Krauthammer to Us: Obama's Second Term is Very Very Real
In today's NRO, the scary and smart Charles Krauthammer offers this conclusion, designed to keep us from counting our chickens:
Obama is down, but it’s very early in the play. Like Reagan, he came here to do things. And he’s done much in his first 500 days. What he has left to do, he knows, must await his next 500 days — those that come after reelection.
So 2012 is the real prize. Obama sees far, farther than even his own partisans. Republicans underestimate him at their peril.
I'm with Charles. Sort of. I mean, I think Hillary Clinton is going to run in 2012, as I've said on Ricochet.
And I'm not the only one. Pete du Pont, is yesterday's WSJ, makes the case that even establishment Democrats will see the wisdom of dumping Obama and replacing him with Hillary:
And why would the Democratic Party want to do that? Because the re-election of President Obama is becoming more problematic. The latest Rasmussen Reports polls show the dramatic decline of the presidential approval index, the difference between those who "strongly approve" of Mr. Obama's performance and those who "strongly disapprove." It began at plus 25% when the new president was sworn in, and has steadily declined to minus 13%.
It isn't just the president whose poll numbers are falling fast. According to recent Harris polling, Vice President Biden viewed favorably by 26% of the public and unfavorably by 45%. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi does even worse, 20% positive to 49% negative. A June Nevada poll gave Sen. Harry Reid, the majority leader, 33% approval and 52% disapproval.
But the greatest contrast and most interesting statistic is Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's ratings: 45% favorable and only 35% unfavorable.
So the question is, if the Republicans take the House and/or the Senate in November, will Obama be able to do a quick repositioning dance (like Bill Clinton in 1994) and stay alive, or will he be inflexible, arrogant, combative, and doom himself to either facing Hillary Clinton in the snows of New Hampshire, or Jimmy Carter-ville?
Here's my way of answering that question: look at that photo. Does that look like a guy who knows how to pivot?
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May '10
Re: Krauthammer to Us: Obama's Second Term is Very Very Real
Obama is a true believer. The only thing Bill Clinton believed in was Bill Clinton.
Jun '10
Re: Krauthammer to Us: Obama's Second Term is Very Very Real
John Bright's words come to mind: "He's a self-made man, who worships his creator."
Jun '10
Re: Krauthammer to Us: Obama's Second Term is Very Very Real
Evan Bayh might jump in too, coming at it more from the center.
Jul '10
Re: Krauthammer to Us: Obama's Second Term is Very Very Real
Obama's self-image excludes the possibility of not running for a second term. He had a chance to stand down on health care. He did not, and we have Obamacare. He had a chance to design real financial regulatory reform in cooperation with the Congressional majority. He did not, but claims the laurel wreath anyway. He claims credit without taking responsibility. He craves praise regardless of consequence. His conception of opponents is that they are too stupid to understand, or too vile to support his noble policies. He will run again in 2012 regardless of his numbers. The question is whether there will be a primary opponent, and who will face him in the general election under greatly changed circumstances.
May '10
Re: Krauthammer to Us: Obama's Second Term is Very Very Real
I believe it's possible that Obama could win a second term, though 2012 is far too distant to start calculating odds.
One scenario in which Obama could win is if he manages, with the MSM's help, to place the burden of economic failure on a Republican Congress that does nothing but complain while Obama vetoes its every proposal. Regardless of the times, voters want to see accomplishments, rather than mere activity. Voters are fickle. They usually would rather see what's on the other side of the fence than trace current problems to their roots.
Politics is more about perception than reality. Obama is skilled at directing and diverting attention. He's also skilled at creating stick figures and giving people targets for anger. Who knows what problems voters will face two years from now? The more dire our problems, the more receptive voters will be to his manipulations. And the Democratic Party will support him, because Obama is also skilled at extortion and bribery.
May '10
Re: Krauthammer to Us: Obama's Second Term is Very Very Real
The answer to your closing question depends: does a transition from "arrogant" to "pompous" count as a pivot?
Re: Krauthammer to Us: Obama's Second Term is Very Very Real
Nicely put. And I wonder about temperament. As you recall, that's the thing a lot of conservatives were sure about Obama -- he had the right kind of stuff for the job.
But I wonder if he has the charm and guile and -- I'll say it -- political intelligence to be like Clinton, to pivot and dodge and weave (which is what all good presidents have to do to get things done) or the sheer charm to rise above the fray. Let's face it: Newt Gingrich elevated Clinton. I don't think Obama's got the chops to pull that off.
Jul '10
Re: Krauthammer to Us: Obama's Second Term is Very Very Real
"... to pivot and dodge and weave...[?]"
How about bulldoze and raze?
Re: Krauthammer to Us: Obama's Second Term is Very Very Real
I don't think the president has a desire to dodge and weave. Clinton was first and foremost interested in being popular -- moving left if possible, but if not, no biggie -- whereas Obama is all about his ideology. Popularity is only a tool for him, not an end in itself.
Re: Krauthammer to Us: Obama's Second Term is Very Very Real
If I hadn't been reading the comments from last to first I would have skipped my last post: EJHill got there first.
Jul '10
Re: Krauthammer to Us: Obama's Second Term is Very Very Real
Somebody mentioned Evan Bayh, but he couldn't carry his home state right now. Of course, that didn't stop Al Gore, but both of those guys have something in common: they really grew up in D.C.
Re: Krauthammer to Us: Obama's Second Term is Very Very Real
I don't disagree with you, EJHill, or with George. Clinton was a classic survival politician. But in a way, his experience as a governor taught him the lesson that the country is, basically, conservative. Left wing activism just doesn't work here. He messed up early in his first term, but that was frankly an anomaly: his tenure in Arkansas, and his leadership in the Democratic party, was all about being moderate, centrist, and appealing to the great middle.
Obama doesn't have that experience. He just doesn't know how America works. And why should he? He's spent most of his life in crackpot non-profits like Acorn and Harvard Law School and the US Senate.
Jun '10
Re: Krauthammer to Us: Obama's Second Term is Very Very Real
The smart move would be to drop Biden and nominate Hillary for Veep in '12. But would she accept?