It's Not a Conspiracy
Perhaps an anecdote will help to explain why the imminent Eurozone collapse isn't really in the news. In 2005, when I was working on this book, I sent this e-mail to my editor:
Guess what I saw on the streets of Palermo? A real, honest-to-God street brawl between Italian fascists and Italian communists. The fascists were out demonstrating, complete with one-fist power salutes; the communists were counter-demonstrating and singing revolutionary anthems, and the police were there in riot gear keeping them apart. When David tried to get a photograph, the cops told him to put the camera away. Why, he asked? "Because you're a tourist," they said. "You should be taking pictures of all the pretty palazzos." My brother (whose Italian is excellent) interjected: "You must be joking. What kind of banana republic do you think Italy is? He's a photojournalist. You have freedom of the press here. He has every right to take pictures." Then -- I kid you not -- the policeman said, sheepishly, "Oh, yeah," and hung his head. Even more surreal, there was a huge Sicilian wedding taking place directly beside the riot -- white dresses, doves, rice, the works. The wedding party and the rioters mutually ignored each other.
I also found, in a Sicilian market, a traditional Russian matryoshka doll -- you know the kind, with figurines nestled inside each other? -- featuring the faces of Osama bin Laden, Saddam Hussein, Yasser Arafat, the Ayatollah Khomenei and a fifth guy whose identity we're not sure about but whom we suspect would not be permitted to board any US carrier. Knowing I would never again see so superb a piece of kitsch I bought it, then realized after taking it back through customs that had my bag been inspected, the irony might have been lost on the inspectors. Glad they didn't see that. (I don't think the doll was meant to be appreciated ironically, though; the same street vendor was selling swastika pins and SS paraphernalia.) It would be a wonderful display item to bring to book signings, but I wouldn't have the nerve to fly with it again.
I subsequently had a disagreement with my publishers about the title of the book. I suggested titles like these:
DON'T BET ON EUROPEAN BROTHERHOOD
WHY I DON'T HAVE MY MONEY IN EURO-DENOMINATED T-BILLS: A JOURNEY THROUGH THE FECKLESS CONTINENT
CONTINENTAL DRIFT
EUROPE IN THE SNAKECHARMER'S GAZE
THE GREAT TRANCE
THE SHORT STORY OF UNITED EUROPE
UNITED EUROPE: A SHORT STORY
The sales force hated all of those titles. They rejected them one by one. The book had to feature the words "Why the Continent's Crisis is America's, Too," on the cover, they told me. Otherwise no one would ever buy it.
I was dumbfounded: Were they seriously telling me that Americans couldn't see why stories like those might be a problem for them?
Apparently, they were.
It's not a conspiracy. It's not even a supply problem. It's a demand problem.
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Sep '10
Re: It's Not a Conspiracy
CNBC, Bloomberg and the financial press is saturated with coverage. This at the present time is a financial story and as you pointed out there is not a great demand for financial stories. Nor I might add much knowledge or interest among non-financial journalist.
Apr '11
Re: It's Not a Conspiracy
Ah, Palermo - sitting in the Piazza Vigliena. Eating some cuchidahti or a slice of cassata while sipping on an espresso and admiring my newly purchased swastika pin! What can be more picturesque?
As a native Italian, with many family members still there, believe me when I tell you that none of them act as if something is wrong. Modern Italians (and by extent, most western Europeans I assume) live the Mark Steyn adage in his latest book that modern folks think that the pst WW2 peace & prosperity is perpetual. They are all in for a very rude and unexpected awakening.
Mar '11
Re: It's Not a Conspiracy
I'm starting to think that the Old World is just to silly to bother trying to save anymore. The Greek tax collectors are going out on strike because they aren't getting enough money -- the money that they won't be collecting, due to the strike that they'll be on.
How do you say "positive feedback loop" in Greek?
Apr '11
Re: It's Not a Conspiracy
Don't You Bring Me No Bad News..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cB9nm-Vjv-4
It is a demand problem, people don't want to hear bad news. Illusions are much more fun and far less demanding.
Re: It's Not a Conspiracy
The United States is a deeply isolationist country. Yes, the bankers and the titans of business on the two coasts are acutely sensitive to developments in the larger world. But most of us lead lives distant from these realities. Europe is a place far away about which we know little or nothing.
World War II shook us out of our sense of isolation. We managed to sustain interest in the larger world throughout the Cold War period -- despite George McGovern's call "Come Home, America." But the end of the Cold War fostered the illusion that we could relax and that all would go well. We are in, I fear, for another rude awakening. And our cousins in Europe, who have drifted into a species of isolationism all their own, are likely to face an even ruder awakening.
Nov '10
Re: It's Not a Conspiracy
I want to make again the point that I tried to in "Remembering the 1991 Coup", which you posted earlier, Ma'am.
When you write about things like this, things that you have experienced, the words and the whole piece come together in a way that absolutely shines. I encourage you to emulate Patrick Lee Fermor and write primarily about those experiences of your life that make the rest of us, maybe, as in my case, far more sedentary and far less adventurous, wish that we had been a bit more like you in both respects. They are an invitation to participate in your remarkable life, from, of course, a discreet distance.
Re: It's Not a Conspiracy
Paul, I agree completely. Anyone with any sense of history knows just how rude this awakening is apt to be. Is there anything that can be done?
Does anyone in America right now grasp just how many pillars of the postwar international order are crumbling right now? Am I the only American who can't sleep at night?
Edited on Sep 29, 2011 at 6:37amOct '10
Re: It's Not a Conspiracy
I thought the subtitle was a little heavy-handed. Now I know why. :-)
I wouldn't have thought that the message needed to be that explicit either, but when I consider all the cant I hear about how America needs to do X about its economy, or America needs to do Y, all I can think is: oh my goodness. These buffoons have no idea that we're in a global sovereign debt crisis. About the international financial markets. It's all "we have the world's reserve currency this" and "The 10-year yield is still low" that and even, literally, "We can print money whenever we want."
I don't know what's more frightening: the lack of the international perspective or the perversion of Keynesianism that would horrify John Maynard himself.
Re: It's Not a Conspiracy
Claire Berlinski, Ed.
Paul, I agree completely. Anyone with any sense of history knows just how rude this awakening is apt to be. Is there anything that can be done?
Does anyone in America right now grasp just how many pillars of the postwar international order are crumbling right now? Am I the only American who can't sleep at night? · Sep 29 at 6:36am
Edited on Sep 29 at 06:37 am
You are not the only such American. I am one as well. But we are few in number -- not just in the US but in Europe as well. It is as if we are sleepwalking, and it is not as if we have not done this before. In all sorts of ways, our time looks like the 1930s.
May '11
Re: It's Not a Conspiracy
Talked about Europe in the coffee shop. Here is the predominant view:
Who cares about Europe. They've been living off us since WWII. If they had to pay for their own protection...
So Europe collapses. Will I have to give up champagne and escargot for dinner every night? Will I no longer be able to get $600 Italian shoes? How does this effect me?
We have enough of our own problems to spend time worrying about a bunch of commie / socialist / snooty foreigners.
They got themselves into this mess...It's their problem.
When they started this Euro thing, it was just to be more like the USA. They wanted to be more homogenized and more powerful. They don't have the culture for it. Of course it's going to fail.
Dr. Rahe is right. America IS isolationist. The people at the coffee shop would ask, "So what?"
Edited on Sep 29, 2011 at 7:37amMay '10
Re: It's Not a Conspiracy
It's in our DNA. From the moment we were taught General Washington's farewell address and the dangers of "entangling alliances" we have been an inward-looking people. We were late to both World Wars and interventionist ventures in Korea (stand-off) and Viet Nam (loss) didn't do much for America's sense of international awareness. And a whole generation was indoctrinated about the multinational organizations that the liberals told us would prevent war and promote freedom. (Think about the twin fantasies of the '60s: U.N.C.L.E. and the United Federation of Planets! America is not the answer!)
Aug '10
Re: It's Not a Conspiracy
Not far from the beautiful place where Mussolini set up shop after being chased from Rome is the home (now museum/park ) of Gabriele d'Annunzio . Driving by one day , fascinated by the billy clubs emblazoned with pictures of Il Duce in the stands around the entrance to the park. Wine bottles, purses, t-shirts, the usual kitsch but with a Mussolini grimace.
d'Annunzio was a big influence on Benito, but couldn't talk him out of throwing in with Adolf.
Too intriguing to pass up, we joined a small group in a tour that wound through the place, accompanied by a narrative in Italian, neither of us understood much. The stares of the other tourists ,as these two Americans expressed curiousity in d'Annunzio, were palpably scorn-filled.
I can only hope it was the bitterness of the vanquished. By the way, the design of the villa and the furniture inside were those of d'Annunzio. If you can imagine pompous style with so-so materials, you'd get the feeling of the place.
Sad that such beauty is stained indelibly with blood. The stains are there for all to see.
Edited on Sep 29, 2011 at 7:58amMay '10
Re: It's Not a Conspiracy
Clair and Paul: What, in an ideal America, would the people be doing, and what would they be asking the Government to spend their tax dollars on abroad?
For my part,:
1. I would stop Iran getting the bomb, no matter how hard ( I know there are not "good" answers, but don't tell me we "can't" do anything).
2. I would give no more money to any nation that represses is population (Good bye Egypt and the PA).
3. I would tell pirates that any attack on a US Flagged ship would mean destroyed coasts within 48 hours.
4. I would pour money into making a mighty military to back it up.The Atlantic and Pacific ocean's are ours.
5. I would restart nuke testing. SDI would be full steam ahead.
6. Any nation currently holding US Citizens hostage for any reason would be given 73 hours to release them, before they found their nation's bridges being wiped out.
In short, I would be ready to demonstrate to the world that while all nations may be sovereign, some are more sovereign than others.
I am not sure the Republic would support such an imperial foreign policy.
Apr '11
Re: It's Not a Conspiracy
Social democracy, Keynesianism, the European project, statism, progressivism, multiculturalism
"five conditions must be present, if someone is to become a more fervent believer after a failure or disconfirmation:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/When_Prophecy_Fails
Mar '11
Re: It's Not a Conspiracy
Claire Berlinski, Ed.
Does anyone in America right now grasp just how many pillars of the postwar international order are crumbling right now? Am I the only American who can't sleep at night? · Sep 29 at 6:36am
Edited on Sep 29 at 06:37 am
Quite a few people grasp it.
I make jokes about it, but I'm whistling past the graveyard. Anyone with any knowledge of history can see that these are very dark times. Our President is following a path the Europeans have been following for decades, but with typical American efficiency and ingenuity we are closing the gap -- way too fast.
Apr '11
Re: It's Not a Conspiracy
1. Finance ministry: A house of worship where government leaders go to pray for bailouts
2. Coordinated: Chaotic, unfocused, brain-dead, paralyzed
3. Firewall: Of no use in containing a financial crisis, except as vague public- relations catnip
4. Contagion: A financially transmitted psychiatric condition, marked by intense fear of losing everything.
5. Peripheral country: A core, indispensable member of the European Union. Related word: Sovereign, meaning German
6. Stability mechanism: advertised as a cure-all device for comatose economies.
7. Controlled default: The act of telling another country’s government that it’s OK to stiff most creditors, then watching with fascination to see if the global banking system falls apart
8. Recapitalize: To transfer money from a country’s taxpayers to an insolvent bank --a bribe to bondholders and senior management -- a way of ensuring that the wealthy don’t rise up and oust the government.
9. SPIV: type of petty criminal who deals in stolen goods, also Special Purpose Investment Vehicle, proposed solution to the Eurocrisis where some remaining cash and credit will be leveraged eight times into a new entity for bailouts. Widely used by Enron in it's day.
h/t Bloomberg's Jon Weil
Nov '10
Re: It's Not a Conspiracy
I share the views of my brother Stephens in this all of this, although I should add (a) quitting the UN and ending our monetary contributions to it and sending its headquarters off our shores and (b) terminating our participation in NATO.
But, where will the money come from?
Re: It's Not a Conspiracy
Bryan G. Stephens:
For my part,:
1. I would stop Iran getting the bomb, no matter how hard ( I know there are not "good" answers, but don't tell me we "can't" do anything).
2. I would give no more money to any nation that represses is population (Good bye Egypt and the PA).
3. I would tell pirates that any attack on a US Flagged ship would mean destroyed coasts within 48 hours.
4. I would pour money into making a mighty military to back it up.The Atlantic and Pacific ocean's are ours.
5. I would restart nuke testing. SDI would be full steam ahead.
6. Any nation currently holding US Citizens hostage for any reason would be given 73 hours to release them, before they found their nation's bridges being wiped out.
In short, I would be ready to demonstrate to the world that while all nations may be sovereign, some are more sovereign than others.
I am not sure the Republic would support such an imperial foreign policy. · Sep 29 at 8:25am
I am almost entirely with you.
Dec '10
Re: It's Not a Conspiracy
Paul A. Rahe:
...the end of the Cold War... the illusion that we could relax and that all would go well. We are in.. for another rude awakening.
Do you think differences between now and the Cold War are during the CW the issues were big, stark, easy to frame and understand, and, now the complexities of the EU and the Euro almost defy analysis? Personally, I have an interest in the markets and have occasionally traded currencies, so, spent some time trying to understand what Greece did with bonds, how the EU banks will be affected and what can be done with the Euro to accommodate the extremes of Greece and Germany. You eventually reach a wtf moment and all you can be certain of it's going to be really bad and try to find ways to protect assets.
The very smart people at Goldman Sachs surely have theories and scenarios about what will happen and are hedged in every direction. But the rest of us are going to take the blast of this square in the face. Keynsian policies have rushed past the danger zone and pushed to the top of the lethal zone.
Dec '10
Re: It's Not a Conspiracy
Without the folklore of an Italian wedding, similar events happened way back when in Paris. My school (Sciences Po, rue St. Guillaume, an incubator for ENA—in turn, the mother hen of French Colbertist dirigism) was holding its annual student body elections. For some reason, it became a tradition for radical students from other schools to show up and attempt to disrupt voting and intimidate voters (at that same time, Socialist and Communist Party candidates were running in the presidential election—the Socialist, Mitterrand, won).
While not having the “look” of a future French ministerial chief-of-staff, my demeanor was distinguishable enough from the radicals that I was able to emerge from their group’s sidewalk, cross solitarily and unscathed the demilitarized zone—a narrow street in a bourgeois neighborhood—towards the shield wielding CRS riot police who preceded just as nonchalantly to split a slight hole in their phalanx allowing me to pass through it and not be late for class.
This is what centuries of class warfare but with a shared common culture and no real misery will get you: Bandanna brandishing street theatrics to no purpose. Now, street protests turn violent as all of Europe “unifies.”