically sealed in a mayonnaise jar...
About half of what's to come depends on Obama, about whom there has been much speculation. Will he pull a Clinton or dig in his heels, etc. We can't control that half, because he's a crazy person who's just going to do whatever it is he'll feel like doing.
We can't directly control Congress, either, but we at least have leverage there, and can look over their shoulders making notes on our clipboards, and making tsk, tsk noises every once and a while just to keep them nervously respectful.
Putting a question mark at the end of the movie means no studio has bought the sequel yet. As in Monster-a-Go-Go. Sadly, we'll never find out how that story ended.
Aug '10
Re: Last Chance for Republicans?
Come on, ~Paules, you can't possibly mean that.
Take my annoying obsessive-compulsive Leftie relative. Being obsessive-compulsive, his credit record is perfect -- and he doesn't let you forget it. (He's so proud of that achievement.) And if he were in political power, he'd be regulating everything in your life quicker than you could say "Wha..?"
None of my right-leaning relatives could hope to match his credit score. Not because they're deadbeats, but between medical-bill snafus, or moving recently and (despite filling out all the forms) having bills that don't catch up... if you're not obsessive-compulsive, you simply aren't as talented at processing these headachy minutiae as he is.
I wouldn't call the correlation between credit-score and character exactly robust. On average, credit score may provide some rough proxy for character, but it's very, um... rough.
But, if you like, I could persuade my obsessive-compulsive relative to run for national office. He'd regulate your food and energy consumption -- everything. He'd enjoy the power.
Sound nice?
Edited on Oct 11, 2010 at 8:39amSep '10
Re: Last Chance for Republicans?
Starting with "Americans don’t want a massive new bureaucracy ----", and ending with "better make certain", I think you've got January's situation right. There are real problems which need some federal attention. Like, Medicare is here to stay, but has real fiscal problems facing it. How can they be attended to if we and the left seem to be scorpions in a bottle, or from different planets?
Jun '10
Re: Last Chance for Republicans?
Midget Faded Rattlesnake
Come on, ~Paules, you can't possibly mean that.
Midge, you should know better than to offer a single anecdotal story as an argument against a general statement.
My proposal has merit in that it would detect reckless spendthrifts who can't handle their own money, much less the finances of a nation. Are there exceptions? Well, of course. But a good credit score generally indicates a person who combines the virtues of personal discipline and wise money management. So, yes, I do mean it.
May '10
Re: Last Chance for Republicans?
How one spends one's own money is always substantially different that how one handles someone else's money. It means nothing.
Jul '10
Re: Last Chance for Republicans?
Pat, I think you're half right and let's keep something else in mind as well. If the GOP screws up the golden opportunity to be handed it (and John Boehner seems to be making conflicting noises as to whether or not he gets it), the Tea Party will continue to nominate and elect candidates in the GOP (read Dick Armey's new book). Eventually, the politically "in" folks will be out.
The other thing to keep in mind is that, for now, the DEMS are dead. They've completely blown any chances of being a majority party for their own generational foreseeable future. When you've got fossils such as Dingell and Frank truly threatened and maybe casualties, there's something going on bigger than party politics.
The system is undergoing a radical change, likely much more for the better.
Jun '10
Re: Last Chance for Republicans?
EJHill
How one spends one's own money is always substantially different that how one handles someone else's money. It means nothing. · Oct 11 at 10:24am
Nothing? Would you trust someone who handles his own finances poorly to handle your personal finances for you? Or the nation's finances for all of us?
Aug '10
Re: Last Chance for Republicans?
~Paules: Midget Faded Rattlesnake
Come on, ~Paules, you can't possibly mean that.
Midge, you should know better than to offer a single anecdotal story as an argument against a general statement.
It's a fair cop, ~Paules. I hereby charge myself with being guilty of pettifogging and pedantry.
Sometimes, I can't help it. It's habit: one counterexample is enough to disprove a theory. Technically speaking.