It's Over
Aw, heck. If Bill Kristol is willing to throw in the towel, then so am I. Over at the Weekly Standard Bill writes:
It's over: CNN estimates that Barack Obama has won enough delegates to clinch the Democratic nomination for president in 2012.
Oh—the Republicans? OK, I'll concede that contest is getting close to over as well. Mitt Romney will almost certainly be the GOP nominee. Rick Santorum is entitled to stay in the race, and to offer voters in the remaining states an alternative. But it's probably time for him to do what Mike Huckabee did in similar circumstances in 2008—basically to stop attacking the almost inevitable nominee, and instead to adjust his own message going forward to a positive and issues-based one.
Bill continues, offering to Mitt Romney a few words of encouragement--and warning:
For his part, Romney is entitled to savor a hard-earned victory. But not for long. He needs to begin to figure out how to win the general election. In a way, the remaining two months of primaries is a great opportunity for Romney. On the surface, he can go through the motions of finishing up the nomination campaign, using his current team and delivering his familiar message. It will look like business as usual. But beneath the surface, Romney should be quietly but purposefully developing a new and much improved business plan for the fall. Absent adjustment, Romney's effort to unseat the incumbent president now feels destined to recapitulate the losing efforts of Bob Dole in 1996 or John Kerry in 2004.
The former governor of Massachusetts has waged a campaign good enough to grind down a set of weak opponents--but not nearly good enough to take on a talented and ruthless incumbent.
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Jul '11
Re: It's Over
It's not just team Romney now but the super PACs . The key is not at all how Romney brands himself or whatever conservative message he puts forth. The fact is this has to be all about Obama and his crooked minions. Romney is milquetoast. Obama is a vile manipulative hate filled narcissist bent on the destruction of America. Now lets prove this to enough independents.
May '10
Re: It's Over
Wait a second, let's investigate some of the Democratic primary candidates a little closer:
Wikipedia: Democratic Party presidential candidates, 2012
Wow, I just learned there's a candidate running named Vermin Supreme.
Apr '11
Re: It's Over
Very glad to have you on board, Peter.
In my happy fantasy land, Santorum comes to an agreement with Mitt whereby Mitt airs no ads in Pennsylvania mentioning or referring to Santorum, and Santorum adjusts to the Huckabee role you mention. Even surrendering Pennsylvania to Santorum would be worth it. The attacks on Mitt's honesty, dishonest attacks on his fiscal record, and on his character (claiming that he has no convictions), go right to the heart of Obama's attacks on Romney. The stuff he occasionally gets into about "big city" republicans and the corrupt party establishment is damaging to our congressional races, too.
That said, we do not want, under any circumstances, to see Santorum quit the race before Newt or Texas, whichever comes first. Everything Santorum does wrong, Newt does worse, and more effectively. There's a reason that the President was raising Newt's profile tonight.
May '10
Re: It's Over
Peter, as I've said elsewhere, there are two things I think Romney (the presumptive candidate) must do to beat Obama in the main election.
First, he must get on offense — thereby breaking with decades of Republican tradition — and stay there. Democrats and their friends in the media will demonize our nominee and try to control the public debate. Romney must avoid being trapped by pointed questions and accusations by turning them around on liberals.
For example, his response to any question about contraception should begin and end by stating that it is a phony issue and the reporter should be ashamed to have participated in such obvious manipulation. Refuse to debate the value or legality of contraception. Just point out that no Republican in Congress proposed any legislation relating to it, then refuse to comment further.
Second, the Republican candidate must understand that facts and arguments aren't enough. Obama is going to lie through his teeth about the past four years, but he will do so with such apparent sincerity that many voters will doubt their own memories (the Big Lie). Like Reagan, our candidate must talk about first principles and hope while mocking Obama's claims.
Apr '11
Re: It's Over
Incidentally, I do think it's funny that in his poorly made claim that Mitt would fail, Bill Kristol makes the usual Kerry/ Dole comparisons, but leaves off the Weekly Standard supported McCain comparison. The man is utterly shameless. I don't mean that in a broad sense; he's often an interesting and insightful pundit, but I do think that he's unusual in his capacity for this sort of thing.
In terms of the general, we're not on such a bad course at the moment; Rasmussen Tracking has him ahead of Obama in votes, there's a positive intensity gap, and his approval should increase when Newt and Rick shut up. It's true that this was true of moments in 2008, too, but that was accurate; if McCain's response to the crash had been defter, and the Palin roll out had gone better, he really could have won.
Unlike Kerry, Romney is going to great lengths to treat 2008 Obama voters with respect, not acting as if he's entitled to take it, or as if all right thinking people know he'll be President. He's presenting a choice.
This race is not 1996.
Edited on April 4, 2012 at 9:46amJun '10
Re: It's Over
I think a lot of Ronald Reagan's appeal was the consistently strong image and personality that he projected. Most of that was natural, but no doubt some of it was acting. And that's not a criticism. If you can't be consistent naturally, you have to channel someone like John Wayne, for example, who's strong and consistent. You can call that being phony, but if you genuinely love and admire John Wayne, then it's not being phony--it's being a better version of yourself. If you talk and walk and look like your father, that's not phony. That's just accepting an influence and using it.
So, if Romney's not making the sale as Mitt Romney, he needs to inhabit someone else a little bit. I think that's what Obama did. He was channeling a cross between Morgan Freeman and Bill Cosby, wearing a Martin Luther King dark suit, and it worked. People felt like they knew him and liked him based on very little information. That's acting. Obama certainly didn't get there with his own cold fish personality. He was doing some acting. That's part of the game.
Jan '11
Re: It's Over
Peter Robinson has now conceded the nom to Romney? [Slow golf clap]It had to happen, for better or worse. Romney can be a good candidate. We need to support and hone him. He will not disappoint!He is the Repub ideal - spotless personal history, pro business, pragmatic, and a guy who is a man of faith but who is willing to check his religious dogma at the door.If he says the right things about race (we are all American, I want to be president of all people in the country, not just the ones that look like me, etc) and social issues (I'm not here to spy on adults in their own bedrooms) and "civil unions are open to discussion, but religions shouldn't be forced to move ahead of their beliefs when it comes to marriage" - well, then he'd be perfect right?
May '10
Re: It's Over
Over? Did you say over?!
Edited on April 4, 2012 at 9:23amApr '11
Re: It's Over
etoiledunord:
So, if Romney's not making the sale as Mitt Romney, he needs to inhabit someone else a little bit. I think that's what Obama did. He was channeling a cross between Morgan Freeman and Bill Cosby, wearing a Martin Luther King dark suit, and it worked. People felt like they knew him and liked him based on very little information. That's acting. Obama certainly didn't get there with his own cold fish personality. He was doing some acting. That's part of the game.
He is making the sale. He's not romping home to victory in the general at the moment, but he's ahead. Romney's not an actor; it's just not who he is. The regular claims that if Romney were such a great manager, he'd fire everyone don't pay enough attention to the transaction costs of doing so, nor nearly enough attention to the odds of an improvement.
What would a new approach be? Gaffe free? Some other change? Most of the changes recommended, like "talk about freedom", are the fruit of people not listening; he talks about freedom. Others, like "repudiate Romneycare" are not about the campaign.
Oct '10
Re: It's Over
I hope James is right, and Romney doesn't repeat Kerry's mistakes of 2004. There are some disturbing similarities, including the creation of unique media memes to describe their squishyness (flip-flop for Kerry, Etch-A-Sketch for Romney).
Jul '11
Re: It's Over
Romney sort of reminds me of a horse running in the 5th race of the day, that is so slow it is still running when the 6th race starts and is now having problems staying ahead of the 6th race horses.
Oct '10
Re: It's Over
In the debates, i fear obama will become reagan and zing romney with a few one-liners on his hypocrisy re obamacare vs romneycare. Romney better be careful not to let obama seize the opening.
As for VP, the only guy who may accept the job and be a great addition is rudy giuliani. He has high name ID, which means people are already familiar with him, which means the dems will have a difficult time scaring voters like they did in 2008. He's a hero to repubs and new yorkers twice, first when he fixed NY city in the 90s, then as america's mayor after 9/11. He can step in anytime if Romney becomes incapacitated.
Apr '11
Re: It's Over
John Marzan:
As for VP, the only guy who may accept the job and be a great addition is rudy giuliani. He has high name ID, which means people are already familiar with him, which means the dems will have a difficult time scaring voters like they did in 2008. He's a hero to repubs and new yorkers twice, first when he fixed NY city in the 90s, then as america's mayor after 9/11. He can step in anytime if Romney becomes incapacitated. · 12 minutes ago
Romney's made only one promise regarding the VP, but that is that he/ she will be pro-life. Not gonna be Giuliani.
Aug '11
Re: It's Over
Ruthless, yes but talented? How do you figure?
May '10
Re: It's Over
re VP: Romney's single biggest challenge will be winning OH -- he wins it and he's president; he loses it and he's Kerry. Things are quietly improving here (unemployment now in the 7's after being in the 10's) and Obama will get much credit, even though the reviled Kasich is deserving. So for VP, the very popular Sen. Rob Portman (yawn, I know) is Romney's logical choice.
Mar '11
Re: It's Over
It's all over... this one is a gimme for Obama the Unbeatable.
Jul '10
Re: It's Over
Don Tillman: Wait a second, let's investigate some of the Democratic primary candidates a little closer:
Wikipedia: Democratic Party presidential candidates, 2012
Wow, I just learned there's a candidate running named Vermin Supreme. · 7 hours ago
Vermin Supreme is a funny guy. He's being doing that Friendly Fascist schtick for years running for whichever party strikes his mood that year.
Feb '11
Re: It's Over
James Of England: Incidentally, I do think it's funny that in his poorly made claim that Mitt would fail, Bill Kristol makes the usual Kerry/ Dole comparisons, but leaves off the Weekly Standard supported McCain comparison. The man is utterly shameless. I don't mean that in a broad sense; he's often an interesting and insightful pundit, but I do think that he's unusual in his capacity for this sort of thing.
.....
In fairness to Kristol, I think he's making a comparison to less-than-inspiring candidates challenging a sitting incumbent. McCain 2008 doesn't qualify.
Jul '10
Re: It's Over
That's because McCain wasn't running against an incumbent. He was explicitly making a comparison to the last two campaigns against an incumbent President which both failed. And yes, so far the decided lack of enthusiasm for Romney does feel an awful lot like those campaigns. This can be overcome which is why Kristol tempers his comment with "absent adjustment". He's saying more of the same won't win the election, and he's right.
Re: It's Over
As the Supreme Court prepares to declare individual spending mandates unconstitutional, the Republicans prepare to endorse the leading proponent of individual spending mandates.
Good grief. Who will save the Republic now?
Nine unelected government officials, it appears.
Edited on April 4, 2012 at 4:11pm