Jews More Supportive of the GOP in 2010
Tevi Troy ·
Nov 3, 2010 at 3:08pm
I put an item up a few weeks ago about possible changes in the Jewish vote in the 2010 election, suggesting that Jews will give Republicans more support in 2010 than they did in 2008. Both J Street and the Republican Jewish Coalition, normally antagonistic organizations, did exit polling of Jewish voters and found that Republicans got just over 30% of the Jewish votes in the 2010 election. Since Jews have given Republicans only about 24% on average in off year elections, this means that Republicans overperformed among Jewish voters yesterday. This is good news for the GOP. If the 2012 Republican presidential candidate were to win over 30% of the Jewish vote, that would probably coincide with a landslide victory for the GOP.
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Comments :
Aug '10
Re: Jews More Supportive of the GOP in 2010
Good news for Israel too.
Jul '10
Re: Jews More Supportive of the GOP in 2010
Good stuff, a 25% increase is nothing to be despised, or wasted. Thanks, Pres. Obama.
C'mon now. You're right that "it would probably coincide with a landslide" but it sure wouldn't cause it.
What are we talking about here, 4.5 million voters, maybe? I doubt that the extra 275,000 votes (assuming that the Jewish vote is also 24% for the GOP in Presidential election years, even if it's half that we're talking about fewer that 900,000 votes) will guarantee a blowout.
Edited on Nov 3, 2010 at 8:22pmRe: Jews More Supportive of the GOP in 2010
Palaeologus is right to note that I carefully calibrated my statement to say that if there were a bump in the GOP Jewish vote in 2012 along the lines of what we saw on Tuesday, that would signal, but by no means cause, a big GOP win in 2012. Election watchers often look at specific demographic groups' voting patterns to get a sense of the broader electorate. If 2004, for example, the Bush campaign won by maintainings its 2000 share of the evangelical vote, but increasing its share among Hispanics (from 37 to 43), Jews (from 19 to 24) and blacks (from 9 to 11).
May '10
Re: Jews More Supportive of the GOP in 2010
About time they stopped actualizing James Baker III's appalling comment. But I am disappointed that we couldn't even get to a third after TVG's disgusting conduct toward Bibi.