It Wasn't Demographics
Demographics did not determine last night's outcome. Old fashioned political organizing (or lack thereof) did. Republicans have only themselves to blame for last night's loss.
The sleeper story of last night's loss is that Mitt Romney won the middle but lost conservatives. Republicans failed to turn out their own. I don't feel that the Romney camp necessarily pursued the wrong message or the wrong strategy. But it seems that they did not attend to the nuts and bolts of the ground game.
I asked a statistics guru why Romney lost last night. He says that the simplest answer is turnout. It appears that Romney had 2.5 million votes less than John McCain in 2008. If Romney had simply replicated McCain's turnout of 59 million, he may have won Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado, where he lost by about 100,000 votes. Romney even won independents by 4 points, where McCain lost them by 8. Obama's turnout dropped 10 million votes from 2008. If Romney had modestly improved on McCain's performance four years ago, he would have won the popular vote. Instead, it looks like Obama will win with about 60 million.
Republicans should have been more energized this cycle than four year ago, as the polls and anecdotal stories seemed to suggest. Hard as it is to believe, McCain (perhaps it was Sarah Palin?) did a better job bringing out Republican voters than Romney. It seems that the measures of voter intensity were either mistaken or are just no longer reliable predictors of turnout. As a result, one of the primary tasks for Republican party leaders for the next four years is rebuild the ground game that served George W. Bush so well in 2000 and 2004.
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Comments:
Apr '11
Re: It Wasn't Demographics
Virtually every source I have seen says that the GOTV effort was unprecendented. Karl Rove, the architect of the 2004 ground game, says the same thing.
Mar '11
Re: It Wasn't Demographics
You're whistling past the graveyard, John. Demographics was the single greatest factor last night, and not just racial: fewer committed Christians, fewer traditional families, more single women that see Barack Obama as some kind of meta-mate. Mark Steyn was right all along. Demographics = Democrats.
Jul '12
Re: It Wasn't Demographics
You were right wmartin. I apologize.
Apr '11
Re: It Wasn't Demographics
Numbers don't lie. If the GOTV effort was so good, why did it fail? Something does not add up. Someone needs to survey these non-voters and find out why they didn't vote.
Jun '12
Re: It Wasn't Demographics
If this is true, it defies explanation. Conservatives had lower turnout than '08? That is really sickening if so. What about the 8 million Evangelicals who suposedly sat out '08 but were going to be in for this one.
Apr '12
Re: It Wasn't Demographics
It is demographics, The non white , non male part of the pie is expanding.
Apr '11
Re: It Wasn't Demographics
This cannot be true. Dem voters were down 10 million.
Jul '12
Re: It Wasn't Demographics
Good point Mr. Yoo. Most of the post mortem articles this morning are focusing on the "demographic crisis" for the Republican party. While I agree that we need to do better with Latinos and the young, we simply didn't GOTV very well.
It's very hard to believe that Romney got less votes than McCain. Obama '12 barely beats McCain '08 totals. I'm really shocked.
Sep '12
Re: It Wasn't Demographics
Well, not to state the obvious but it's both. The demographics are obviously changing--no disputing that. But the Democrats GOTV was phenomenal. Democrats have been faster to innovate in this regard and it paid big dividends.
Aug '10
Re: It Wasn't Demographics
GOTV isn't just technology. It takes boots on the ground.
The Republicans can design the best, most sophisticated, most innovative GOTV strategy they like, it'll still count for little if the Democrats have a larger number of energetic volunteers to make the phone calls and knock on the doors.
Dec '10
Re: It Wasn't Demographics
I hate to bring this up, but do we think some evangelicals stayed home due to Romney's religion?
Mar '11
Re: It Wasn't Demographics
NormD
This cannot be true. Dem voters were down 10 million. · 10 minutes ago
The balance of voters are Democrats in practice. Come on. Obama won in a landslide with a message of more taxes, more government, and with an anti-tradition sentiment. Voters loved him for it.
Nov '11
Re: It Wasn't Demographics
Romney was our leader. He asked for the job. He was in charge, the CEO of the campaign. He said he knew how to manage things. He said he knew how to get people working, If you are right, it means the "jobs" guy didn't get the job done.
Edited to add: But I really don't think the problem was Romney's failure to organize the troops. I think the jobs guy did a decent job with the campaign. I think the problem was that there just weren't enough troops on our side to organize. In other words, yes, it was a demographic problem--less so with women than with Hispanics--but a demographic problem nonetheless.
Edited on November 7, 2012 at 11:06pmMar '11
Re: It Wasn't Demographics
Not really. Again, demographics. Fewer evangelicals relative to the population.
Jan '11
Re: It Wasn't Demographics
Well, it's not as if GOTV has nothing to do with demographics. They're very much related.
The Democrat GOTV is very much focused on demographics, and getting turnout from their profiled base.
Dec '10
Re: It Wasn't Demographics
I simply can not believe that conservatives and Republicans didn't vote this time. When have we ever been this motivated? I almost didn't vote for McCain in 2008. This year I made my first campaign contribution.
Granted, that's just me, but I was under the impression that the base was exceptionally motivated. Have we all had our heads buried in the sand, or what?
I just can't believe that we lost because of a GOTV fail.
Dec '11
Re: It Wasn't Demographics
NormD
Numbers don't lie. If the GOTV effort was so good, why did it fail? Something does not add up. Someone needs to survey these non-voters and find out why they didn't vote. · 21 minutes ago
NormD, this is exactly the right point. We need to find out who did not vote from 2008 and why they did not vote. I've seen nothing but theories (including this thread) and a whole bunch of finger-pointing and with very little true data other than we were down 2.5 Million votes from 2008. That fact has been brought up here and a number of different posts. "Who" & "Why" have not been answered.
Jun '12
Re: It Wasn't Demographics
I have not met one person who thought Romney could not create more jobs. Romney did a good job portraying himself as a good CEO. They just don't think he is as caring as Obama. They truly believe Obama has more of their interests at heart than Romney. James of England commented on this, Romney never recovered from the Bain smear advertisement. More voted for Obama because more want the socialist agenda. All of my liberal friends admire the scandinavian countries, they truly believe we can be like Sweden. Trendy, attractive, free for all. And the terrorists will leave them alone.
Edited on November 7, 2012 at 7:41pmNov '10
Re: It Wasn't Demographics
With all respect, Mr. Woo, this analysis is probably correct in the main but misses the point, from my perspective. The Romney campaign opted for a concilliatory stance on many things, and this won the center, as you say. There is nothing wrong with this; it's a brilliant political tactic when executed well and not at the expense of one's own base. You could see Obama panicking after the debates when Romney had effectively owned the centrist position. That's what his "two Romneys" speech was all about -- to try to re-position Mitt as an extremist.
It was the Republican/Conservative team -- in the broad picture -- who lost this one by not taking the fight into the trenches with enthusiasm.
And -- I think the battleground we lost most jarringly was the legal one.
There are so many legal and moral improprieties with how the country was governed for 4 years and how the Left has organized, it ought to have been like shooting fish in a barrel to litigate them to death even prior to election season. But we didn't. They got away with it.
I blame the Conservative lawyers.
Edited on November 7, 2012 at 7:43pmOct '10
Re: It Wasn't Demographics
Fewer votes than McCain? And after 4 years of Obama's failed policies? That is something I will never, ever wrap my head around.