Israel, Doing Better--a Lot Better--Than I'd Thought
I've been supposing for weeks now that the so-called Arab spring has enormously complicated Israel's defense problem, forcing the IDF to concern itself not only with Hezbollah on the border with Lebanon but with unrest on the Syrian border and new threats from Gaza and the long desert border with Egypt. At the Tablet, David Goldman argues just the opposite--and does so compellingly. To wit:
Israel’s security position surely benefits in the long-term from the weakening or even the collapse of its chief military opponents among its Arab neighbors….While the Western media trumpets the anodyne Bush-era fantasy of a forward-looking Arab world overthrowing outmoded autocrats in favor of Western-style democracy via Facebook and Twitter, the Arab world seems headed toward an abyss….
Severe food shortages were spreading in Syria, the U.N. Food and Agricultural Organization reported in May, even before the phrase “civil war” became endemic in Western press reports about that country….
Egypt is short about $25 billion a year, and it is doubtful that Western governments will pick up that tab for long. Canadian Prime Minister John Harper declined to commit funds to the G-8 support package, and Republicans in the United States Congress have already questioned the wisdom of throwing money into countries whose governments may come under the control of anti-American Islamist radicals.
Judith? Claire?
(Hat tip to Dartmouth economist Meir Kohn.)
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Nov '10
Re: Israel, Doing Better--a Lot Better--Than I'd Thought
The trouble with chaotic situations is that you just don't know what will come out of them. I can imagine something very similar being written in the late 1920's in Britain, concerning Germany.BTW, it's Stephen Harper, not John Harper.
Re: Israel, Doing Better--a Lot Better--Than I'd Thought
You make an extremely good point. Distressing, but difficult to refute.
As for the mistake re the Canadian PM, it's in the original, so I won't correct it, but thanks for pointing out the error.
Apr '11
Re: Israel, Doing Better--a Lot Better--Than I'd Thought
Just to piggy back on HalifaxCB's point, it seems to me like Iran is still managing to defy gravity and plow ahead with their nuclear program. If Syria staggers on while Iraq and Egypt remain relatively weak, Iran becomes evermore the unchecked regional power.
Jun '11
Re: Israel, Doing Better--a Lot Better--Than I'd Thought
"Israel’s security position surely benefits in the long-term from the weakening or even the collapse of its chief military opponents among its Arab neighbors…"
I would respectfully reverse the chronology. Short term, their enemies are weakened.
Long term, they are gaining oil reserves, banking systems, entree to the UN and other perks.
The caliphate returns.
Aug '10
Re: Israel, Doing Better--a Lot Better--Than I'd Thought
I would agree with Michael that while the chaos may bode well for Israel in the short term, the long term outlook is much more cloudy.The islamification and growing anti-semitism of Europe are very troubling. Also, like most developed countries, the birthrate in Israel continues to fall and is far below that of its arab neighbors. At this rate they will simply be overrun...
Mar '11
Re: Israel, Doing Better--a Lot Better--Than I'd Thought
Israel lives, and lives best, in the short term. It’s as hard to predict the future in the Middle East as it was to predict the past in the Soviet Union. Whenever Israel deluded itself into thinking that it could see five, 10, or 20 years down the road, it got a lesson in humility. Israel lives on a perpetual precipice. It forgets that at its (and our) peril.
The good news is if you string enough short terms together, you get to celebrate 63 years of survival and prosperity.
Jun '11
Re: Israel, Doing Better--a Lot Better--Than I'd Thought
Jack Richman: Israel lives, and lives best, in the short term. It’s as hard to predict the future in the Middle East as it was to predict the past in the Soviet Union. Whenever Israel deluded itself into thinking that it could see five, 10, or 20 years down the road, it got a lesson in humility. Israel lives on a perpetual precipice. It forgets that at its (and our) peril.
The good news is if you string enough short terms together, you get to celebrate 63 years of survival and prosperity. · Jun 14 at 2:25pm
Hah! Great point.
Feb '11
Re: Israel, Doing Better--a Lot Better--Than I'd Thought
Goldman at his best. Thanks.
70 years wasted! The Arab countries could have been working to develop viable economies and human capital. Instead, they chose to indulge their hate for Jews (and Americans).
They've run out their clocks. Too many people. No money. No exports. No food. No water. And soon enough, no oil. All they can show: virtuous women and hand-me-down weapon systems, which they didn't make and don't know how to use or maintain.
There's no revolution that can fix things now. It's just a matter of time before the region goes the way of Somalia. The remaining variables are outside anyone's control (water tables, UG99, etc).
While Iran buys wheat from the Great Satan and dumps remaining funds into proxy armies on Israel's borders, and Egypt begs for money even to buy food, and Syria's capital is ringed with refugees driven by draught from the east, the Arabs still think they're winning.
In 50 years, the Arab versions of Mad Max will gather yearly at Israel's walls, to shout death to the Jews and to burn American flags.
I'm an optimist, though.
Dec '10
Re: Israel, Doing Better--a Lot Better--Than I'd Thought
Israel needs to declare defeat.
Netanyahu should broadcast to the Arab and wider Muslim world, "We admit it -- you won! You defeated the Jews totally!
"You drove us into a tiny corner of the Middle East, one-fifth the size of the combined ghettoes we occupied in your countries before 1948. Now we're all crowded together, behind walls and fences, safely contained and separated from you.
"We acknowledge your superior numbers and might. If we were more powerful, millions of us would not have been driven out of your lands and forced into this last ghetto, the one remaining Jewish Quarter of the Muslim world.
"Celebrate your victory, and savor its sweetness. And then, tomorrow, we the vanquished will sit down with you, the victors, and offer you what meager tribute we have: assistance with agricultural technology, to show you how to make your deserts bloom as ours have done, expert guidance in building the institutions of democracy, to show you how even people with widely divergent backgrounds and views can work together in self-governance, and industrial expertise toward building your economies to create jobs for your people."
Think they'd fall for it?
Edited on Jun 14, 2011 at 11:09pmRe: Israel, Doing Better--a Lot Better--Than I'd Thought
Yes, but it remains to be seen how Syria will shake out. As Goldman notes, Iran's freedom of maneuver is curtailed as long as the chaos in Syria goes on. The Syrian people, meanwhile, have noticed that Hezbollah -- which is always waving its bona fides as the arm of popular Muslims against the Zionist enemy -- is busy helping Assad to crush them. The "Israel is the problem!" line is ringing hollow. The next time Assad decides to swing the focus onto Israel, he might find himself fighting not only us but his own people. And this could apply to Lebanon, too.
Of course, the key will be (as ever) the army. Enough of the Syrian army is still in Assad's corner that we're not going to see him thrown to the wolves the way Mubarak and Ben Ali were. Still, the cat's out of the bag. The claim of the dictator and his allies that they stand for popular resistance has been exposed as a lie, and so has the claim that Israel is the real enemy.
Re: Israel, Doing Better--a Lot Better--Than I'd Thought
Not necessarily. Have a look at this.
Feb '11
Re: Israel, Doing Better--a Lot Better--Than I'd Thought
Judith Levy
Yes, but it remains to be seen how Syria will shake out.
Of course, the key will be (as ever) the army. Enough of the Syrian army is still in Assad's corner that we're not going to see him thrown to the wolves....
He's also got the religious minorities on his side -- who are terrified of a Sunni future. Druze, Shiites, Alawi, Yazadis, Christians of a dozen varieties, and the one or two remaining Jews.
And the Kurds. They've seen Sunni love up close, more than once.
And the wealthy (Sunni) urban elite. They do well.
And anyone who has ever worked for the regime or been a Ba'th party member. They don't want to die should payback time come.
They'd likely win in a free election.
Edited on Jun 15, 2011 at 10:00amApr '11
Re: Israel, Doing Better--a Lot Better--Than I'd Thought
Though demography isn't destiny, it certainly is nice to have on your side. Thanks for this Judith.
Judith Levy
Not necessarily. Have a look at this. · Jun 15 at 3:01am