It Ain't Over 'Til the Fat Lady Sings
And so far she's still in her dressing room, singing a few scales before getting into her costume.
As John Hinderaker points out over on Powerline, the Republican National Committee changed the primary rules, eliminating winner-take-all primaries before April, intentionally to make the process slower and more deliberative--and the RNC has almost certainly succeeded:
[As of] April 1, 31 states will have chosen their delegates–all of them using proportional representation.
Unless I am missing something, this ought to ensure that the GOP race remains interesting for some time to come. Even if Romney wins the first few primaries, it seems unlikely that the opponents then remaining in the race–some of them, anyway–will collapse. Rather, they will be on a path to winning a significant number of delegates. If opposition to Romney among a substantial portion of the party’s base is as persistent as it now looks, the other candidates will have every incentive to stay in the race. It seems entirely possible, even likely, that as of April 1, with most of the convention delegates chosen, Romney will have garnered well under one-half of them. If that is the case, the race could stay interesting for a long time.
Gingrich could stage a comeback in South Carolina; Santorum, until now the St. Francis of the race, subsisting on almost daily alms, might prove capable of raising enough money and hiring enough seasoned hands to put together an organization capable of enabling him to compete in major states such as Florida; and some so-far-unknown candidate may yet--to mention Bill Kristol's recurring dream--jump in.
This is indeed likely to stay interesting.
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Dec '10
Re: It Ain't Over 'Til the Fat Lady Sings
Don't forget that (as of September, the last data I have) Romney and Perry are the only contenders with any money. If money still matters then Perry could be a fly in someone's ointment for a while yet. I don't think he has much of a shot (regardless of what my hopes are), but his continued presence in the race can serve to shape/refine the non-Romney (coalition? contention? three headed monster?) eventual candidate.
Apr '11
Re: It Ain't Over 'Til the Fat Lady Sings
Just to be clear, Florida is an unmodified Winner Takes All state, while South Carolina's rules are very unclear. It was split between County Delegates and At Large Delegates, with the CD being WTA by County, the AL being WTA statewide, but half of its delegates have been removed for disobedience and it is unclear whether those remaining are AL or CD delegates. It seems likely that both will be essentially winner takes all states.
After those, all states are proportional, in some way or another, until April. There are some exceptions, such as Ohio and Alabama, which give all of their AL Delegates to any candidate achieving a majority of the votes, which in Alabama represent a majority of their delegates (26/47 selected by election +3 superdelegates). Michigan and Kansas each have small WTA bonus delegates, and lots of states have counter-intuitive rounding rules that move more delegates than one might think.
I'm trying to turn my home-made spreadsheet into a modelling website, but it turns out to be quite hard to do.
Dec '10
Re: It Ain't Over 'Til the Fat Lady Sings
James Of England: Just to be clear, Florida is an unmodified Winner Takes All state, while South Carolina's rules are very unclear. It was split between County Delegates and At Large Delegates, with the CD being WTA by County, the AL being WTA statewide, but half of its delegates have been removed for disobedience and it is unclear whether those remaining are AL or CD delegates. It seems likely that both will be essentially winner takes all states.
After those, all states are proportional, in some way or another, until April. There are some exceptions, such as Ohio and Alabama, which give all of their AL Delegates to any candidate achieving a majority of the votes, which in Alabama represent a majority of their delegates (26/47 selected by election +3 superdelegates). Michigan and Kansas each have small WTA bonus delegates, and lots of states have counter-intuitive rounding rules that move more delegates than one might think.
I'm trying to turn my home-made spreadsheet into a modelling website, but it turns out to be quite hard to do. · Jan 5 at 12:21am
I understand every word you wrote but not one sentence...except the last.
Apr '11
Re: It Ain't Over 'Til the Fat Lady Sings
If the results in Florida are the same as in Iowa, but 9 Romney votes are destroyed in a freak accident before counting, Santorum gets 50 delegates, Romney gets zero.
It may be the case that South Carolina is the same (with 25 delegates), or they may have a system in which each County awards its delegates to the winner there (with none being awarded to the candidate who comes second in that county), or they may have a mix of the two systems (as originally intended).
Each state has it's own rules, often sorting delegates out into up to four categories, with different rules applying to each category. These rules are often moderately complicated within each category; for instance if a candidate achieves more than 50% of the statewide vote in Alabama, they get all 26 delegates in the At Large category, while if no candidate gets 50% those delegates are divided on a proportional basis between those candidates who received more than 20% of the vote.
This is because America is a federal system, in which sovereign states choose their systems with little federal influence.... unless Perry achieves his litigious desires in Virginia. ;-)
May '10
Re: It Ain't Over 'Til the Fat Lady Sings
The only person I can imagine jumping in this late in the game and having a chance would be Palin. She's already a household name, and the media (on both sides) hates her so much that there would be no end to free publicity for her. In fact, the more the media hate her, the more many voters like her.
Re: It Ain't Over 'Til the Fat Lady Sings
JamesofEngland, thanks for that clarification. (It didn't actually clear things up, but that's not your fault, it's the fault of rules that turn out to be more complicated than I'd realized, and I thought I'd more or less grasped them.) Good luck on your modeling project--and I hope we can persuade you to share it with us here on Ricochet once you've got it up and running.
But again, thanks. My head hurts--but thanks.
Aug '10
Re: It Ain't Over 'Til the Fat Lady Sings
So if the can't-find-it-with-both-hands-in-Virginia brigade ("Now Bachmann Free"), manage to toss enough gorilla dust and tortuous legal jibber-jabber around the Old Dominion, thus getting a mulligan there, are we still waiting in vain for savior to rise from these streets?
Can we dump these live dogs for a not-dead lion?
If it ain't over, it ain't because Sainted Santorum and Buford Pusser/Pale Vengeance Newt and I Forget-The-Third are the ones we've been waiting for, not by a long shot.
For every Not-Romney voter out there, there is an equal and opposite None-Y'all-Other-Doofuses-Either voter as well, lord knows I'm one.
And Aaron, I'll see your Palin and raise you a Jeb Bush, and I'll cop your reasons for a kicker, noting only that the media hate for Jeb will come from his right long before the MSM turns on him.
Free Bill Kristol!
Dec '10
Re: It Ain't Over 'Til the Fat Lady Sings
A couple of things:
James, no wonder your modeling project is proving so difficult. Also, does the national party have no say? I was under the impression that Florida was being docked half its slate of delegates for jumping the queue.
Aaron, yes, Palin has the ability to rock the boat, perhaps even capsize it. She also has the political savvy to pull such a stunt. SarahPac probably has more cash on hand than some of the active campaigns.
SBR, if Perry (now joined by all others) has a legitimate complaint should it not be resolved?
Aug '10
Re: It Ain't Over 'Til the Fat Lady Sings
The King Prawn: A couple of things:
James, no wonder your modeling project is proving so difficult. Also, does the national party have no say? I was under the impression that Florida was being docked half its slate of delegates for jumping the queue.
Aaron, yes, Palin has the ability to rock the boat, perhaps even capsize it. She also has the political savvy to pull such a stunt. SarahPac probably has more cash on hand than some of the active campaigns.
SBR, if Perry (now joined by all others) has a legitimate complaint should it not be resolved? · Jan 5 at 10:36am
That's a big if given how many candidates have cleared the same bar, stood for election, and now hold office under the same rules. Yes, it should get resolved, but if it is just the BS claim of a failed campaign it should get shot down fast.
I am more interested in the potential benefit of a court ordered mulligan for the heroes of the None-Y'alls. My question being, is sauce for the aggrieved plaintiff geese sauce for the Sarah Palin and Jeb Bush ganders as well?
That would be fun to watch.
Edited on Jan 5 at 10:55amDec '10
Re: It Ain't Over 'Til the Fat Lady Sings
Squishy Blue RINO
That's a big if given how many candidates have cleared the same bar, stood for election, and now hold office under the same rules. So yes it should, but if it is BS claim of a failed campaign it should get shot dead fast.
It is what it is, I am more interested in the implications of a court ordered mulligan for the None-Y'alls. My question being, is sauce for the aggrieved plaintiff geese sauce for the Palin-Bush ganders too?
That would be fun to watch. · Jan 5 at 10:49am
The rub is that it is not the same bar other candidates have cleared. In the past if a candidate submitted 10K signatures they were in. This year, due to a lawsuit by an independent candidate, the signatures were verified for validity. Yes, it's a technicality (and a big duh), but had the process been the same as it had been in the past all of the candidates would be on the ballot.
Dec '11
Re: It Ain't Over 'Til the Fat Lady Sings
The King Prawn
The rub is that it is not the same bar other candidates have cleared. In the past if a candidate submitted 10K signatures they were in. This year, due to a lawsuit by an independent candidate, the signatures were verified for validity. Yes, it's a technicality (and a big duh), but had the process been the same as it had been in the past all of the candidates would be on the ballot. · Jan 5 at 11:00am
VA state politics is going to be fun too. Because Bill Bolling is Romney's campaign manager. Bill and Ken Cuccenelli are both going to run for governor. Ken the attorney general originally said that the rule change was not legitimate mid stream, then Bill started publically essentially threatening Ken, so Ken backed away.
Personally, I think Gingrich and Perry get ordered on the ballot having met the advertised requirements before the rule change, and santorum doesnt. I think the likelyhood of this decision will make Ken Cuccinelli defy Bob MacDonald and Bill Bolling and appeal to the grassroots that elected him by not seriously defending the state.
Aug '10
Re: It Ain't Over 'Til the Fat Lady Sings
The King Prawn
The rub is that it is not the same bar other candidates have cleared. In the past if a candidate submitted 10K signatures they were in. This year, due to a lawsuit by an independent candidate, the signatures were verified for validity. Yes, it's a technicality (and a big duh), but had the process been the same as it had been in the past all of the candidates would be on the ballot. · Jan 5 at 11:00am
Yeah the VA GOP really stepped in it, if that is the gist of the situation they should just back off and put them on the ballot, OCT 2011 is way to late to raise the bar.
Sure seems like there is a lot of slop in the signature gathering, the attrition rate seems very high.
Apr '11
Re: It Ain't Over 'Til the Fat Lady Sings
Peter Robinson: JamesofEngland, thanks for that clarification. (It didn't actually clear things up, but that's not your fault, it's the fault of rules that turn out to be more complicated than I'd realized, and I thought I'd more or less grasped them.) Good luck on your modeling project--and I hope we can persuade you to share it with us here on Ricochet once you've got it up and running.
But again, thanks. My head hurts--but thanks. ·
The important thing is that 2nd place in Florida is worthless (the only big state for which this is necessarily true), and that 2nd place in South Carolina might be similar. I suspect that this is part of why Perry is going straight to SC, and that Newt is only going to NH because he believes that this is the right strategy for SC. I really wish SC would publish the rules they intend to use, though.
If you're bothered because you learned false rules, it might help if you realized that SC and FL are cheating; they lose half their delegates for not obeying the date requirements, and there is no further penalty.
Apr '11
Re: It Ain't Over 'Til the Fat Lady Sings
The King Prawn: A couple of things:
James, no wonder your modeling project is proving so difficult. Also, does the national party have no say? I was under the impression that Florida was being docked half its slate of delegates for jumping the queue.
Aaron, yes, Palin has the ability to rock the boat, perhaps even capsize it. She also has the political savvy to pull such a stunt. SarahPac probably has more cash on hand than some of the active campaigns.
SBR, if Perry (now joined by all others) has a legitimate complaint should it not be resolved? ·\
The state party writes the rules within the strictures of the RNC rules, Federal law (mostly dealing with race), and state law. The provision fought over is state law, and Perry is claiming that the States Rights on this issue are weaker than had previously been thought. He may be right, although I get the impression that the rules will be changed for future races, not this one. It's just funny seeing him litigating against federalism. If he drops out after South Carolina, the litigation uncomplete, the rule is more likely to stay.
Oct '10
Re: It Ain't Over 'Til the Fat Lady Sings
I think Ryan could attract big money pretty much instantaneously if he chose to run. And media attention, if only because the MSM would rightly see him as the threat he is.
But not likely is it. I like Sarah Palin a lot, but I haven't wanted her to run until now. At this point, I'd welcome it. Palin versus Obama would be the cultural battle to end all cultural battles. Multicultural elite versus red-neck mama. Bring it on. She's been so good articulating the issues from the sidelines, I wouldn't be afraid--as I was formerly--of her being the nominee.
Edited on Jan 6 at 6:03amApr '11
Re: It Ain't Over 'Til the Fat Lady Sings
Severely Ltd.
I think Ryan could attract big money pretty much instantaneously if he chose to run. And media attention, if only because the MSM would rightly see him as the threat he is.
But not likely is it. I like Sarah Palin a lot, but I haven't wanted her to run until now. At this point, I'd welcome it. Palin versus Obama would be the cultural battle to end all cultural battles. Multicultural elite versus red-neck mama. Bring it on. She's been so good articulating the issues from the sidelines, I wouldn't be afraid--as I was formerly--of her being the nominee.
Support, maybe, but he couldn't get on nearly enough ballots or build an organization. New entrants are out until a brokered convention.