It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over, Darn It
From today's New York Times:
Races typically tighten in the final month as voters on both sides become more engaged, and the political climate is no more favorable for Democrats than it has been all year, with no substantial signs of improvement in the economy or the outlook for unemployment.
Yet even as spending from outside groups is threatening to swamp many Democratic candidates, Republican strategists estimated that only half of the 39 seats they need to win control of the House were definitively in hand.
Many Democratic incumbents remain vulnerable, but their positions have stabilized in the last month as they have begun running negative advertisements to raise questions about their Republican challengers and shift the focus of voters away from contentious national issues like health care, bailouts and President Obama’s performance.
I'm not at all happy to say so, but that feels right to me. Here in the Golden State, for instance, Democrat Barbara Boxer has blanketed the airwaves with ads portraying her Republican opponent, Carly Fiorina, as a hard-hearted executive who, while running Hewlett-Packard, deprived Californians of work by shipping jobs overseas. The result? Polls show Fiorina slipping.
And then there's the smear of Republican gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman, who for some nine years employed an illegal immigrant as a maid. In fact, as best I can make it out, Whitman obeyed the law scrupulously, checking the maid's documents before hiring her (the maid provided documents all right, but they were fraudulent), then dismissing her, when, all these years later, the maid admitted she was illegal. But one version or another of "Whitman Hired Illegal" has been on the front pages of every newspaper in the state for three days now.
The negative stuff works--and the Democrats are good at it. For now, let's all keep our champagne corked.
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Re: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over, Darn It
Peter, you should not read The New York Times. The folks who work there flack for Obama. What they are "reporting" is what would demoralize Republicans, As for California, like New York, it is its own world. It is possible that the phony scandal cooked up by the Dems will ruin Meg Whitman's chances. That only means that it will take another electoral cycle and a complete collapse for California to catch up with the rest of us.
Elsewhere it is perfectly clear, as your subsequent post makes evident, that the Republicans are gaining ground. Keep in mind that, apart from Rasmussen, most of the pollsters tend not to sample likely voters. Trust me. In November, there will be a deluge. John Dingell is in trouble here in Michigan; Barney Frank is in trouble in Massachusetts. It is not over but the only question left unanswered is whether the Republicans are going to win 70 seats in the House or 100.
May '10
Re: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over, Darn It
Finally, someone agrees with me! I swear, half their readers are conservatives either looking for something to gripe about or slavishly adhering to the status quo.
Stop feeding the beast.
Re: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over, Darn It
Paul and Aaron, you make me feel much better. Re quitting the New York Times, I have a problem. Aaron, you're too young to appreciate this, I think, but Paul will understand immediately: I grew up in a time and a place in which it was simply assumed that if you didn't read the Times you weren't a serious person. What you're asking me to do here is to overturn the habit of a lifetime. Paul, how did you manage? Is there a ten-step program?
Jul '10
Re: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over, Darn It
Whitman and Fiorinia might, arguably, be the best candidates a moribund California GOP could field, but they're feckless candidates, nevertheless.
Whitman has all the charisma of a flounder and about as much conservative principle as Colin Powell. In a year where a fired-up communicator like Chris Christie might have had a chance in California, we got a bazillionaire on Thorazine.
As for Fiorina, she's an adept communicator, but her past, quite rightly, haunts her and her campaign ads are sophomoric - "Choose where to send Barbara Boxer for retirement"? Really?
Look, let's face it: these women are nothing but rank opportunists, unwilling to take their millions and retire to a life of dignified philanthropy.
Voters don't like opportunists; given the choice, bovine California voters will cast their ballots for vile ideologues who somewhat-convincingly pretend to care for them instead of wealthy dilletantes who very obviously care only for themselves.
Edited on Oct 2, 2010 at 4:24pmRe: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over, Darn It
You have to begin by going cold turkey. I did so in 1983 by going to Turkey, where The New York Times was not to be found. I never looked back. In recent years, when I have consulted that paper, I have found it to an every-increasing degree a source of disinformation, and the evidence suggests that the public has begun to see the light. Subscriptions are dropping, and down the road bankruptcy looms.
If, when you go cold turkey, you begin to get the DTs, I suggest that you read The Wall Street Journal.
Jul '10
Re: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over, Darn It
I hesitate to give the Devil his due, but, for better or worse, the Times still occasionally commits competent journalism and is worth a look. Same for NPR and WaPo. Of course, the best print journalism, far and away, comes from the Wall Street Journal.
I worry, as the print journalism model - which provided abundant funding for original journalism, dwindles into extinction - where real, trenchant journalism will be found. The Web, for all its delights, is largely derivative, with a horde of pundits commenting upon the rapidly-diminishing output of true, shoe-leather journalists.
May '10
Re: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over, Darn It
Peter, just read Jonah Goldberg's various quotings of Thomas Freidman during this or that evisceration. That's all the Times you need. You shall conquer this, Peter. You shall.
And Eeyore, er, Kenneth, I must now read Mr. Rahe's comment about 70-100 seats over and over, in Hari Krishna fashion, in order to undo the damage done to my frame of mind by your post. Thanks, big guy.
May '10
Re: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over, Darn It
Kenneth
I worry, as the print journalism model - which provided abundant funding for original journalism, dwindles into extinction - where real, trenchant journalism will be found. The Web, for all its delights, is largely derivative, with a horde of pundits commenting upon the rapidly-diminishing output of true, shoe-leather journalists. · Oct 2 at 4:43pm
Me too, but I bet the market will solve the problem in the form of freelancers, or in some other manner. When needs truly arise, they have an uncanny way of getting filled. It's that whole capitalism thing.
Edited on Oct 2, 2010 at 5:24pmAug '10
Re: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over, Darn It
Any chance of making "shoe-leather," whiskey-bottle-in-the-lower drawer, Underwood typewriter (okay keyboard), all-night-coffee-shop journalism make money for Web news models? I cannot imagine why not.
Edited on Oct 2, 2010 at 6:11pmJul '10
Re: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over, Darn It
David Schmitt
Any chance of making "shoe-leather," whiskey-bottle-in-the-lower drawer, Underwood typewriter (okay keyboard), all-night-coffee-shop journalism make money for Web news models? · Oct 2 at 5:51pm
One can only hope.
Jun '10
Re: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over, Darn It
When I was a young lad (circa 1973), I picked up a job as neighborhood paperboy for the Washington Post. The Sunday edition was a five pound behemoth nearly three inches thick. I carried maybe eight at a time in two bags, one slung over each shoulder. Monday was easy by comparison; I could carry 20 to 25 papers per run before returning to the stack for a refill.
When I returned to Washington last year for a visit, I noticed the Sunday edition had been reduced by more than half since my days as a paperboy. The Monday edition was a mere slip of a rag, hardly enough to kindle a fire. Proof if anymore were needed that print journalism is dying.
Aug '10
Re: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over, Darn It
Re: The New York Times
I had a similar experience with The Economist. I used to feel so tuned in and smart reading it, informed about the world at a depth that I didn't see in any American paper.
It was with sadness later that I realized that I had fallen out of love with the paper. Each time I was jarred by what seemed to me tone-deafness about America, I lost confidence in the reporting on everywhere else.
Where do you go for news these days?
May '10
Re: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over, Darn It
I've never liked it. But I took to disliking the paper infinitely more aftering reading John Stossel's "Give Me a Break" and I learned that a major TV news network assigned stories to its reporters by cutting out NYT articles. Talk about myopic reporting!
Occasionally, the New York Times does produce an excellent article. If conservatives can kick the habit, maybe the few reporters of quality that the Times has will take jobs with respectable companies.