Judith?
In "Will Israel Attack Iran?", the article in the New York Times Magazine to which I posted a link below, another excerpt:
As we spoke, a man approached and, having recognized me as a journalist who reports on these issues, apologized before asking: “When is the war going to break out? When will the Iranians bomb us?”....I tried to reassure the man that we wouldn’t be nuked tomorrow. Similar scenes occur almost every day —Israelis watch the news, have heard that bomb shelters are being prepared, know that Israel test-fired a missile into the sea two months ago--and a kind of panic has begun to overtake Israeli society, anxiety that missiles will start raining down soon.
"Panic?" This struck me as exaggerated--a false note in a report that otherwise seemed to ring true. On the other hand, how would I know? Then it occurred to me: Ask Judith.
Is there indeed a growing sense of anxiety in Israel, Judith? How are people responding to this article in the Times? As this issue builds, what is everyday life like?
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Feb '11
Re: Judith?
Judith I am not, but I do live in Jerusalem.
You cannot live in fear, so we don't. I think it's that simple.
Apr '11
Re: Judith?
One useful metric is availability of very large concrete and earth penetrating bombs. Long under development, the US Air Force took delivery of the first eight 30,000 pound "Big BLUs" about 2.5 months ago. These are as much as 15 times as large as the penetrating bombs shipped to Israel not too long ago. There is not much use in attacking Iran if you can't get to the nuclear processing facilities and destroy them.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2062662/Is-15-ton-bunker-buster-bomb-destroy-Irans-nuclear-arsenal.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHKkzuU2qtE
"September 25, 2011, The U.S. has recently delivered deep penetration guided bombs to Israel, according to the New York Times quoting unidentified U.S. officials. In the past, Israel requested such weapons several times but delivery was halted due to political pressure. EGBU-28 weapons were already on the way to Israel two years ago but the shipment was diverted elsewhere."
http://defense-update.com/20110925_egbu-28-gbu-37-blu-113-deep-penetrating-weapon.html
May '10
Re: Judith?
This is how Obama can win the election. Possibly the only way.
Re: Judith?
Hi, Peter. I read this piece this morning and actually snorted aloud when I hit that bit about our collective panic. It's dismaying to read something so patently out of touch with the reality of life here nestled within a piece that appears on most all other counts to be based on fact (to the extent that any article on this subject can be based on fact). It made me doubt everything else in the piece, which was disconcerting (Bergman is an extremely highly regarded journalist).
On reflection, it's quite alarming that Bergman is perceiving a general panic, because that perception probably reflects the attitudes of the people in his circle -- and as they're mostly well-connected intelligence people, that's hardly reassuring. Down here among the tennis moms and other suburbanites, there is no panic at all. No one is discussing Iran much, and no one is discussing this article. For all the speculation, no one knows the reality of Israel's planning or the reality of Iran's decision-making; nor does anyone know how much of anything we read about is pure theater. No, we're not panicking. There really isn't much point.
Jan '11
Re: Judith?
"Is there indeed a growing sense of anxiety in Israel, Judith?"
What possible answer is there other than "We have lived in anxiety since 1947 for the very same reason: Arab and Iranian threats and Arab and Iraniam terrorism." What has changed other than the threats have increased and they are made more ominous by the increased capabilities of perverse science?
To sit passively by, as the Obama administration counsels, while your enemies threaten your very life, is madness. The Israelis aren't an irrational people. Irrespective of what the Obama administration wants to happen, the Israelis know the difference between dreams and reality - and they will act on the reality.
When the offspring of Holocaust survivors say "Never again," take them at their word.
Re: Judith?
Viator, the targets in Iran are scattered over an enormous territory and the most sensitive are 200 feet underground. Whopper bunker busters would certainly help, but they will not wipe out the program, and Iran's inevitable retaliation against us would have to be taken into account. I'm with Rafi Eitan on this -- as long as the mullahs are in place, nobody's stopping them from getting their bomb; all anyone can do is delay it. The only way to make Iran a relatively safe neighbor is to change the regime.
Feb '11
Re: Judith?
Anon: "Is there indeed a growing sense of anxiety in Israel, Judith?"
What possible answer is there other than "We have lived in anxiety since 1947 for the very same reason: Arab and Iranian threats and Arab and Iraniam terrorism."
Actually, until 1979, Iran was a friendly country. My father used to go there on business a couple of times a year during the 1970s. On El Al.
Re: Judith?
Paris, I think it will take Obama a good deal less than wiping out the Iranian nuclear program to win the election, alas.
Apr '11
Re: Judith?
Well, Ms. Levy, you don't know whether Israel would wipe out the program. They certainly wiped out the the Syrian "program." They certainly wiped out the Iraqi "program" in 1981. In fact, I would say Israel has a pretty darned good record of wiping out programs. We also don't what would happen if some incident triggers military action and Iran attacks the US Navy or attempts to close the Strait of Hormuz.
We also don't know what is going on in the minds of the main actors. We only have declarations from a number of prominent Israelis that they don't want to live in a M.E. with several nuclear armed neighbors. Some predominantly Sunni states don't want a Shia nuclear state. I certainly wouldn't want to live near a nuclear armed Muslim Brotherhood or Salafist regime.The same might be said for a Twelver regime.
Maybe some alternative to military action will be found. Maybe Israel will just bow to reality and hope for the best with a M.E. MAD policy. Time will tell.
Edited on January 29, 2012 at 10:09pmRe: Judith?
Viator, the Syrian and Iraqi programs consisted of one site each. I point this out not to minimize the Israeli accomplishment in destroying them but to note that as impressive as those successes were, the Iranian logistical situation is not remotely analagous to them, and it's foolhardy in the extreme to extrapolate the results of a strike on Iranian facilities based on the results of the Syrian and Iraqi strikes.
I have no more desire to live near a nuclear armed Muslim Brotherhood, Salafist or Twelver regime than you do. That being said, I refuse either to be chased out of town or worked into a lather of anxiety over the intentions of our neighbors, our leaders, or the leaders of our purported allies. I firmly believe Israel will not countenance another mass destruction of a Jewish population but also believe Israel will think long and hard before visiting mass destruction on any other population, no matter how psychopathic their leadership may be. Every attempt must be made to evict the cataclysmically dangerous Iranian leadership before mass carnage is rained down on the heads of a hostage Iranian population.
Re: Judith?
The loveliest words I've read all day. My thanks, tennis Mom.
Re: Judith?
You know what? That's a beautiful definition of "courage."
Dec '11
Re: Judith?
Judith, Israel wouldn't have to penetrate 200 feet of earth and concrete to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities. Israel would need only to use a limited number of tactical nuclear strikes in order to destroy Iran's energy, transportation, communications and military infrastructure.
As I noted on another thread, it's hard to process uranium and build warheads by candle light.
So my question to you is: would the people of Israel, under existential threat, support such a strike?
Jan '12
Re: Judith?
I wonder whether Israelis ability to live without fear is related to their certainty that massive and unrelenting retaliation will follow any nuclear attack that may be initiated against their homeland.
Edited on January 29, 2012 at 11:12pmJun '10
Re: Judith?
This is an assumption, not a fact. "Spooky" has told me that no one knows for sure how deeply these facilities are buried. It's an unknown variable in the equation. I'm not saying it's an insurmountable problem, but it does add complexity.
Re: Judith?
Nobody, my totally unscientific response to your question is a conjecture: that if you interviewed a cross section of Israelis, the majority would oppose a strike. The reasons are: 1) many Israelis (when pressed) are worried about the blowback from Iran (in the form not only of direct strikes from Iran itself but also in the form of a two-pronged assault at much closer quarters from Hezbollah in the north and Hamas in the west [notwithstanding the bad blood right now between Iran and Hamas]); 2) there is a thread of hope that after Assad's fall, Hezbollah et al will be cut off at the knees, and the last thing we want to do right now is get in the way of either of those results; 3) there is a queasiness here toward collective punishment that's so deep in the Israeli psyche that it's institutionalized in the ethos of the Israeli army; and 4) there is an apprehension that as we are invariably blamed simply for defending ourselves, we will be consigning ourselves to permanent pariah status for taking such drastic offensive preemptive action. That's my guess.
Dec '11
Re: Judith?
This is an assumption, not a fact. "Spooky" has told me that no one knows for sure how deeply these facilities are buried. It's an unknown variable in the equation. I'm not saying it's an insurmountable problem, but it does add complexity.
You misunderstand me. I am saying that Israel could cut off Iran at the knees without even striking directly at hardened facilities. A limited tactical nuclear strike against other infrastructure would render those nuclear. facilities impotent.
May '10
Re: Judith?
I read somewhere (sorry, can't remember where) that bombing the entrance ways to these sites would do great damage-- collapsing the access tunnels and effectively shutting the facilities down for quite a long time.
We might be in for a decade of varying degrees of sabotage, these strikes included, and not a single thumping end to the threat.
Dec '11
Re: Judith?
Noesis Noeseos: I wonder whether Israelis ability to live without fear is related to their certainty that massive and unrelenting retaliation will follow any nuclear attack that may be initiated against their homeland. · 18 minutes ago
Edited 16 minutes ago
Probably not, as the kind of people who would launch a nuclear attack wouldn't worry about the consequences and so would not be deterred. More likely, it is an example of adaptation. Being in a state of constant anxiety is bad for one's physical and mental health, so our brains adjust to block it out. This is similar to how your brain ignores the skin telling it you are wearing clothes.
Dec '11
Re: Judith?
More likely, it is an example of adaptation. Being in a state of constant anxiety is bad for one's physical and mental health, so our brains adjust to block it out. This is similar to how your brain ignores the skin telling it you are wearing clothes.
Just so. But do Israelis not remember how many of the Jews of Europe comforted themselves with the delusion that a Holocaust was not on the horizon, as they submitted, step by step, along the way to their doom?
For the sake of Israel, I devoutly hope that "never again" really means "never again".