Is Shai Agassi Right? Is the Electric Car the Solution to the Oil Problem?
Perhaps this is going to go down in history as the biggest wasted opportunity of my journalistic career.
One of the meetings Act for Israel arranged for us was with Shai Agassi at A Better Place.
Unfortunately for Ricochet, I had no idea who Shai Agassi was, and because they packed our schedule with so many meetings with people whose significance I did appreciate--like the prime minister's spokesman--I didn't do any research before meeting him.
I didn't even look him up on Google. In fact, I walked in there furious, because the meeting took place during Ricochet's time--my editorial hours. I'd demanded free time and Internet access so that I could keep vigil over Ricochet and immediately stamp out any hint of an affront to the Code of Conduct--my sacred duty! Instead they stuck me in a conference room with some lunatic Israeli motormouth who was gibbering on about electric cars. So I was fit to be tied.
Anyway, I didn't realize that an audience with Shai Agassi is a very big deal and an astonishing thing to have arranged. I only understood this afterwards when people said, "You met Shai Agassi? How?"
I walked in late--having been endeavoring without success to hack on to A Better Place's wireless network in the ladies' room--and looking sour. I sat down in the back and said to our guide, "Who's that?" figuring he was just some PR flack. And even when she said, in a hushed, reverential way, "It's him," I had no idea I was in the presence of a man revered in Israel as a demi-god.
Now, here's the thing: I still haven't had time to really study this. He gave us the whole spiel about his electric cars, and definitely it was a smooth, compelling pitch. But I didn't know enough about it to ask the right follow-up questions, and I still haven't had time to do enough research to know whether this is as big a deal as he thinks it is.
I have this gut instinct that there's a catch here, and that somehow it involves getting the government much more involved in re-engineering the economy, or trying to re-engineer it, than can ever be a good idea. But I may be completely wrong about this.
I don't want to be the journalist who looked at the prototype iPhone and sniffed, "It will never work." (My father tells the story of touring Xerox Park some many years ago and seeing the world's first mouse. "Yeah," they said to him, "We're not sure what it will be good for, but it's kind of cool.")
I asked Shai if I could film him. He said no, it's all on the Internet anyway, and he'd be more relaxed if I didn't. He's right, it's all on the Internet.
So you tell me: Have a look at the videos I'm posting. Is this the solution to the West's oil dependency problem? Could it work?
If it doesn't seem bogus to you, maybe I'll try to reach him again and get a better sense of what he's doing. Or maybe I'll just kick myself forever for not having understood what I was looking at.
Oh, and I didn't get to drive it. Why not? Because I didn't bring my driver's license. It just didn't occur to me that I'd end up in a situation where I'd need it. But everyone else who drove it said it was a great ride. Here's Tim Mak's report.
So what's the catch, if any?
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Comments :
Jun '10
Re: Is Shai Agassi Right? Is the Electric Car the Solution to the Oil Problem?
Claire, you are typing two hyphens as in "--" when you want to type the long dash as in "—". The result is that when the software inserts a line break it splits the two hyphens as '-
-". This occurs on the home page in the first paragraph of this article. Its no big deal, but to type a long dash hold down the "Alt" key and then type the number "0151" (excluding quotation marks) on the number pad of the keyboard. What you get is "—" instead of "--" and no split on line breaks. But you must type the "0151" on the number pad, not on the numbers on above the "QWERTY" keys.
Re: Is Shai Agassi Right? Is the Electric Car the Solution to the Oil Problem?
Thanks! I'll improve.
Jun '10
Re: Is Shai Agassi Right? Is the Electric Car the Solution to the Oil Problem?
I almost forgot, to get an ellipses do not type three periods as in '.
.. ' because you end up with an ellipses broken by a line break as in the preceding example. Instead hold down the "Alt" key and type "0133". What you get is … when you let up the alt key. If you try to move the cursor into the ellipses so created, you cannot make the cursor stop within the ellipses so it will break either before or after, but not in the middle, of the ellipses. Again not big deal, but it does make for a neater looking post. Oh, personally, I don't care whether or not you follow these suggestions, I only posted this to help should you care.
Dec '10
Re: Is Shai Agassi Right? Is the Electric Car the Solution to the Oil Problem?
At 2:20 into the second video, he tells me pretty much everything I need to know about the technology.
"In Denmark they have the Ultimate Tax plan. If you buy the electric, no tax. If you buy the petrol car, 180% tax."
Translation, we cannot compete on the merits, therefore we need the government to mandate that all other cars cost twice as much.
Brilliant marketing plan, if you can buy enough politicians.
Basically, they're selling it as the next revolution in transportation (as though the electric automobile wasn't invented circa 1910).
Interspersed in the last feel good video, they talk about infrastructure that they're going to build, including automated battery swap stations and charging spots, which is all well and good.
However, the part that really struck me, was the "EV Network", which "manages energy access".
See, to me, that sounds an awful lot like monitored energy usage (AKA energy rationing, AKA you drive if, when, and how your betters allow you to).
Continued . . .
Dec '10
Re: Is Shai Agassi Right? Is the Electric Car the Solution to the Oil Problem?
But none of those glossy words (AKA male bovine excrement) give us any hints of:
1) Where the money to build this extensive network of complex and maintenance intensive infrastructure is going to come from. (I'm pretty sure he's assuming that government is going to pay for it, or do like LA and Chicago are wanting to, mandate that land owners, both residential and commercial, install charging stations for public use, at their own expense.)
2) Where the generating capacity to provide all this new electrical power is going to come from. They talk about renewable energy sources for charging, but you could pave the whole country with solar panels and cover the coastlines with wind turbines (both, assuming an endless supply of money), and still not provide the amount of energy necessary to transition the entire existing vehicle fleet to electric. That power has to come from somewhere.
3) Where the money to provide all the "incentives" necessary to create a market for these cars is going to come from. Electric cars are not a new idea. If they were cheaper/easier/better than IC engine cars, the market would have transitioned to them decades ago. The electric car has been around for over a hundred years. If there was much merit to the idea, it would have made it's big splash by now.
Continued . . .
Edited on Mar 21, 2011 at 2:52amDec '10
Re: Is Shai Agassi Right? Is the Electric Car the Solution to the Oil Problem?
It is obvious from listening to the man, that he's a central planner. He and his young smart global thinkers got together and decided that what mankind really needed was to be forced to drive wind turbine charged EV cars.
Then they started to lobby the government into mandating that idea into reality.
When an engineer sets down and really figures out how (if it's even possible) to build an electric car that makes sense from an economic standpoint, and presents the data in a straightforward manner, using methods of implementation that don't rely on taxes (or tax type schemes), government mandates or coercion of any kind, incentives, refunds, vouchers, or any other code word for subsidies, I might be persuaded to get on the EV bandwagon.
Until that time, however, I shall continue to simply say, "Horsefeathers!", and continue with my life.
This EV scam is the same as the last three EV scams, but with slightly slicker marketing. I especially like the robot hot swap battery station idea. The only way that works, is if every single EV car ever produced uses the same battery, that mounts in the same location in every car, and which is secured in said car in exactly the same robot manipulation friendly manner. Nevermind how they're gonna deal with leaving an industrial robot unattended to interact with the public (Pro tTip: Industrial robots can and will smush you flat if you get in their way. In a society that needs warning labels on coffee cups, how's that gonna work?)
As I said before, Horsefeathers!
Edited on Mar 21, 2011 at 2:57amDec '10
Re: Is Shai Agassi Right? Is the Electric Car the Solution to the Oil Problem?
I hate to be such a meanie, pointing out reality and all, but I didn't actually detect a single piece of actual data about why their idea is good. Not a single bullet point about their plans, not one verifiable fact, nada.
They say it's good, and we're supposed to just take their word for it, I guess.
God save us from the idea people.
It's easy to have ideas.
Like, wouldn't it be great if we could just bottle the energy from the sun for later use?
See!?! I just saved humanity right there. The sun shines all the time, even at night, if you get up in the air far enough. We'll just bottle it and be saved.
My idea has the exact same amount of planning and realism built into it as theirs does.
Now I all I need to do is get the government to force people to do what I say, and we'll be golden. . .
Oct '10
Re: Is Shai Agassi Right? Is the Electric Car the Solution to the Oil Problem?
Let's start a sub-thread about which character in Atlas Shrugged is closest to Shai Agassi.
Don Luskin might make such an addition for the paperback edition of I Am John Galt, which will debut April 15, the same day as the movie version of Atlas.
Dec '10
Re: Is Shai Agassi Right? Is the Electric Car the Solution to the Oil Problem?
As Coolhand points out, the primary flaw is the source for the electricity. In France, that's %70 plus nuclear; in the U.S. @ %22. Nearly all of the rest is fossil fuel, plus a bit less than %2 "renewables". Electric cars are not running on renewables.
Second, our electric transmission grids are already strained, as are our electric generators (regardless of energy source). Transitioning transportation to electric will add hugely to the demand for electric generation and transmission. We have a hard enough time building generating stations, as it is. Building transmission lines to move the electricity from source to customer is very close to impossible.
Third, I like their concept of essentially leasing the batteries, but the batteries themselves are a big issue. They are very expensive to make and use rare and costly resources in their manufacture. I have seen studies that analyzed the economics of using those rare materials for transportation and they look pretty bad. The economics work out well for small devices, such as phones and laptops, but poorly for transportation.
In short, we need a revolution in batteries, made from common and inexpensive materials, plus we need to solve generation and transmssion issues.
Jul '10
Re: Is Shai Agassi Right? Is the Electric Car the Solution to the Oil Problem?
In that second video, He consistently says "wrong car."
Well, His message of social engineering through taxation has got Marxism written all over Him.
Also, We don't have an "oil dependency problem," We have a problem with people keeping Us from drilling.
May '10
Re: Is Shai Agassi Right? Is the Electric Car the Solution to the Oil Problem?
For me, an electric would be a plausible option for a third vehicle. Since I can afford one vehicle, which must necessarily be a pick-up truck, what I'm talking about is conspicuous consumption. I haven't seen the affordable electric that can get me to and from the nearest grocery store (100 miles.) What we are talking about, then, is subsidizing the vanities of urban liberals. But hey, that's what we do through the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.
Re: Is Shai Agassi Right? Is the Electric Car the Solution to the Oil Problem?
I love Ricochet. I wish I'd mentioned this before the meeting; I would have had exactly the questions in hand I now wish I'd asked.
Edited on Mar 21, 2011 at 5:44amFeb '11
Re: Is Shai Agassi Right? Is the Electric Car the Solution to the Oil Problem?
Source of the electricity: All fossil fuels are not equal. Electricity can be (and is) generate from natural gas and coal, two fuels which are in considerably greater supply in the US than is oil. The first is possible but cumbersome to use for vehicles; the second isn't really feasible at all. So in principle, electric cars would be "omniverous" in that the electricity to power them could come from any of multiple sources.
BUT....The big problem is battery technology. People have been working on improving the storage battery for over a century, and there have been strong financial incentives to do so. But the amount of energy that can be stored in a battery per unit of weight & size is still vastly inferior to the amount that can be stored in a comparable tank of gasoline or diesel fuel. Plus, the things are expensive, have very finite life, and do have environmental problems associated with their manufacture, and their performance is very sensitive to temperature.
Pure-electric vehicles probably make sense for certain local delivery vehicles and maybe for people with very short commutes, but for general automotive use, I think not.
May '10
Re: Is Shai Agassi Right? Is the Electric Car the Solution to the Oil Problem?
For small densely populated countries like Israel and some European countries, maybe. Maybe. But not here.
Also, nuclear power would have to be used on a much grander scale to accommodate the greater demand for electricity, which is now unlikely due to the hyperventilation (unjustified though it is) over Japan.
Oct '10
Re: Is Shai Agassi Right? Is the Electric Car the Solution to the Oil Problem?
And those batteries. They use lithium as their major component. Some estimates put 50% of the world's known lithium supplies in Bolivia and Peru. And we think Saudi Arabia is unstable?? Try the world supply of lithium in the hands of communist guerrillas.
It is a real chore to find any good news in the idea of an electric car. But, I guess since so many people in the Western world have bought into the global warming scam, electric car marketing reminiscent of the 1950's Disney nuclear powered car fairy tale is a natural next step.
Does AlGore sell these things??
Jul '10
Re: Is Shai Agassi Right? Is the Electric Car the Solution to the Oil Problem?
This is the future.
Mar '11
Re: Is Shai Agassi Right? Is the Electric Car the Solution to the Oil Problem?
At this point in their technological development, I view the electric car as the equivalent of those curly fluorescent lightbulbs. Both are built in China and the Pacific Rim with very nasty toxins that are then flushed into the environment under their extremely lax safety regulations. Both the bulbs and the batteries are impossible to dispose of in a safe cheap way in the first world, so they will inevitably be shipped to China and the Pacific Rim... where, again, they will be dumped into the environment. The irony, of course, is that the first part of the US to feel the impact of this pollution will be California because of the same air currents that are panicking people about radiation right now. We really do need another source of fuel than gas, but right now, the electric car isn't it. The only solution that I can see, as much as some people hate to hear it, is to allow technology to continue to improve. Also, improve the US power grid and general infrastructure, but that's just a good idea in general.
Oct '10
Re: Is Shai Agassi Right? Is the Electric Car the Solution to the Oil Problem?
Fuel cells have much of the same problems as do batteries. Massive amounts of electricity are required to separate the hydrogen and oxygen components. Again, we are looking for a solution for a problem we do not have. We keep forgetting the major issue... over 60% of the oil used in the world is for transportation. Converting oil to energy outside the internal combustion engine is a vast undertaking, requiring immense resources we simply do not have. And to solve what problem?
Mar '11
Re: Is Shai Agassi Right? Is the Electric Car the Solution to the Oil Problem?
Michael Tee: This is the future. · Mar 21 at 6:03am
Did you see the Top Gear where James May drove that? They need to make that segment the commercial.
May '10
Re: Is Shai Agassi Right? Is the Electric Car the Solution to the Oil Problem?
Sorry to nitpick again, especially late in the thread, but I believe the clever fellows with the mouse (as well as a lot of the graphical user interface components we now use) were at Xerox Palo Alto Research Center, or PARC, rather than "park".