Is The Newt Bubble Bursting?
Pollster Scott Rasmussen, who I had the pleasure of meeting last week on The Weekly Standard cruise, has a new survey showing that support for Newt Gingrich has fallen dramatically in Iowa. He still has support from 20 percent of likely Republican caucusers but that's down from 32 percent last month.
Romney leads with 23 percent, Ron Paul comes behind with 18 percent, Rick Perry has 10 percent, Michele Bachmann has 9 percent, Rick Santorum has 6 percent and Jon Huntsman comes in with 5 percent. Some 10 percent are undecided and 40 percent aren't committed to their votes.
Byron York reports:
In the new survey, every candidate but Gingrich gained support in the last few weeks. The biggest gainers were Romney, up four points; Paul, up eight points; and Perry, up four points. Michele Bachmann climbed three points, as did Jon Huntsman, who has been to Iowa a grand total of one time in the campaign.
Gingrich, on the other hand, fell 12 points.
"This is the fifth consecutive monthly poll with a new leader," Rasmussen says in an email. "It was Bachmann in August, then Perry, Cain, and Gingrich. Amidst all the volatility, Romney's numbers have held steady each month, and Ron Paul has been in double digits each month."
I'm just as intrigued by the Paul gains as the Gingrich falls. So what's the plan? What's the strategy here for Romney supporters and those who are not Romney supporters?
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Dec '11
Re: Is The Newt Bubble Bursting?
Its because we are just disqualifying candidates and alienating voters, so the political arsonist candidate, for the people continually disaffected by the nastiness and obnoxiousness, is getting the support.
Apparently we have no good candidates, so screw it burn it all down. There is the reason why.
The 2012 election is already lost, and its the long daggers of our punditry and party operation that cannot convince a good candidate to run. Romney is not going to be the nominee (if somehow he does become the nominee, he cant win the general), a man so nearly entirely and resounding rejected for 5 years at this point, who is demonstrated to be brittle, nasty, and feckless, cannot win anything.
Take Mitch Daniels' family hostage until he gets in the race, I dont know. 2012 is already lost. Thanks a lot.
Edited on Dec 15, 2011 at 6:21amJul '10
Re: Is The Newt Bubble Bursting?
So placing second in one poll despite the attacks from the establishment, with no big endorsements or huge organization is a loss?
I would say the opposite: Why has the guy who has been campaigning in Iowa for the past six years not eclipsed his numbers from the last voting cycle?
Script: flipped.
Re: Is The Newt Bubble Bursting?
Who knows? Everyone is piling on against Gingrich, and Andrew Sullivan has endorsed Ron Paul (which of these two is the more unbalanced . . . now that would be an interesting subject for debate). What is clear is that the situation is volatile. The next debate could make a real difference. Nearly everyone will pile on Gingrich. If he parries the attacks with good humor and elicits from Romney something that is self-destructive, he may soar again.
This is America. Anything can happen.
Re: Is The Newt Bubble Bursting?
Michael Tee: So placing second in one poll despite the attacks from the establishment, with no big endorsements or huge organization is a loss?
I would say the opposite: Why has the guy who has been campaigning in Iowa for the past six years not eclipsed his numbers from the last voting cycle?
Script: flipped. · Dec 15 at 6:13am
Well, all I see when I see Romney's numbers is a failure to capture support. With the amount of money, time and energy he's devoted, he should have this completely wrapped up. That he hasn't -- particularly given the alternatives -- is a huge indictment of his work as a candidate. And I say that as someone who supported Romney last time around.
But if he wins, he wins. If he wins Iowa and wins in New Hampshire, that would be significant. Of course, if he did that, I could imagine it being bad for him -- everyone in the subsequent states might just unite against him ...
Jul '10
Re: Is The Newt Bubble Bursting?
Mollie Hemingway, Ed.
Well, all I see when I see Romney's numbers is a failure to capture support. With the amount of money, time and energy he's devoted, he should have this completely wrapped up. That he hasn't -- particularly given the alternatives -- is a huge indictment of his work as a candidate. And I say that as someone who supported Romney last time around.
But if he wins, he wins. If he wins Iowa and wins in New Hampshire, that would be significant. I could imagine it being bad for him -- everyone in the subsequent states might just unite against him
PPP had Romney in 3rd yesterday behind Paul. I didn't see any articles suggesting that his bubble was bursting. Is that because it already burst?
That said, I agree that SC could be Romney's Waterloo. But no one in the MSM* or the editorial boards of National Review or the Weekly Standard will fight him like they've fought against Perry, Bachmann, et al.
But if Romney is the nominee, it will be hard for folks like me to pull the lever for him in the general.
*Until the general election.
Jun '10
Re: Is The Newt Bubble Bursting?
It doesn't surprise me. What would surprise me is Romney gaining significantly from Newt's fall. That would surprise me.
Aug '11
Re: Is The Newt Bubble Bursting?
The circular firing squad has had pretty good aim this election cycle.
Jul '10
Re: Is The Newt Bubble Bursting?
Just one more question Mollie: You say you were on the Weekly Standard cruise.
Among the cruise-goers, who was the favorite candidate?
I know what Stephen Hayes said...
Feb '11
Re: Is The Newt Bubble Bursting?
As a political junkie and citizen, I'm becoming so disgusting, so utterly disgusted, that I am tempted to give into my inner demons and start supporting Ron Paul (I can't believe I'm writing this), but I agree, none of these jokers will do a DARNED thing to save the Republic, none of the better choices wanted to run - so burn the barn down and let's start over again. More and more young people who lean right, and even older folks, who care about such things, are starting to echo this sentiment, we've had it!
Really, I'm in the midst of my final exams, in my last semester of my graduate work, so with only 3 hours sleep and three quarts of Scottish breakfast tea in me, I'm sure I'll regret thinking, let alone writing this tomorrow, but right now, I've had it with the pundits and the party, let's just elect Ron Paul and start over - not that he'd even come close to ousting Obama, but that's different how from the other yahoo's on the stage at this point...now back to my other work...grumble, grumble...
Jul '10
Re: Is The Newt Bubble Bursting?
Paul was the main beneficiary, which is understandable given his big ad buy there criticizing Newt.
Romney gained 4 points, which actually gives him the lead.
Edited on Dec 15, 2011 at 6:35amMay '10
Re: Is The Newt Bubble Bursting?
Honestly, I'm rather pleased. Keeping those 3 jokers tightly bunched at around 20% each keeps the pipe dream of a brokered convention within the realm of possibility.
Which is, of course, The Plan.
Jul '10
Re: Is The Newt Bubble Bursting?
One last thing. My political science major polling course is coming back to me.
In 2008 the RCP average had
29.7 Huckabee
26.7 Romney
11.8 McCain
11.7 Thompson
7.3 Paul
6.0 Giuliani
The final poll:
34 Huckabee
25 Romney
13 McCain
13 Thompson
10 Paul
4 Giuliani
Huckabee got more than half of the undecideds.
The only major candidate who did worse than the predictions: Romney.
He lost 2 points while Huckabee gained 4, McCain and Thompson gained 1.
Re: Is The Newt Bubble Bursting?
Michael Tee: Just one more question Mollie: You say you were on the Weekly Standard cruise.
Among the cruise-goers, who was the favorite candidate?
I know what Stephen Hayes said... · Dec 15 at 6:34am
There was an official poll that I think had Gingrich around 55% and Romney around 35% and the rest going to other candidates. I might be way off on those numbers because I heard them secondhand. On the other hand, I heard Bill Kristol on Fox affirm that Gingrich won the poll. And that matched what people told me. Each night at dinner I asked folks who they supported. Most for Gingrich, then a sizeable minority for Romney. Almost none for anyone else. Everyone wanted Mitch Daniels or Paul Ryan (a few mentions for Chris Christie) -- and a brokered convention. But people also said they'd support whoever got the nomination ...
Dec '10
Re: Is The Newt Bubble Bursting?
Guruforhire: 2012 is already lost. · Dec 15 at 6:07am
Edited on Dec 15 at 06:21 am
I'm going to go out on a limb here, keeping in mind that my ability to predict political outcomes this far out is terrible (back in late 2007, I publicly predicted that Romney and Clinton would be the nominees). I think that, barring some gangbusters economic recovery in early 2012, this election is already won. While we might cringe over the oft repeated flaws of Gingrich, Romney, and Perry (the three likely nominees, I think), the general voting public will probably find the nominee acceptable after watching his carefully crafted acceptance speech.
Of course, now I've jinxed the whole thing.
Nov '11
Re: Is The Newt Bubble Bursting?
According to realclearpolitics.com, their previous poll results have been the following:
Gingrich +10, Gingrich +1, Gingrich +10, Gingrich +14, Gingrich +13, Gingrich +9, Gingrich +15, Gingrich +7, Gingrich +8, Gingrich +15, Gingrich +13, Cain +1, Cain +1, Cain +4, Cain +5, Cain +15, Cain +1, Romney +3, Cain +7, Cain +10, Cain +8, Cain +8, Romney +6, Perry +11, Perry +2, Perry +3, Bachmann +1, Bachmann +13, Bachmann +3, Bachmann +4.
Isn't this like when a liberal points out the latest obscure poll that shows that the American people support Obamacare, and I have to point out the previous poll results have been Oppose +20, Oppose +16, Oppose +13, Oppose +6, Oppose +18, Oppose +5, Oppose +15, Oppose +16, Oppose +12, Oppose +20, Oppose +21, Oppose +20, Oppose +17, Oppose +14, Oppose +14, Oppose +16, Oppose +21, Oppose +15, Oppose +13, Oppose +14, Oppose +17, Oppose +10, Oppose +11, Oppose +19, Oppose +17, Oppose +11, Oppose +15, Oppose +10, Oppose +8, Oppose +17, Oppose +7, Oppose +21, Oppose +5, Oppose +13, Oppose +11, Oppose +10, Oppose +15, Oppose +22, Oppose +11, Favor +2...
Re: Is The Newt Bubble Bursting?
Michael Tee
PPP had Romney in 3rd yesterday behind Paul. I didn't see any articles suggesting that his bubble was bursting. Is that because it already burst?
Right -- he's never bubbled. He's always been at a flatline of like 25% support give or take. No matter what he does, it stays right around there. That, too me, is a big problem for him.
Sep '10
Re: Is The Newt Bubble Bursting?
Mitt's poured enough money into running the last 5 years that -- forget RomneyCare -- he's running his own version of TARP, and he's got about as much to show for it.
Sep '10
Re: Is The Newt Bubble Bursting?
(And that is *not* me in the picture with Newt)
Sep '10
Re: Is The Newt Bubble Bursting?
Just curious. How do the pundits explain their distance from the voters? They're about 77% for Romney and we're at 23%. Are George Will and Ann Coulter asking, "What's the matter with Kansas?"
Edited on Dec 15, 2011 at 8:48amJul '10
Re: Is The Newt Bubble Bursting?
I'm going to have a post on this later on, which was spurred on by Iowahawk's tweet:
Substitute "Establishment Conservative" for "GOP Candidate" and you'll see that your point is well taken.