Just throwing this out there.
·
Jun 22, 2011 at 6:00pm
Based on Sarah Palin's seeming inability/unwillingness to declare her intentions for 2012, I can't help but think she's the 2012 version of Fred Thompson. What do you think? Would she be able to pull supporters from other candidates as a late entrant to the race?
Disclaimer: I have no agenda here, but I am genuinely curious about how you all feel about this issue.
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Jul '10
Re: Just throwing this out there.
I'm tired of her tickle-and-slap routine. The woman is profoundly un-serious. While she Twitters, Facebooks and takes bus tours, better people than she have stepped up to the plate.
As my daddy would say, ....or get off the pot.
Mar '11
Re: Just throwing this out there.
Fred Thompson was my favorite candidate for 2008, and Sarah Palin for 2012 (absent a Paul Ryan run - he seems to remain unpersuaded by Prof. Rahe's appeal for patriotism - which maybe means he is as sane as Fred Thompson).
She would be able to pull the Tea Party vote from Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain, but would clearly not win over the Kenneth wing of the Republican/Libertarian voting bloc, and maybe the independents, whoever they are.
I have no idea why she is hesitating to run - maybe because she herself doesn't know if she could win - maybe she is also as sane as Fred Thompson?
Edited on Jun 22, 2011 at 6:21pmJul '10
Re: Just throwing this out there.
David Williamson:
I have no idea why she is hesitating to run - maybe because she herself doesn't know if she could win? · Jun 22 at 6:16pm
Edited on Jun 22 at 06:18 pm
Could it be because, having never before made any real money, she wants to ride the Fox News, ghost-written-book and megabucks speaking fee gravy train just as long as she can?
Hey, nothing wrong with cashing in on unearned celebrity. But I want a Ronald Reagan, not a Kim Kardashian.
Jun '10
Re: Just throwing this out there.
I think she's already decided not to run, but she's savvy and knows the longer she plays coy, the more people will come out to see her, the more the press will cover her, she'll raise more money and sell more books.
May '10
Re: Just throwing this out there.
Seems to me she's still thinking and praying it through--feeling things out, seeing how her family handles the tour, watching the Republican field develop, waiting to see whether true conservatism has a viable standard bearer or not, whether Michelle Bachman gets traction, whether Paul Ryan jumps in...
Makes sense to me.
Edited on Jun 22, 2011 at 7:02pmNov '10
Re: Just throwing this out there.
I think it's absurd to start running 16 months (and more) before the election, particularly with summer coming on. She's also already got a great deal of core support, so I think just going around the country strengthening that is far more important than mud wrestling with minor candidates. Disciplining the media is an added bonus.
My bet is that she announces on Constitution Day in September.
May '10
Re: Just throwing this out there.
I disagree emphatically with Kenneth on this point. I think she's a very serious person. A person of rare seriousness.
Whether she has the intellectual chops for the office of President, I don't yet know. I have doubts. I'd like to see her serve as Energy Secretary in the Ryan administration first.
But I put her high on the short list of public officials who clearly have the moral stature for the job.
Paul Ryan is up there too.
Jul '10
Re: Just throwing this out there.
Yeah, quitting the job your constituents expected you to do so you can have your own reality TV show is, like, total gravitas.
Re: Just throwing this out there.
Isn't the tripartite reason for an early start name recognition, base building and fundraising?
I think she has the first two squared away. Any ideas about the third?
Jul '10
Re: Just throwing this out there.
Tommy De Seno: Isn't the tripartite reason for an early start name recognition, base building and fundraising?
I think she has the first two squared away. Any ideas about the third? · Jun 22 at 7:11pm
There's a fourth: the hard work of building a campaign organization. I suspect that part is beyond her: she's barely able to put together a coherent Facebook post.
May '11
Re: Just throwing this out there.
There's nothing wrong with wanting to make money, but I don't think that is her goal, just a side benefit. I suspect that she knows she is likely unelectable, but the more she gets out there, the more she becomes a kingmaker. If she isn't elected president, her intent is to greatly influence who is elected president.
Re: Just throwing this out there.
Kenneth
There's a fourth: the hard work of building a campaign organization. I suspect that part is beyond her: she's barely able to put together a coherent Facebook post. · Jun 22 at 7:18pm
I have no idea if she will run. In fact, I suspect she will not run.
But my sources indicate that on this point, you are misinformed. In order to make a decision about running, you basically have to have the operation ready to go by announcement. Ricochet fave Mitch Daniels' team was extremely surprised by his announcement, for instance.
And based on what I've heard among my consultant friends, this part of the process has been going on.
Aug '10
Re: Just throwing this out there.
Mollie Hemingway, Ed.
Kenneth
There's a fourth: the hard work of building a campaign organization. I suspect that part is beyond her: she's barely able to put together a coherent Facebook post. · Jun 22 at 7:18pm
I have no idea if she will run. In fact, I suspect she will not run.
But my sources indicate that on this point, you are misinformed. In order to make a decision about running, you basically have to have the operation ready to go by announcement. Ricochet fave Mitch Daniels' team was extremely surprised by his announcement, for instance.
And based on what I've heard among my consultant friends, this part of the process has been going on. · Jun 22 at 7:28pm
I am curious to hear your opinion of how well her inner circle and a team of first class consultants would work together.
Newt's team did not suffer his grandiose intransigence. Hustsman's team seems to happy to found in him an odd combination of stalking horse and golden goose.
Given her track record of keeping close counsel and going rouge, wouldn't this seem like the kind of job one thinks twice about taking?
Apr '11
Re: Just throwing this out there.
Tommy De Seno: Isn't the tripartite reason for an early start name recognition, base building and fundraising?
I think she has the first two squared away. Any ideas about the third? · Jun 22 at 7:11pm
I think this is why she will have such a big effect on the race even if she jumps in this late. Because of her high level of support, there will be tons of media attention right away.
As for who she'll draw votes from, I'd say Tea Partiers in the line of Bachmann and Cain. That's her base of support.
May '10
Re: Just throwing this out there.
Palin is just trying to maximize her relevance and market value by keeping silent. That. Is. All.
Re: Just throwing this out there.
Squishy Blue RINO
I am curious to hear your opinion of how well her inner circle and a team of first class consultants would work together. ...
Given her track record of keeping close counsel and going rouge, wouldn't this seem like the kind of job one thinks twice about taking? · Jun 22 at 8:00pm
Well, I think the political professionals dislike her anti-Washington approach. She really doesn't like the way the inside-the-beltway crowd operates. I think the reason why she might have trouble getting staff, however, is not because she goes rogue so much as because her ratings are so low right now. There is a breed of consultants, however, who would love nothing more than to ride this exciting train to wherever it might go. Lots of money to be made one way or the other, after all.
I'm noodling writing something about this general issue (professional DC types vs. 'the others' after following a few other campaigns this past year ... It was enlightening).
Nov '10
Re: Just throwing this out there.
Tommy De Seno: Isn't the tripartite reason for an early start name recognition, base building and fundraising?
I think she has the first two squared away. Any ideas about the third? · Jun 22 at 7:11pm
I can't see that posing a significant problem; again her core support is very committed, and it's getting strengthened by her current tour.
As for the organization - I think what really hurt her in the 2008 campaign was that she was a neophyte, and not well defined. It left too much room for self-obsessed consultants to try and define her in their image, and not hers, and the conflict left the campaign in a bit of a shambles. Coming off the tour - on top of her public image building over the last two years - that won't be possible. The backroom boys are going to have to accept that it is her way or the highway.
As for the facebook postings, I quite enjoy them. She's pithy, usually informal, often amusing, and quite direct. Rare things in a politician.
Aug '10
Re: Just throwing this out there.
Mollie Hemingway, Ed.
Squishy Blue RINO
I am curious to hear your opinion of how well her inner circle and a team of first class consultants would work together. ...
Given her track record of keeping close counsel and going rouge, wouldn't this seem like the kind of job one thinks twice about taking? · Jun 22 at 8:00pm
Well, I think the political professionals dislike her anti-Washington approach. She really doesn't like the way the inside-the-beltway crowd operates. I think the reason why she might have trouble getting staff, however, is not because she goes rogue so much as because her ratings are so low right now. There is a breed of consultants, however, who would love nothing more than to ride this exciting train to wherever it might go. Lots of money to be made one way or the other, after all.
I'm noodling writing something about this general issue (professional DC types vs. 'the others' after following a few other campaigns this past year ... It was enlightening). · Jun 22 at 8:17pm
Thank you Mollie, I look forward to reading it.
May '11
Re: Just throwing this out there.
Kenneth: I'm tired of her tickle-and-slap routine. The woman is profoundly un-serious. While she Twitters, Facebooks and takes bus tours, better people than she have stepped up to the plate.
As my daddy would say, ....or get off the pot. · Jun 22 at 6:07pm
Palin has been out there with her views for over 2 years. She is far more serious than these jump in at the last minute Romney, Huntsman, Trump candidates.
Aug '10
Re: Just throwing this out there.
HalifaxCB
Tommy De Seno: Isn't the tripartite reason for an early start name recognition, base building and fundraising?
I think she has the first two squared away. Any ideas about the third? · Jun 22 at 7:11pm
As for the organization.. Coming off the tour - on top of her public image building over the last two years - that won't be possible. The backroom boys are going to have to accept that it is her way or the highway. · Jun 22 at 8:31pm
Why even sign on under those terms?
If you were a on everyone's shortlist, a proven consultant, pollster, fundraiser, policy guy, message guy- why not go where the candidate sees the value of your expertise?