July Crystal Ball
In a couple of days, I trade in the Mediterranen-like confines of Palo Alto for two weeks in Northern Europe with my father.
We're scheduled to sail from Southampton, on Wednesday, on a 12-day cruise that includes the following ports of call: Copenhagen, Stockholm, Helsinki, St. Petersburg, Tallinn, Zeebrugge, then back to the U.K. and, eventually, California.
That puts me back in my Palo Alto bed and waking up the morning of August 2, just in time for you-know-what-ageddon.
So my questions to you, while I'm out of the country:
1) The debt ceiling. Speak up if you think the GOP will decide to roll the dice and let August 2 arrive without a deal in place. Otherwise, tell me when the deal will be cut, the formula of spending cuts vs. taxes, if you expect much of anything will be done to entitlements, and who iyo emerges as the winner -- Obama, McConnell . . . ?
2) The GOP field. I'm returning home less than two weeks before the August 13 Ames Straw Poll (Tim Pawlenty's last stand?) and the Fox News/Washington Examiner debate two days prior to the actual straw poll. Do you expect Rick Perry to be in the race by then (opinions vary)? Giuliani continues to kick around New Hampshire; Palin remains mum in a most visible way. Any chance of clarity from those two?
3) The markets. You hear buzz that it'll take a 700-point hit to the Dow to force both sides to more quickly compromise on the debt ceiling. Suffice to say: the markets already have a case of the heebie-jeebies. Do you think Wall Street will remain calm, or am I coming home to a Dow that will be several hundred points lighter?
Final question: Peter Robinson was kind enough to suggest that I drop a line or two to Ricochet while I'm my voyage. If the Internet gods and the good folks at Cunard cooperate, that's possible.
Question is: what's worth your while to convey?
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Comments :
May '11
Re: July Crystal Ball
As to your final question, I would be interested in hearing how the natives in the places you visit feel about the potential collapse of the EU. I suspect the EU is more unpopular than the press wants to admit. As to the first three questions, I would advise you to use your internet connection for sending your post without knowledge of what is going on here. You will find that the situation will be very much as it was when you left.
Jul '11
Re: July Crystal Ball
1) Some McConnell like plan(a delaying tactic) will be pasted together. A partial loss for both sides, the media lauds Obama's cool under pressure and condemns the GOP and their gozillionaire puppet masters. Somehow grandma gets cat food money due to the presidents magnanimous compromise.
2) Rick Perry will enter the race after the debt issue is partially settled.
3) The markets will soar after the "compromise" and the impeding QE whatever implied by the one trick pony this week. This will be the economic "boom" Obama wants to propel him to re-election even sans jobs.
4) Is Germany starting to sing marching songs again?
Jul '10
Re: July Crystal Ball
1) I think the GOP will fold like a cheap suit. Although I very much hope otherwise, I find nothing in their history to suggest they will suddenly transcend their inside the Beltway existence for the sake of the nation. This House voted to extend Obamacare to veterinarians, for crying out loud, having sold themselves on a repeal Obamacare ticket. The only thing in this life less sincere than a Republican is a Democrat.
2) The field at this point is Romney, the media's strawman primary candidate to finally eliminate Obamacare as an issue, or Bachmann, the only Republican with polling numbers that is willing to face the media fire in a chance to achieve real reform. She is a better candidate at this stage than Palin, who has done nothing to make people forget she abandoned her governorship.
3) I have moved out of American stocks entirely.
Jun '11
Re: July Crystal Ball
1- The game of charades ends in DC with some sort of plan that allows everyone to declare victory-- probably McConnell with a tweak or two.
2-Perry gets in within the next 10 days. Palin watches the reaction to Perry's entry closely. Giuliani supposedly ran in 2008 but nobody remembers it. This time he won't run and nobody will care one way or the other.
3- The markets will go into a much-needed correction after a deal is struck in DC in typical "sell on the news" behavior.
Travel safely.
Re: July Crystal Ball
4) Is Germany starting to sing marching songs again? · Jul 15 at 1:32pm
We won't be stopping at any German ports (Warnemunde sometimes being a port of call on Baltic voyages as it enables a day-trip to Berlin).
But if I do hear people singing German marching songs in Belgium, I guess that will answer your question. :)
Apr '11
Re: July Crystal Ball
1) We will have a plan that saves the Democrats and Republicans but will only further damn the Republic to further economic destruction down that road where the " Ditch" is and the can is being kicked.
2) Rick Perry will get in around Labor day when all this debt issue is quiet (we hope) and everyone is in a holiday mood, oppressed teachers will be starting their school year (you know for the kids) and Romney will have surfaced to get hammered.
3) The markets will still do what they have been doing because the core issues will still not be settled, as in taxes, health care, trade agreements, EPA enstranglements and the like.
Have a great cruise!
P.S. Check for any succession news and to make sure the 405 is operational before returning to CA