It's Over
Aw, heck. If Bill Kristol is willing to throw in the towel, then so am I. Over at the Weekly Standard Bill writes:
It's over: CNN estimates that Barack Obama has won enough delegates to clinch the Democratic nomination for president in 2012.
Oh—the Republicans? OK, I'll concede that contest is getting close to over as well. Mitt Romney will almost certainly be the GOP nominee. Rick Santorum is entitled to stay in the race, and to offer voters in the remaining states an alternative. But it's probably time for him to do what Mike Huckabee did in similar circumstances in 2008—basically to stop attacking the almost inevitable nominee, and instead to adjust his own message going forward to a positive and issues-based one.
Bill continues, offering to Mitt Romney a few words of encouragement--and warning:
For his part, Romney is entitled to savor a hard-earned victory. But not for long. He needs to begin to figure out how to win the general election. In a way, the remaining two months of primaries is a great opportunity for Romney. On the surface, he can go through the motions of finishing up the nomination campaign, using his current team and delivering his familiar message. It will look like business as usual. But beneath the surface, Romney should be quietly but purposefully developing a new and much improved business plan for the fall. Absent adjustment, Romney's effort to unseat the incumbent president now feels destined to recapitulate the losing efforts of Bob Dole in 1996 or John Kerry in 2004.
The former governor of Massachusetts has waged a campaign good enough to grind down a set of weak opponents--but not nearly good enough to take on a talented and ruthless incumbent.
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Apr '11
Re: It's Over
Mark Wilson: Over? Did you say over?! · 7 hours ago
Edited 7 hours ago
Right now, that clip's very instructive. When Bluto runs out of the living room shouting, "Who's with me!?," he's followed out of the room just like Romney right now.
In the movie version, Bluto becomes Senator Blutarsky...and gets Babs to boot. Question is, does Romney have the rhetorical skills to call the rank & file, like Henry V at Agincourt, to the barricades?
I watched Blutarsky. I laughed at Blutarsky. Blutarsky was an adolescent friend of mine. Governor Romney is no Senator Blutarsky.
Mar '12
Re: It's Over
If you've listened to Romneys victory speeches since Super Tuesday, they've all been quite good, not to mention well delivered. Hand wringing over whether Romney can effectively attack Obama and present a clear, compelling, conservative choice are totally misplaced IMO. My worry is that the country doesn't reall understand our situation and is too dependent on government goodies to make the change that is necessary.
Mar '11
Re: It's Over
We'd better pray no one dies on SCOTUS for the next five years or so. Ah well. On to 2016.
Sep '11
Re: It's Over
In an attempt to lessen Peter's despair, a bit of good news, from Rasmussen Reports daily tracking: Romney 47%, Obama 44%.
Conclusive? Of course not. But it is a sign that when Obama campaigns actively, he drives people away more than he attracts. We have a very, very long way to go. Let us hope Romney continues his track of improvement (his victory speech in WI last night was very good) and paints the proper contrast between himself and Obama.
Dec '10
Re: It's Over
Who am I to disagree with Bill Kristol, but it seems to me this election is more like 1980 and 1992 than 1996, 2004, or 2008. We have a sitting president who seems to be unbeatable, like Carter in '76 and Bush in '92, who nonetheless were beaten badly by opponents who were considered second rate at this stage of the cycle. In both of those years, the failed economy was considered the paramount issue and all Reagan and Clinton had to do was present themselves as reasonable alternatives. For all of Romney's shortcomings, he's far more likable that Dole, far more energetic than McCain, and far more intelligent than Kerry (as well as Dole and McCain). His victory speech in Wisconsin was spot on and if he can hone his message of Obama's dismal performance with a positive message of the opportunity society, I see every reason to believe he will be a highly competitive candidate. Maybe Kristol is playing the voice of reason by communicating to us (and Romney) not to be complacent. But to be pessimistic at this point (a la George Will) is, it seems to me, counter productive and just plain silly
Apr '11
Re: It's Over
Whiskey Sam
That's because McCain wasn't running against an incumbent. He was explicitly making a comparison to the last two campaigns against an incumbent President which both failed. And yes, so far the decided lack of enthusiasm for Romney does feel an awful lot like those campaigns. This can be overcome which is why Kristol tempers his comment with "absent adjustment". He's saying more of the same won't win the election, and he's right. · 9 hours ago
I'm justly chastised regarding the McCain comment; apparently my sleepy reading comprehension skills failed me.
Regarding the necessity of serious adjustment, I'm not sure that I see strong evidence. We're ahead in the polls, ahead in enthusiasm, look decently likely to be ahead in fundraising, and we'll be even better on polls and enthusiasm when Newt and Rick stop talking (and, with luck, in Rick's case start campaigning helpfully). It's not like the election's in the bag, but it's not lost, either.
Endlessly noting Obama's refusal to face reality (of which Geitner's "We don't have a solution, but we don't like yours" is perfect) seems OK.
May '10
Re: It's Over
Tommy De Seno: As the Supreme Court prepares to declare individual spending mandates unconstitutional, the Republicans prepare to endorse the leading proponent of individual spending mandates.
Good grief. Who will save the Republic now?
Nine unelected government officials, it appears. · 2 hours ago
Edited 2 hours ago
Not exactly, given that 1) Newt strongly supported the individual mandate, 2) so did Santorum in his 1994 Senate race (as well as backing Romney in 2008), and 3) Romney proposed every possible alternative to the insurance-or-penalty in 2006, and got shot down on all of them by an 85% Dem legislature.
The victory speeches have been pretty good, he has, since the beginning, aimed at Obama, and his campaign has been pretty ruthless in airing ads. We don't need to worry about McCain-style kid-glove treatment. We will get continuous "President Golf", "President Solyndra", and "President Vacation" partying while the economy burns and gas skyrockets. Had Romney run a Santorum-style campaign instead of also looking ahead to the general, he would have wrapped up sooner.
I just wish he would fire Eric Fehrnstrom. Campaign strategists need to understand when to shut up instead of preening for cameras.
Jul '10
Re: It's Over
Tommy De Seno: As the Supreme Court prepares to declare individual spending mandates unconstitutional, the Republicans prepare to endorse the leading proponent of individual spending mandates.
Good grief. Who will save the Republic now?
Nine unelected government officials, it appears. · 9 hours ago
Edited 9 hours ago
You called it, Tommy. Disgraceful. The GOP has gone out of its way this year to validate my lifelong decision not to associate.
The only suspense now seems to be what ludicrous pathological psychosis Andrew Sullivan will visit upon this ticket.
Oct '11
Re: It's Over
Yawn. Romney may surprise us, but I suppose now we'll see the traditional turn to the center. That's a short enough distance that he should manage it gracefully enough.
Dec '11
Re: It's Over
Enough with the yawns! There is absolutely nothing boring-whatsoever- about $250 million earned.
Oct '10
Re: It's Over
I really hoped the most viable non-Romneys weren't eliminated first (Pawlenty, Perry, Huntsman).
Mar '11
Re: It's Over
Are you the sort who reads management books for fun?
Feb '11
Re: It's Over
John Marzan
I really hoped the most viable non-Romneys weren't eliminated first (Pawlenty, Perry, Huntsman). · 8 hours ago
With maybe the exception of Perry (maybe), I'd take Romney over any of these candidates and I'm glad they dropped out. What made Huntsman viable to you, for example?
Oct '10
Re: It's Over
Yeah, Huntsmen seemed to have some of the same character flaws as Romney, despite his stronger conservative record as governor of Utah.
Ed G.
John Marzan
I really hoped the most viable non-Romneys weren't eliminated first (Pawlenty, Perry, Huntsman). · 8 hours ago
With maybe the exception of Perry (maybe), I'd take Romney over any of these candidates and I'm glad they dropped out. What made Huntsman viable to you, for example? · 8 hours ago
Apr '11
Re: It's Over
Huntsman was weaker on spending and education. Did you just mean Romneycare, or were you referring to something else?
Apr '11
Re: It's Over
Casey
Are you the sort who reads management books for fun? ·
There's nothing wrong with being more excited by steak than by sizzle.