Israel On the Hot Seat
Things are starting to heat up rather abruptly for us here in Israel. Hezbollah is making noises about invading the Galilee, and two Iranian warships are said to be moving toward the Suez Canal on their way to Syria. Libya is calling on Palestinians to rise up and attack Israel. The Jordanian Foreign Minister -- after recommending that a Jordanian soldier who shot and killed seven Israeli schoolgirls in 1997 be released early from prison -- declared that Israel, which has a peace treaty with Jordan, is an enemy and a terrorist state.
Here's a little thought experiment to help you understand why all this is happening all of a sudden.
Imagine you're Sheik Hassan Nasrallah. You've managed to evict Sa'ad Hariri, the Lebanese prime minister who refused to be extorted into cooperating with your coverup of Hezbollah's involvement in the murder of his father, Rafik. You've got a Syrian-approved stooge in place as the new PM, so that's all good. But you're still faced with the prospect of a potentially unmanageable civil war should the pending UN tribunal indict Hezbollah members for Rafik's assassination. The tribunal's indictments have been filed but have not yet been made public. Leaked information strongly indicates Hezbollah will indeed be named. What to do?
Okay, now you're the King of Jordan. Your regime, once relatively stable, is splintering out from under you. Your East Bank tribal leaders, suddenly uncowed by the sedition laws banning criticism of the royal family, have dared to state publicly that they disapprove of your Palestinian-Jordanian wife and expect you to strip her of her political role, stat. East Bankers and ex-West Bankers -- i.e., Palestinian Jordanians -- are attacking each other at soccer games. The East Bankers have a lock on the military and positions of influence, but the West Bankers control the country's economy and outnumber the East Bankers. And they're sick and tired of that "P" in their Jordanian passports, which makes them feel like second-class citizens. Thousands have gathered to make unprecedented demands for change, and your dismissal of the entire government doesn't seem to have satisfied them. The fissures in your culture are bursting open, and you're the one getting splattered. What to do?
Right. Now you're Qaddafi. You've had your fist around Libya's neck for forty-one years, but damn if even your citizens haven't been affected by the revolutionary virus that's sweeping the region. Hundreds of people poured into the streets of Benghazi today, setting fire to cars and clashing with police. In Zentan, protesters torched security headquarters and a police station. They're chanting that they want the country's "corrupt rulers" out, and out now. Tomorrow, Thursday, is supposed to be a Libyan "Day of Rage." What to do?
Okay. Now you're Ahmadinejad. The protesters keep coming, despite -- or perhaps because of -- the calls by your parliamentarians to have their leaders executed. You're perfectly willing to mow them all down, but the rest of the world is watching. This doesn't worry you particularly -- indeed, you get a rather pleasant frisson at the prospect of slaughtering pro-democrats in front of the Americans and then watching them squirm their way toward a non-response -- but tactically speaking, it would be as well to divert attention to an external enemy while taking care of business at home. The Americans and the Europeans seem to be less clear in their minds about the Green Revolution than they were about the Egyptian one, so it shouldn't be difficult to distract them. Still, it'll have to be done fast. The sooner the counterrevolution is put down, the better. What to do?
The answer in each case is the same as it has been for embattled Muslim regimes since 1948. Go on the offensive against Israel. It shuts up the populace, since you can't very well side against your own government while it's fighting the Little Satan. It tamps down internal divisions, since no internal squabble can compare with the endless existential fight with the Zionist colonialist imperialist oppressor. It shoves the Israeli-Palestinian problem back to the fore, enabling you to hide your countries' problems behind it as you have done quite successfully for generations.
As of this writing, Bibi has responded verbally to the Hezbollah threat. Speaking tonight at a meeting of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations, he said there is no way Hezbollah will occupy the Galilee. "Anyone who hides in a bunker will stay in a bunker," he said, referring to Nasrallah. "We have a strong army and a united nation. We tried for peace with all of our neighbors, but the army is prepared and ready to defend Israel against any enemy."
Interestingly, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, who broke the story about the Iranian warships, is under fire for having broken ranks: the Defense Ministry had apparently decided to keep a lid on the story when he started talking. Defense Minister Ehud Barak says we're keeping an eye on the ships but declined to comment further, other than to say that we've alerted "friendly nations in the region." There's chatter in the blogosphere right now about what we might do if pressed, but so far it's all speculation. Suffice it to say that tensions are rising in the neighborhood, and our brand-new Chief of Staff might have some serious work to do in the not-too-distant future.
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Dec '10
Re: Israel On the Hot Seat
How was the Defense Ministry going to explain it if the Iranian warships had "popped up" in the Mediterranean and tried to run the Israeli blockade to make a port call in Gaza? Barak wouldn't really want Israelis to find out that there'd been a military confrontation with Iran after the fact, would he?
It's disturbing that Barak thinks there's a way to keep a lid on a story like Iran sending warships through the Suez Canal, much less that it's desirable to do so.
Dec '10
Re: Israel On the Hot Seat
I imagine that Bibi Netanyahu sent the King of Jordan a backchannel message that explains to him that if Jordan decides to abrogate its peace treaty with Israel, then Jordan had better be prepared to go to war -- that it won't be immune from any conflagration that erupts on Israel's frontiers.
It would be surprising to find out that King Abdullah has the stomach for war with Israel, no matter who else is on his side.
Nov '10
Re: Israel On the Hot Seat
"Now you're Ahmadinejad. ... you get a rather pleasant frisson at the prospect of slaughtering pro-democrats in front of the Americans and then watching them squirm their way toward a non-response --"
Very well put.
And I've found myself wondering over the last week, exactly what conditions would drive Israel to use nuclear weapons against attacking counties? I fear I may live long enough to find out.
Re: Israel On the Hot Seat
Stuart Creque
I imagine that Bibi Netanyahu sent the King of Jordan a backchannel message that explains to him that if Jordan decides to abrogate its peace treaty with Israel, then Jordan had better be prepared to go to war -- that it won't be immune from any conflagration that erupts on Israel's frontiers.
It would be surprising to find out that King Abdullah has the stomach for war with Israel, no matter who else is on his side. · Feb 16 at 1:21pm
Indeed. This business with Jordan is particularly disturbing. I find myself wondering whether the King's foreign minister has just gone off the reservation or what. If he really is speaking for the King, then Abdullah's wading into dangerous waters.
Dec '10
Re: Israel On the Hot Seat
Starve the Beast:
And I've found myself wondering over the last week, exactly what conditions would drive Israel to use nuclear weapons against attacking counties? I fear I may live long enough to find out. · Feb 16 at 1:28pm
I think a follow up question to yours would be "is there a single instance in which the world community--or even just the West--would support Israel using a nuke?". Unfortunately, if Israel ever had to use the bomb, which is an ever increasing in likelihood, the world would shun her and she would be doomed anyhow.
Despite all of this, I just can't help but hope that Israel finally stands up for herself, says "to heck with world opinion", and deals with the barbarians at the gates.
Nov '10
Re: Israel On the Hot Seat
Michael Horn
Starve the Beast:
And I've found myself wondering over the last week, exactly what conditions would drive Israel to use nuclear weapons against attacking counties? I fear I may live long enough to find out. · Feb 16 at 1:28pm
... "is there a single instance in which the world community--or even just the West--would support Israel using a nuke?".
No. Absolutely not. Even the US with an actual president would be too squeamish to put that card on the table.
I agree with you about one thing - I'm with Israel, pretty much no matter how they respond to the next attack. I hope they can win without using such drastic measures, but the fact is, they've been driven to it, no matter what the global left wants us to believe.
Dec '10
Re: Israel On the Hot Seat
Judith Levy
Indeed. This business with Jordan is particularly disturbing. I find myself wondering whether the King's foreign minister has just gone off the reservation or what. If he really is speaking for the King, then Abdullah's wading into dangerous waters. · Feb 16 at 1:30pm
I think the better question is why the King appointed or acceded to the appointment of such a radical to the post of Foreign Minister. Given that the fellow is foursquare for the murder of Israeli schoolgirls, he seems less diplomatic than one might want as one's chief diplomat.
Aug '10
Re: Israel On the Hot Seat
It seems to me that both the friends and the enemies of Israel are holding their breaths, eyes shut tight,fists clenched, waiting to see where the current turmoil will lead for Israel.As a committed friend, I am very worried. I'm afraid there are far too many who are quietly excited.
Dec '10
Re: Israel On the Hot Seat
Stuart Creque "...I imagine that Bibi Netanyahu sent the King of Jordan a backchannel message that explains to him that if Jordan decides to abrogate its peace treaty with Israel, then Jordan had better be prepared to go to war -- that it won't be immune from any conflagration that erupts on Israel's frontiers...."
I wonder if, in this Wikileaks era, what backchannel means, any longer.
"...I think the better question is why the King appointed or acceded to the appointment of such a radical to the post of Foreign Minister. ..."
Starve The Beast: "I wonder at the extent to which a weak monarch ever had a choice.... "is there a single instance in which the world community--or even just the West--would support Israel using a nuke?".
No. Absolutely not. Even the US with an actual president would be too squeamish to put that card on the table. "
This is existential. Hezbollah from the north, Egypt from the south, Jordan from the east, and Iranian warships from the Mediterranian. Squeamishness only pertains to people comfortably discussing abstract issues in their safe parlors. Israel will do what it has to do, if it has to do it.
Dec '10
Re: Israel On the Hot Seat
Oops; deleted in an edit:
"...I think the better question is why the King appointed or acceded to the appointment of such a radical to the post of Foreign Minister. ..."
I wonder if a weak monarch had any choice?
Dec '10
Re: Israel On the Hot Seat
CJRun: Oops; deleted in an edit:
"...I think the better question is why the King appointed or acceded to the appointment of such a radical to the post of Foreign Minister. ..."
I wonder if a weak monarch had any choice? · Feb 16 at 4:00pm
If that's the case, he needs to pack up his lovely bride and a trunkful of hard assets and get on the plane to Morocco.
Jan '11
Re: Israel On the Hot Seat
"friendly nations in the region"? There's more than one? Actually, there even one?
I miss the days when the behaviour of soccer hooligans was the issue that vexed the western world. In my small mind, the current developments aren't just related to a desire for freedom and a need to overthrow despots - rather - we are heading in to a new time of food shortages and escalating fuel costs that no government can solve. And overpopulated, restive Islamic nations is an issue that we've not yet seen play out. Good times! :-(
Feb '11
Re: Israel On the Hot Seat
This evening, I read at Hot Air the following blog: “U.S. to join UN Security Council statement rebuking Israel over settlements” posted by Allahpundit . http://hotair.com/archives/2011/02/16/report-u-s-to-join-un-security-council-statement-rebuking-israel-over-settlements/
Like others, I am deeply worried for Israel.
Oct '10
Re: Israel On the Hot Seat
As the great Rahm Emanuel once said, "Never let a crisis go to waste."
Re: Israel On the Hot Seat
Judith, thank you so very much for putting the pieces together here. Your analysis and perspective is vital to understanding how all the various moving parts in this mess actually interact. Thanks for presenting the mosaic in this fashion. Drudge now reports that the Obama administration is trying to thread the needle as it were, and preparing to condemn Israel, though not as harshly as some Arab states would like. How's that for intestinal fortitude? My hope is for Israel's triumph and my prayer is for your safety.
Edited on Feb 16, 2011 at 6:22pmNov '10
Re: Israel On the Hot Seat
I wonder if the regimes trying to deflect the ire of their own people at Israel have thought out what they will do if they start a war with Israel and Israel destroys their military? Who or what will protect them from their own people then?
Re: Israel On the Hot Seat
Dave Carter: Judith, thank you so very much for putting the pieces together here. Your analysis and perspective is vital to understanding how all the various moving parts in this mess actually interact. Thanks for presenting the mosaic in this fashion. Drudge now reports that the Obama administration is trying to thread the needle as it were, and preparing to condemn Israel, though not as harshly as some Arab states would like. How's that for intestinal fortitude? My hope is for Israel's triumph and my prayer is for your safety. · Feb 16 at 6:17pm
Edited on Feb 16 at 06:22 pm
Dave, I appreciate this. Thank you.