Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
The Atlantic's Molly Ball writes about the surprising position Mitt Romney is in. He's the likely nominee and continues to rack up delegates but he still hasn't closed the deal. Some people blame Romney for the situation -- his gaffes, his lack of intrinsic appeal to the conservative and religious base of his party, his inability to connect with ordinary people.
But the article focuses on the increasing speculation that Romney "has been ill served by his confident, well-paid team of advisers."
Describing them as "myopic, insular and overconfident," Ball quotes people who say the advisers have squandered their candidate's strengths and exacerbated his weaknesses:
They point to specific strategic miscues: the failure to cultivate low-dollar donors; a lack of outreach to the conservative movement and the media generally; and the fateful decision to overlook the Feb. 7 contests in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri, where surprise wins for Rick Santorum catapulted him back into contention as Romney's principal challenger. The campaign has also repeatedly signaled that it's expecting the next primary to deal a knockout blow, only to be rebuked by too-close-for-comfort wins (Michigan and Ohio) or humbling defeats like this week's third-place finishes in Alabama and Mississippi.
These critics, many or all of whom are Romney fans who want him to win the nomination and the general election, say that the campaign runs a terrific and tight ship when it comes to tactical stuff -- negative ads, robocalls and the like. But messaging is a problem.
I don't agree with everything in the article. For instance, I actually liked the way Romney got a little bit testy about his personal wealth during an interview on Fox earlier this week but it's treated as if it were a gaffe.
The consultant said none of Romney's current difficulties should have come as a surprise. "What part of this could they not have anticipated? That the conservative base wasn't going to love him? That he was going to get attacked for his wealth?" the consultant said. "He has let these guys [his opponents] back in the building a couple of different times. And it's not like he's beating the varsity."
Keith Appell, a Republican communications strategist who worked on Steve Forbes' 2000 presidential campaign, agreed: "It's surprising and troubling that Romney is having so much difficulty against men who are good candidates, but still second and third-tier," he said. "There is no Jeb Bush or Sarah Palin or Mike Huckabee or Chris Christie. I think they've run a very good tactical campaign, but I do think they woefully underestimated the conservative reservations about Romney."
Rick Wilson, a Florida-based media strategist, detected "a cultural bias among the top leadership of that campaign against the conservative base." One way this has been manifest, he said, was a notable lack of outreach to the conservative press. ...
"All of these little signifiers that would not have cost them a damn thing have added up and made things more difficult," he said. "They didn't even start going on Fox until they got in desperate trouble. Conservatives are going to be a vocal part of this election, and ignoring and belittling them is going to have negative consequences at the end of the day."
These critics say that the Romney team is clueless about the actual problems they face on certain issues, preferring to believe they don't exist or matter.
The article puts some of the blame on Romney surrounding himself with people who "share his businesslike world view" without an understanding of political leadership.
Meanwhile, the Romney campaign's message at this stage consists mostly of insisting that they're winning based on their advantage in terms of delegates. "They are making a huge mistake talking about math," Felkel said. "Joe Six-Pack doesn't give a damn about delegate counts."
Another outside-the-Beltway Republican operative echoed that argument: "It is the principal job of the Mitt Romney campaign to become the consensus nominee of the ideological base of the party, not to pile up 1,144 delegates," the operative said.
We learn that the Romney camp insists everything is fine and that this is all going according to plan. There is some frustration, but no sense of crisis. They repeat the claims about math and resist the idea of a staff shakeup because it would show weakness and sow chaos.
Not everyone is a critic. The article quotes a former top strategist to Rick Perry speaking well of how the Romney camp is doing under the circumstances.
Here's how it ends:
But many Republicans on the sidelines of the race feel the general election slipping between the party's fingers as they watch Romney continue to stumble.
"This was a campaign built around the notion that Mitt Romney was going to be the nominee because he was the inevitable candidate and the only guy who could beat Obama," another longtime Republican strategist said. "Then he started losing, and it was shattering to the electability argument -- 'If he's inevitable, why isn't he winning?'
"Now they're just in a war of attrition," the strategist added. "They didn't shut it down early, and now this is the campaign they have."
The whole article is really good, even if I don't agree with all of it. I am not entirely convinced that things are as bad as the article suggests.
But if you're scratching your head trying to figure out why Team Romney has managed this "inevitable" victory so poorly, it's a great and helpful read.
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Comments:
Feb '11
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
The problem with this is that the end process would result with this guy as candidate for President of the United States.
If money can solve a problem for the Romney campaign they're on it. So Newt got carpet-bombed and Romney is on the ballot everywhere. Woohoo.
The problem is like that old joke about dogfood: The best advertising campaign doesn't matter if the dogs won't eat it.
Romney should be rolling over political nullities like Rick "18 points" Santorum and poor crazy Newt.
He ain't. Worse, his establishment pals have had to play every trick in the book to get him this far against them.
That isn't a good sign about how well he would do an opponent with an actual campaign organization and some money.
You know- like the guy in the White House now.
May '10
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
This discussion reminds me of a story I heard about Chevy's failed effort to market the Nova in Latin America 30 or 40 years ago (it may be apocryphal but it's still apt). Chevy market tested the mess out of it, carefully planned every element of the rollout, and even tweaked the car a bit to appeal to the new market. After gobs and gobs of work, Chevy released the car to great fanfare. The company was completely flummoxed when its sales never took off. Chevy undertook another series of intense studies to determine why the Spanish speaking world turned its back on the Nova. Finally, after years of this pulling and tugging, someone finally realized that "no va" means "it doesn't go" in Spanish.
Apr '11
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
Doesn't this analogy, much like the "doesn't eat the dog food" analogy, rely on Mitt not being far in the lead?
May '10
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
Wait. Did anyone not expect Time to write this story, negative photo included? All that was unknown was the name of the writer. Newsweak will write the same story with a worse photo next week.
What a conceit to suppose that Romney is doing something wrong! Romneycare was supposed to kill his bid, then non-candidates who never ran, then Gov. Pawlenty, and then Gov. Perry, and then $10,000 bets, and then...
Also, he's not really any better than Obama.
Keep going!
May '10
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
James Of England
Doesn't this analogy, much like the "doesn't eat the dog food" analogy, rely on Mitt not being far in the lead? · 3 hours ago
Well, I didn't exactly post it as an analogy but while we're on the subject, I am pretty frustrated with the Romney campaign. He was my guy in '08, but this year his appeal reminds me of the marketing campaign for something like dish detergent - a product they know you have to buy but would just as soon not. I think he would be a fine president, a considerable improvement, but I guess I'm from a place where we expect our politicians to have some spunk. Maybe that's being unfair to him, but I don't think so.
Edited on March 17, 2012 at 3:45pmMay '10
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
Im the first to agree that the Romney campaign is grossly disappointing when it comes to grassroots contact [personal anecdotes omitted]. The only questions I have are whether this is calculated or not; and if calculated whether thie plan in to change this once the nomination is won. Why might it be calculated? Because the primaries are not a simultaneous, nationwide undertaking, and are perhaps best run as a tight, "top-down" operation, whereas the general will be, by necessity, more of a guerrilla war; well, that's my hope anyway. But again, Romney's biggest challenge was always going to be getting through the primaries; that he seems to be in the verge of winning suggests second-guessing him is naive. And arrogant.
May '10
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
James Of England
...............
Rove, Bush 41's employee and later 43's gubernatorial campaign manager, might be compared to Mike Murphy. It is not my impression that Romney's decision not to hire Murphy in this cycles' primaries was a bad one. I think it unlikely that there will be an equivalent to Dick Morris' 18 months of glory, but it is worth remembering that Morris was not involved with Clinton at this point.
Axelrod has a genuine talent; I'm not sure who a GOP equivalent would be.
On Romney's team, Beth Myers, Matt Rhoades, Peter Flaherty and Eric Fehrnstrom are extremely talented, but not showy. Romney values discretion and discipline heavily, so the campaign lacks divas; this is even more true this time around. · Mar 16 at 10:41am
I would say that Romney's Karl Rove (note spelling) is probably Stuart Stevens.
Mar '12
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
Romney's closing-the-deal problems have a more to do with changes in rules than with how he has run his campaign. In 2008, New York and California were part of Super Tuesday, and McCain ended that day with 707 delegates. Romney and Huckabee dropped shortly thereafter with no clear path.
Republicans didn't like that outcome and changed the 2012 rules stretch out the process, making the early races proportional and pushing the larger states to much later.
Against the expections set by prior nominating campaigns, Romney is "weak." Based on the new rules of the game, he's doing just fine.
May '10
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
A bit of perspective is needed here.
1) It is absolutely true that the "base" is not excited by Romney. In today's world, that is probably good- someone who is ecstatic at the idea of Michele Bachmann is not going to win electoral votes in Virginia and Florida.
2) Note the pattern of the race- Nick Stuart has it right. Every time Romney is looking like he is on the downhill run to wipe out the competitors, the evangelicals in the next state band together to get their people out to the caucuses or votes. It appears quite likely that the rationale is discomfort with Mormons. That occurred in Iowa, SC, Minnesota, and Colorado, as well as the latest round of AL and MS. That is their absolute right, but don't pretend it is because Newt and Rick are "more conservative".
3) I haven't seen Romney talk about delegate math at all, though I could have missed something. I have seen his people respond to Newt and Rick pronouncements about delegate math, and they also simply point out where the campaign goes after delegates instead of symbolic beauty contests.
May '10
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
To reinforce Writ Small, read this, it details the changes. Romney has actually run ahead of McCain.
I think that there are two places where the campaign has fallen short.
1) Caught flat-footed by the demands to release tax returns much earlier than is the custom, and by attacks on free markets and capitalism "from the right". There was surely a plan for this, but more for May in response to Obama than February in response to Gingrich.
2) They do seem to have a relative tin ear regarding Middle America working class voters. That would be solved by getting the right VP, that is, Rubio (the choice is so obvious it isn't even close).
Dec '11
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
I've truly grown weary of the descriptions of Romney as a "social engineer" and "progressive managerial."
The numbers on the personal resume- a $250 million dollar net worth- suggest one thing and one thing only- an entrepreneur.
Apr '11
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
EThompson
I've truly grown weary of the descriptions of Romney as a "social engineer" and "progressive managerial."
The numbers on the personal resume- a $250 million dollar net worth- suggest one thing and one thing only- an entrepreneur. · 3 hours ago
Prof. Rahe is trained in liberal arts and rhetoric, generally described by him as "first principles", not details, and values rhetoric, not details and hard work. The $250m comes from caring a lot about the details, although obviously those needed to be built on solid foundations.
May '10
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
Duane, this thread is likely over, but I can't let your insinuation of anti-Mormon bias in SC and other states go unchallenged. I hope you have some backup for that charge because I never saw it - explicitly or implied. My friend, I'm calling it bunk!
Feb '11
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
Duane Oyen: To reinforce Writ Small, read this, it details the changes. Romney has actually run ahead of McCain.
I think that there are two places where the campaign has fallen short.
1) Caught flat-footed by the demands to release tax returns much earlier than is the custom, and by attacks on free markets and capitalism "from the right". There was surely a plan for this, but more for May in response to Obama than February in response to Gingrich.
2) They do seem to have a relative tin ear regarding Middle America working class voters. That would be solved by getting the right VP, that is, Rubio (the choice is so obvious it isn't even close). · 17 hours ago
After all of the discussions we've had on this topic, are you really leaving out the main criticism: Romneycare? Or do you bury it under "attacks on free markets and capitalism" after the all-important tax return release controversy?
Feb '11
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
One of the things that grates about Romney supporters is the continual assertion that anyone who isn't a fan of him holds that opinion due to bad faith.
In this case it's assumed that the reason Romney lost certain elections is because of anti-Mormon bigotry.
I also consider that bunk, to be polite.
I note also that Romney supporters consider his false and disingenuous assertions about Santorum and Gingrich as a-ok but charges made against Romney are somehow far beyond the pale.
This is also bunk, to be polite.
If the Romney campaign wants support from the vast swarms of conservatives who haven't voted for him and don't really like him it should probably stop asserting that those people are stupid, vile bigots.
Just a suggestion, which I suspect the Romney camp will not heed.
Feb '11
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
EThompson
The numbers on the personal resume- a $250 million dollar net worth- suggest one thing and one thing only- an entrepreneur. ·
They suggest to me the energetic use of financial engineering and leverage of the sort that dumped trillions of Wall Street failure on to the public balance sheet.
But I suppose I'm making one of those beyond-the-pale attacks on capitalism, freedom, motherhood, and apple pie that the despicable ABRs are always making.
I don't care. I get the sense the that Romney believes I should be living in a cardboard box, because whatever my job is it cannot possibly be worth what I'm paid to do it here in the United States. I'm unjustly stealing that money from my corporate employer because my job theoretically would cost that entity less if done somewhere else.
I hope I'm just engaging in ABR perfidy. That what ABRs do, after all.
But considering my gut reaction to him and the bad feelings I've developed I've got a suspicion that he will be uniquely vulnerable nominee, thanks to his history.
We'll see.