It's A Whole Newt World
A new Rasmussen poll shows that Newt Gingrich has taken a decisive lead in Florida now, too. He's at 41 percent to Mitt Romney's 32 percent. Looks like we're going to have fun in Florida.
Less than two weeks ago, Mitt Romney had a 22-point lead in Florida, but that’s ancient history in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. Following his big win in South Carolina on Saturday, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich now is on top in Florida by nine.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Republican Primary Voters, taken Sunday evening, finds Gingrich earning 41% of the vote with Romney in second at 32%. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum runs third with 11%, while Texas Congressman Ron Paul attracts support from eight percent (8%). Nine percent (9%) remain undecided.(To see survey question wording, click here).
I'd like to repeat my call from Saturday night that the results of South Carolina's primary should be a wake-up call to the media elites (and I'm including conservative media here). Perhaps if they'd spent more time listening about voter concerns regarding Romney's candidacy, we wouldn't be in this situation!
My own view is that if Romney responds well to his first real difficulty as a candidate, he'll come out of this fine. The worry among Republican voters has always been that he's not up to the task. Ability to beat Newt Gingrich seems like a perfectly reasonable test on the path to the Republican nomination, no?
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Oct '10
Re: It's A Whole Newt World
Indeed. A full-throated celebration of capitalism and wealth - surely more real as an American dream than community organising - and a clear description of how the tax system works - or fails to - and it's in the bag!
Edited on Jan 23 at 6:30amSep '10
Re: It's A Whole Newt World
I agree with commentators that Newt captured the zeitgeist with one line during the debates:
"Only the elites despise earning money."
You could spend an entire podcast dissecting just that one line. For all Newt's flaws -- and I'm under no illusion as to how many he has -- he reminds me of a horse with the bit firmly between his teeth. He knows he's hit a home run and he's starting to hit second base. And watching him on the stump, he's clearly been using his media appearances these many years as a way of doing what Reagan and Huckabee have done successfully -- mastering the art of talking to people in language that resonates with them. Its something he confirmed himself when he said (paraphrased because I don't have the direct quote):
"I'm not winning these debates because I'm a great debater; I'm winning because I say what people are thinking."
Steyn's miffed because he can see through Newt as filled with more guile than Reagan, but as Paul Rahe says "beggars can't be choosers" and right now Newt's performance beggars belief.
Jun '10
Re: It's A Whole Newt World
My concern is that Newt might be the anti-Obama, even as he exhibits all of the same personal vices. Both men are arrogant, egocentric, self-absorbed, with plenty of baggage, and lots of "big ideas." If character is destiny then we are most certainly doomed. God save the republic!
Re: It's A Whole Newt World
I just remembered how effectively Romney attacked Newt in Iowa. Here's the question: does he just need to pull out all the stops and blister Newt with more attacks? Or is the effectiveness of that strategy waning? I suspect it is waning and he needs to try something very different.
Mostly what he needs to do is tell voters why they should vote for him apart from his (not so apparent) electability. That just never was sufficient reason and if he doesn't come up with something else quick, it could be very bad for him.
Sep '10
Re: It's A Whole Newt World
Mollie Hemingway, Ed.: Or is the effectiveness of that strategy waning? I suspect it is waning and he needs to try something very different.
Mostly what he needs to do is tell voters why they should vote for him apart from his (not so apparent) electability. That just never was sufficient reason and if he doesn't come up with something else quick, it could be very bad for him. · 0 minutes ago
I hate to overuse the boxing analogies, but when your opponent is circling you, you move laterally to cut off the ring (which is simple geometry). What you don't do is follow him around the ring or you just end up lunging and off balance while you eat leather in the form of counter punches. I made the comment quite awhile ago that if Newt survived the dump truck of bad news they dumped on him then the attacks would get old in a hurry.
It already has. Like a stock market price, the electorate has factored all that in. Romney now has to transcend Newt to take the initiative. Steyn's latest column on Romney doesn't give one much hope for that.
Sep '10
Re: It's A Whole Newt World
Who cares what Mitt has to say? We've found a candidate who has been tested in the fire and come out fine. He'll take the fight to the enemy. According to the recent polls, whatever his negatives might be, he's as electable as anyone.
I would argue that Mitt's lead was built on people finally resigning themselves to voting for him, dragging their feet along the way, hoping someone else would arise. Now that Newt has shown his mettle, people are dropping Mr. Inevitable and heading for Mr. Fun.
Mitt can say anything he wants now, He can carpet bomb Florida with attack ads morning, noon and night. He can hold rallies with nanosecond-perfect timing. He can have his bus washed and the sound system tweaked until it's perfect. Who cares?
Nov '11
Re: It's A Whole Newt World
Sounds like that may be right. Among the media elites who should be getting a wakeup call, perhaps the ones advising Romney should be included. Here in Florida the negative RomneyPac ads attacking Gingrich have been running for weeks, and they are now wall-to-wall. Whether it’s causality or concomitance— Gingrich is soaring. Could it be that as people take more of a shine to Newt the negative ads become de-fanged or even counter-productive, being perceived as nasty and unfair?
Jun '10
Re: It's A Whole Newt World
Mollie Hemingway, Ed.: I just remembered how effectively Romney attacked Newt in Iowa. Here's the question: does he just need to pull out all the stops and blister Newt with more attacks? Or is the effectiveness of that strategy waning? I suspect it is waning and he needs to try something very different.
[...]
"Make my day."
Aug '11
Re: It's A Whole Newt World
If Newt has as much "baggage" as his detractors say, he should be easy to beat, right? The fact that Mitt is having extreme difficulty suggests that a) this "baggage" thing is overblown, and b) nobody cares about the "baggage" whatever it is.
Take a look at the demographics here.
Newt won with Women, Men, Republicans, Independents, Conservatives, over 30s, Evangelicals, Tea Party supporters, All income brackets, protestants, Catholics, married, not-married, College educated and not college educated.
Re: It's A Whole Newt World
I am not surprised at all by the shift in Florida. If Gingrich wins decisively there -- as well he might -- he will have a real shot: lack of money and organization, notwithstanding. Romney will do well in the West. To defeat Gingrich, however, he will have to win the heartland in the Midwest.
It is time for him to throw away his script and show us what he is made of. Methodical planning is not as effective in politics as it is in business.
Jan '11
Re: It's A Whole Newt World
Has anybody noticed that when people write about Mitt Romney, they usually call him "Romney," whereas Newt Gingrich is "Newt?"
Sep '10
Re: It's A Whole Newt World
Methodical planning is not as effective in politics as it is in business.
Methodical planning doesn't work in business when you're running a start up and right now Newt is now playing Steve Jobs to Mitt's Roger Smith. The Tea Party's a start up and Newt knows it.
Sep '10
Re: It's A Whole Newt World
Just try typing Newt Nominee and saying it 3 times quickly and you'll need a cup of coffee to straighten out.
Nov '11
Re: It's A Whole Newt World
You have a point, but aside from the fact that anyone running for this office needs to possess some sense of his own superiority for the job and of his possible place in history, one thing that Newt will never have is the subservience of the press nor, I think, of his supporters, which I count as a very good thing.
Nov '10
Re: It's A Whole Newt World
I want anewt to win the nomination for one reason: I want to see him debate Obama. Now that would be worth paying to see.
Sep '10
Re: It's A Whole Newt World
Pseudodionysius: Methodical planning is not as effective in politics as it is in business.
Methodical planning doesn't work in business when you're running a start up and right now Newt is now playing Steve Jobs to Mitt's Roger Smith. The Tea Party's a start up and Newt knows it. · 1 minute ago
And Jobs -- as everyone knows -- was fired once by his own board.
Sep '10
Re: It's A Whole Newt World
How is it that little old me, pecking away in my pajamas, called this and the elites are so clueless?
Here is what I wrote befor the first vote was cast in SC:
They will never get it right because they honestly believe they know better, they don't respect ordinary voters - they see them in categories, in demographics, and believe they are easliy swayed by advertisements. They will never make sense of us. They think forests, but don't think trees.
Edited on Jan 23 at 8:00amJul '10
Re: It's A Whole Newt World
Mollie Hemingway, Ed.: I just remembered how effectively Romney attacked Newt in Iowa. Here's the question: does he just need to pull out all the stops and blister Newt with more attacks? Or is the effectiveness of that strategy waning? I suspect it is waning and he needs to try something very different.
...
Romney needs to defend his career with passion and authority rather than petulance and defensiveness. He needs to occasionally emit a coherent paragraph or so on why markets operate so much better than command and control arrangements, such as crony capitalism. He needs to refute his own RomneyCare fiasco as the unmitigated rookie failure it is and discuss the corrosive effect of government on the delivery of goods and services.
If he were capable of any of this, it would have happened already. He is steamed that he has deigned to stand for office and save us all and we are ungrateful. And worse, undeserving.
I agree that America is undeserving of a Romney presidency as well, just as we are undeserving of this Obama regime. From the department of just desserts: Romney is about to get his head handed to him yet again by Florida.
Aug '11
Re: It's A Whole Newt World
"...Perhaps if they'd spent more time listening about voter concerns regarding Romney's candidacy, we wouldn't be in this situation!"
Mollie, you couldn't be more right on this one. The problem is that it's not just that the elite's aren't listening about the candidate...it's that they're not listening to the voters about anything! Thus...the Tea Party emerges. As in 2008, I'm "just not feeling it" regarding our party candidate. I'd probably vote for whoever wins the nomination but if it's someone out of the pack that remains today, it will be with a heavy heart.
I like Newt's spunk and have been waiting for someone to fight back. Newt's saying things that most of us have been wanting to say for a long time. It's refreshing, but we need more than spunk. We need someone who can win the White House back. Maybe it's Newt or maybe it's someone else. But we better get our house in order now or we will fail. Can we afford another four years of Obama?
Edited on Jan 23 at 7:28amJul '10
Re: It's A Whole Newt World
Pseudodionysius
Pseudodionysius: Methodical planning is not as effective in politics as it is in business.
Methodical planning doesn't work in business when you're running a start up and right now Newt is now playing Steve Jobs to Mitt's Roger Smith. The Tea Party's a start up and Newt knows it. · 1 minute ago
And Jobs -- as everyone knows -- was fired once by his own board.
With cause. But in doing so they initiated a period of slow but certain decline until they restored the natural order to their universe.