It's Not Too Late to Protect Istanbul
It's been a long day; I've been away from the Internet a lot, and I've only just now had a chance to look at the photos from Japan. I knew it had to be awful, very awful, but the photos are beyond belief.
Japan is as well built to withstand a quake as a country can be--and yet, look. That is what an earthquake can do.
Turkey isn't well built at all.
We know exactly what will happen to Istanbul. We know it, in fact, pretty much to the block and to the building. Hundreds of thousands of people will be killed outright when their buildings collapse. About 30,000 natural gas lines will rupture. Even if only 10 percent catch fire—a conservative estimate, given the human instinct to smoke under stress—there will be 3,000 fires. The city’s fire stations are able to handle at most 30 to 40 fires in a day.
In 1509, an earthquake killed between five and ten percent of the city’s population. The Ottomans called it Kıyamet-i Suğra, the Minor Judgment Day, the end of the world. The population was much less dense back then and living in low wooden buildings, not shoddy concrete apartment blocks. If a similar proportion of the city’s residents were killed today, a million and half would die.
Since then, Istanbul has suffered serious quake damage 11 times, most recently at the end of the 19th century. In 1939, a series of seven quakes in Turkey began, each of a magnitude exceeding 7 on the Richter scale, all on the Anatolian fault line. Each time a major rupture occurs on the fault, it transfers stress further along the line, making a subsequent earthquake more likely. The quakes are marching westward from eastern Turkey, directly toward Istanbul.
Istanbul's my home. It feels like the center of the world. I've been away from it for only twelve hours now and I'm already homesick. It breaks my heart to see these photos of Japan. It terrifies me for Istanbul.
It isn't too late for Turkey to launch something like a Manhattan Project to save the city, to put all of the immense talent and energy Turkey possesses toward doing everything humankind knows how to do to reduce the destruction when it comes. It could still be done. It would take absolute resolution, cooperation among the major parties, a willingness to make this the nation's foremost priority, but it could be done.
Why does any politician in Turkey talk about anything but this? Why can't they grasp how serious this is?
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Comments :
Nov '10
Re: It's Not Too Late to Protect Istanbul
Might the horrific visual depictions of the Japanese earthquake today rouse them from their indifference?
Jan '11
Re: It's Not Too Late to Protect Istanbul
However, you acknowledged the objection to your own suggestion: "Japan is as well built to withstand a quake as a country can be--and yet, look. That is what an earthquake can do."
There's only so much you can do to protect the city. A disaster on the scale of Japan's tsunami can't be withstood anyway. Like any public safety calculation, you have to guess what you can save and what you can't.
Feb '11
Re: It's Not Too Late to Protect Istanbul
"A disaster on the scale of Japan's tsunami can't be withstood anyway"...there are huge differences in magnitude depending on quality of construction, safety features in gas lines, etc. An earthquake that kills 1000 people is still a tragedy but an earthquake that kills 20000 is much worse.
I think the problem with the "Manhattan Project" approach is that this is a Black Swan situation, and politicians, like private individuals, have difficulty in focusing on black swan events. If the probability of a devastating earthquake is 2% per year, and a politician expects to be in office for 5 years, then the chance of such an event occurring on his watch is "only" about 10%. So there is a 90% chance he will spend a zillion $$$$ on earthquake preparedness and it will *appear* to have been wasted during his term in office. This is very similar to bankers who discounted the risk of a black swan event affecting their mortgage portfolio.
Jul '10
Re: It's Not Too Late to Protect Istanbul
A few words about the photos: despite tsunami damage, Japan's earthquake resistant building codes are some of the safest and mostly widely followed in the world, and Turkey certainly could learn a lot from them. On a personal note, the crowded bus station was the station I used to go to work every day. It was packed on good days, I can only imagine the confusion now.
That said, funding earthquake resistance of a large city is a very, very expensive undertaking. Tokyo's high property values are not due solely to lack of space; the cost of building modern, earthquake resistant buildings is extremely high. Another misconception is that Tokyo has few very tall buildings because earthquakes make such tall structures impossible. Again, while the technology exists to build skyscrapers in excess of 300m fully earthquake resistant, it is price prohibitive, even in a wealthy country like Japan.
So then a question remains, Claire: can Turkey actually afford, in monetary terms, the incredibly massive amount of money that would have to be spent by both the public and private sectors to update the city's buildings to some degree of earthquake resistance?
May '10
Re: It's Not Too Late to Protect Istanbul
Claire Berlinski, Ed.: It could still be done. It would take absolute resolution, cooperation among the major parties, a willingness to make this the nation's foremost priority, but it could be done.
Why does any politician in Turkey talk about anything but this? Why can't they grasp how serious this is? ·
Claire I think you have answered your own question. The qualities you list are not common in political officeholders in Turkey or anywhere. And there is enough uncertainty in timing with earthquakes for officials to decide that it is not their responsibility to take on the expense and political risk. Humans are lousy at responding to a threat measured in decades.
On the other hand, I would expect that many of these government officials are sufficiently concerned to be sure to have their money in secure accounts overseas, and have escape plans in place for themselves and their families.
Jul '10
Re: It's Not Too Late to Protect Istanbul
Insha'Allah.
Edited on Mar 11, 2011 at 3:29pmJul '10
Re: It's Not Too Late to Protect Istanbul
G.A. Dean
Humans are lousy at responding to a threat measured in decades.
· Mar 11 at 2:20pm
Ever hear of "global warming" and the efforts to be prepared for it or prevent it?
Jan '11
Re: It's Not Too Late to Protect Istanbul
Here in the USA, our politicians are looking at a 1.5 trillion budget and squabbling over whether cuts should be undetectable (6 billion) or merely trivial (61 billion). Why can't they grasp how serious this is?
I doubt that Turkish politicians are so superior to ours that they can react adequately to an unpredictable, unmeasurable danger.
Dec '10
Re: It's Not Too Late to Protect Istanbul
Jimmy Carter
G.A. Dean
Humans are lousy at responding to a threat measured in decades.
· Mar 11 at 2:20pm
Ever hear of "global warming" and the efforts to be prepared for it or prevent it? · Mar 11 at 3:22pm
Thank you. About the only bit of humor possible in this grim context. Or, another one:
A global-warmist asks the Anthropogenic Tectonic Shifting denier:
“Why don’t you believe in man-made earthquakes?”
“Can’t be taxed. If it could, I would.”
Re: It's Not Too Late to Protect Istanbul
Humza Ahmad: A few words about the photos: despite tsunami damage, Japan's earthquake resistant building codes are some of the safest and mostly widely followed in the world, and Turkey certainly could learn a lot from them. On a personal note, the crowded bus station was the station I used to go to work every day. It was packed on good days, I can only imagine the confusion now.
That said, funding earthquake resistance of a large city is a very, very expensive undertaking. Tokyo's high property values are not due solely to lack of space; the cost of building modern, earthquake resistant buildings is extremely high. Another misconception is that Tokyo has few very tall buildings because earthquakes make such tall structures impossible. Again, while the technology exists to build skyscrapers in excess of 300m fully earthquake resistant, it is price prohibitive, even in a wealthy country like Japan.
Humza, are you in Japan now? Reporting from you on the effects would be of great interest to me and I'm sure to all of Ricochet.
Nov '10
Re: It's Not Too Late to Protect Istanbul
Humza Ahmad:
So then a question remains, Claire: can Turkey actually afford, in monetary terms, the incredibly massive amount of money that would have to be spent by both the public and private sectors to update the city's buildings to some degree of earthquake resistance? · Mar 11 at 2:16p
Can they afford not to? Which is greater: the cost of quake-proofing itself, or the probability of the quake times the cost of the likely damage? The probability of the quake increases the longer the time frame; but the cost of preemptive repairs also decreases when spread out over that time frame. One could at least make all new buildings conform to stricter codes.
Aug '10
Re: It's Not Too Late to Protect Istanbul
Americans would be wiser to concern themselves with the New Madrid fault that runs though the intersection of Kentucky, Tennessee, and Arkansas.
Jul '10
Re: It's Not Too Late to Protect Istanbul
No, I've been back home on Long Island for the last few months. Honestly, I feel helpless knowing there are loved ones in Tokyo and other parts of Japan that I can't be with to offer support to right now. I'm considering organizing a mission of doctors to the affected area through Humanity First, which I have been involved with on a local level, though I don't know how welcoming the Japanese government will be to volunteers not from well-known organizations. My feeling is that Japan needs boots on the ground more than money, and I want to do my best to provide just that.