Is There an "Obama Effect" on Crime?
Intrepid editor Diane Ellis sent along this bit of comedy from Slate, a site not on my list of favorites. “Is There an ‘Obama Effect’ on Crime?” asks writer James Verini, perplexed at the continuing decline in crime despite a sour economy.
Verini writes:
One unlikely explanation that is gaining credence among experts, including some of the biggest names in the field, is a phenomenon tentatively dubbed “the Obama Effect.” Simply put, it holds that the election of the first black president has provided such collective inspiration that it has changed the thinking or behavior of would-be or one-time criminals. The effect is not yet quantifiable, but some very numbers-driven researchers believe it may exist.
Like I said, comedy.
Later in the piece there’s this gem:
But some criminologists believe that those like Roth and Anderson who theorize about an Obama effect are letting their joy at his election affect their research. “We project our feelings,” Franklin Zimring told me. “A lot of us never felt more wonderful in our lives than on election night in 2008. So it’s a projection technique. It’s sort of a Rorschach test for creative social scientists. Is it possible there’s on Obama effect on crime? Yes. Is there a way of testing it on American crime data? Probably not.”
I would view with a heavy skepticism the opinions of anyone who describes the election of a president – any president, but certainly the current one – as inspiring such euphoria.
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Aug '10
Re: Is There an "Obama Effect" on Crime?
Another funny thing is how the article takes for granted that, ceteris paribus, a recession should lead to a crime wave. This simply isn't true.
Dec '10
Re: Is There an "Obama Effect" on Crime?
Who needs to commit a crime when the Government will do all the thieving for you.
Jul '10
Re: Is There an "Obama Effect" on Crime?
Well, perhaps because in Obama's America, after the take over of the auto industry, socializing medicine, Freddie and Fannie, the trillion "stimulus".... there's less to steal.
Jun '10
Re: Is There an "Obama Effect" on Crime?
It's probably just harder to get away with crime. I'd attribute that to the ubiquitous security camera. Look at all the holdup videos you see on TV. The videos are everywhere because every little hole-in-the-wall store has a security camera running. And if they don't have one (that's working,) there's sometimes an outdoor camera a block away in every direction, to record the kind of car you left the scene in. And police communicate better across jurisdictions. It's also much faster to process fingerprint and ballistics matches than it ever was before. Police productivity is way up.
Sep '10
Re: Is There an "Obama Effect" on Crime?
Sadly, (or not, depending your perspective) I believe this can partly be traced to the Roe V. Wade decision of 1973. Freakonomics economist/statistician Steven Levitt pretty much made the case for this already for the 1990s. His data is pretty compelling and sad really.
He now attributes it possibly to changes in the drug market.
Edited on Oct 7, 2011 at 2:59pmMay '10
Re: Is There an "Obama Effect" on Crime?
I can't think of how any econometrician could even begin to control for the thesaurus of variables influencing criminal activity and prove that the election of Obama is the decisive causal agent behind the decline in criminality.
Dec '10
Re: Is There an "Obama Effect" on Crime?
Couldn't possibly be More (legal) Guns, Less Crime.
Jun '10
Re: Is There an "Obama Effect" on Crime?
I think he's had a much greater impact of the development of ulcers and more cases of chronic depression.
Feb '11
Re: Is There an "Obama Effect" on Crime?
Jack, what to you think is the cause of the decline in crime? Or is the reported decline not true?
Mar '11
Re: Is There an "Obama Effect" on Crime?
This lends credence to my theory that any article containing the phrase "among experts" should immediately be placed in the circular file.
May '10
Re: Is There an "Obama Effect" on Crime?
Who put the climate scientists in charge of criminology?
The "Obama Effect" is nothing more than a plug variable, explained here by Warren Meyer on his excellent Climate Skeptic blog:
In other words, the climate scientists "know" their models are right, but the models don't reflect reality. So they tweak the aerosol levels to what they "must" have been to truthify their models.
Similarly, criminologists "know" recessions cause crime, so they use the ad hoc Obama Effect to rescue their theory from uncooperative facts.
Edited on Oct 7, 2011 at 4:25pmMar '11
Re: Is There an "Obama Effect" on Crime?
Perhaps the "Obama Effect" is that the election of a Mugger in Chief has made potential victims more careful. I believe gun sales increased dramatically when the One was elected and have not slowed down.
"Fast and Furious" was an obvious pander to Obama's, and Holder's, constituency.
Jun '10
Re: Is There an "Obama Effect" on Crime?
Posted without comment:
Quotation from my style guide.
Edited on Oct 7, 2011 at 8:15pmJul '10
Re: Is There an "Obama Effect" on Crime?
A decline has been on the books since well before the Obama Administration for the same reason that the entitlements are crashing and bankrupt. Fewer young people. Not many geriatric types are out there committing property crimes or crimes of violence.
Which does not mean the reduction is being seen everywhere. Invasion has skewed the demographics the other way in some areas.
Jul '10
Re: Is There an "Obama Effect" on Crime?
This reminds me: shortly before the 2008 election, I was waiting in the processing line at the County Jail with a prisoner. One of the other prisoners looked around in disgust and said to another, "All this [expletive] gonna change when Obama becomes President."
He was partially right - between then and now, the County Jail built and opened a new processing area.
Still, I wonder how he feels now.
Re: Is There an "Obama Effect" on Crime?
Ever the contrarian, I don't dismiss the possibility.
Don't we as conservatives often hold the position that people as examples can inspire? Is that not why we maintain good examples for our children and hope that they will admire certain individuals over others?
Did Reagan not inspire? Did that inspiration not affect the thinking and judgment of those he inspired?
I have no doubt that to those who can't see past his skin color, President Obama can be an inspirational figure for them.
I'll go further: I hope the "Obama Effect" on crime is true. If the election of Obama caused some to abandon crime, while I find that wouldn't outweigh the considerable damage the President is doing to the country, I certainly have no reason to object to the silver lining on that cloud.
Do any of you hope it is not true?
Edited on Oct 8, 2011 at 7:56amJul '10
Re: Is There an "Obama Effect" on Crime?
Tommy De Seno:
Do any of you hope it is not true? · Oct 8 at 7:20am
It's more like hoping it isn't accepted as true when it is in fact not true.
There's a difference between inspiring people, and inspiring people to the point that it has significant impact on national crime rates.
Also, let the irony be noted, that if any conservative made this argument, it would immediately be denounced as racist.
Re: Is There an "Obama Effect" on Crime?
Wylee Coyote
Tommy De Seno:
Do any of you hope it is not true? · Oct 8 at 7:20am
It's more like hoping it isn't accepted as true when it is in fact not true.
There's a difference between inspiring people, and inspiring people to the point that it has significant impact on national crime rates.
Also, let the irony be noted, that if any conservative made this argument, it would immediately be denounced as racist. · Oct 8 at 8:22am
I see your point on the lack of proof of an Obama effect.
Can you expand your argument that it is disproven?
Jul '10
Re: Is There an "Obama Effect" on Crime?
Tommy De Seno I see your point on the lack of proof of an Obama effect.
Can you expand your argument that it is disproven? · Oct 8 at 8:55am
Well, no, because I don't mean to make that argument. Looking back at my post, what I should have written was, "It's more like hoping it isn't accepted as true if it is in fact not true." I didn't mean to dismiss it as disproved.
Basically, I can't prove it isn't true, but it seems highly fanciful, and for that reason it shouldn't be accepted as truth without some serious evidence, of which there currently appears to be none.
Re: Is There an "Obama Effect" on Crime?
Cas Balicki: Posted without comment:
Quotation from my style guide. · Oct 7 at 8:13pm
Edited on Oct 07 at 08:15 pm
Posted without comment:
pedant, n
2. A person who overstates book-learning or technical knowledge, or displays it unduly or unreasonably; one who has mere learning untempered by practical judgement and knowledge of affairs; one who lays excessive stress upon trifling details of knowledge or upon strict adherence to formal rules; sometimes, one who is possessed by a theory and insists on applying it in all cases without discrimination, a doctrinaire.
Quotation from the OED.