Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
The Atlantic's Molly Ball writes about the surprising position Mitt Romney is in. He's the likely nominee and continues to rack up delegates but he still hasn't closed the deal. Some people blame Romney for the situation -- his gaffes, his lack of intrinsic appeal to the conservative and religious base of his party, his inability to connect with ordinary people.
But the article focuses on the increasing speculation that Romney "has been ill served by his confident, well-paid team of advisers."
Describing them as "myopic, insular and overconfident," Ball quotes people who say the advisers have squandered their candidate's strengths and exacerbated his weaknesses:
They point to specific strategic miscues: the failure to cultivate low-dollar donors; a lack of outreach to the conservative movement and the media generally; and the fateful decision to overlook the Feb. 7 contests in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri, where surprise wins for Rick Santorum catapulted him back into contention as Romney's principal challenger. The campaign has also repeatedly signaled that it's expecting the next primary to deal a knockout blow, only to be rebuked by too-close-for-comfort wins (Michigan and Ohio) or humbling defeats like this week's third-place finishes in Alabama and Mississippi.
These critics, many or all of whom are Romney fans who want him to win the nomination and the general election, say that the campaign runs a terrific and tight ship when it comes to tactical stuff -- negative ads, robocalls and the like. But messaging is a problem.
I don't agree with everything in the article. For instance, I actually liked the way Romney got a little bit testy about his personal wealth during an interview on Fox earlier this week but it's treated as if it were a gaffe.
The consultant said none of Romney's current difficulties should have come as a surprise. "What part of this could they not have anticipated? That the conservative base wasn't going to love him? That he was going to get attacked for his wealth?" the consultant said. "He has let these guys [his opponents] back in the building a couple of different times. And it's not like he's beating the varsity."
Keith Appell, a Republican communications strategist who worked on Steve Forbes' 2000 presidential campaign, agreed: "It's surprising and troubling that Romney is having so much difficulty against men who are good candidates, but still second and third-tier," he said. "There is no Jeb Bush or Sarah Palin or Mike Huckabee or Chris Christie. I think they've run a very good tactical campaign, but I do think they woefully underestimated the conservative reservations about Romney."
Rick Wilson, a Florida-based media strategist, detected "a cultural bias among the top leadership of that campaign against the conservative base." One way this has been manifest, he said, was a notable lack of outreach to the conservative press. ...
"All of these little signifiers that would not have cost them a damn thing have added up and made things more difficult," he said. "They didn't even start going on Fox until they got in desperate trouble. Conservatives are going to be a vocal part of this election, and ignoring and belittling them is going to have negative consequences at the end of the day."
These critics say that the Romney team is clueless about the actual problems they face on certain issues, preferring to believe they don't exist or matter.
The article puts some of the blame on Romney surrounding himself with people who "share his businesslike world view" without an understanding of political leadership.
Meanwhile, the Romney campaign's message at this stage consists mostly of insisting that they're winning based on their advantage in terms of delegates. "They are making a huge mistake talking about math," Felkel said. "Joe Six-Pack doesn't give a damn about delegate counts."
Another outside-the-Beltway Republican operative echoed that argument: "It is the principal job of the Mitt Romney campaign to become the consensus nominee of the ideological base of the party, not to pile up 1,144 delegates," the operative said.
We learn that the Romney camp insists everything is fine and that this is all going according to plan. There is some frustration, but no sense of crisis. They repeat the claims about math and resist the idea of a staff shakeup because it would show weakness and sow chaos.
Not everyone is a critic. The article quotes a former top strategist to Rick Perry speaking well of how the Romney camp is doing under the circumstances.
Here's how it ends:
But many Republicans on the sidelines of the race feel the general election slipping between the party's fingers as they watch Romney continue to stumble.
"This was a campaign built around the notion that Mitt Romney was going to be the nominee because he was the inevitable candidate and the only guy who could beat Obama," another longtime Republican strategist said. "Then he started losing, and it was shattering to the electability argument -- 'If he's inevitable, why isn't he winning?'
"Now they're just in a war of attrition," the strategist added. "They didn't shut it down early, and now this is the campaign they have."
The whole article is really good, even if I don't agree with all of it. I am not entirely convinced that things are as bad as the article suggests.
But if you're scratching your head trying to figure out why Team Romney has managed this "inevitable" victory so poorly, it's a great and helpful read.
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Comments:
Apr '11
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
The Romney campaign is very adept at winning votes, but lousy at winning support.
Without a doubt the massive Obama money/media machine will run a scorched earth jihad against the Republican nominee, with no line of attack considered outside the boundary of decency. Either Romney or Santorum could withstand the onslaught and win. But.
But a Romney presidency, without a core base of supporters will find it difficult to push the major reforms that are so desperately needed.
The rationale for Romney has been that the highest priority is defeating Obama in November.
It isn't.
The highest priority is restoring fiscal sanity and Constitutional restraints on Washington.
Defeating Obama is merely step one.
The Romney campaign can reach step one, but I'm not at all confident that it can help him reach step two, three, or four.
Oct '11
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
He's running his campaign so poorly that he's competing in every single congressional district in the country and in every American territory, and has gotten delegates in every contest so far, he's got more than twice as many delegates as Santorum. Yeah, he's running such a lousy campaign that he's winning by a mile.
Oct '11
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
"They drew up a plan; they are executing it flawlessly. But, in politics, one must be nimble, and the Romney campaign is about as nimble as an aircraft carrier."If they are executing the plan flawlessly, why do they need to be nimble? More importantly, how does their flawless execution of their plan prove that they aren't nimble? Being nimble is important when your plan falls apart.
Apr '11
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
This is a serious issue; complaints about strategy and tactics are defeated by looking at the results, but complaints about the future political capital of the President are less dismissible.
Romney's key problem here is that all of the Republican candidates promised to cut spending. There were various degrees of plausibility to the claims; Santorum's was, next to Romney's, the most plausible; Newt's may have been his most brazen lie of the campaign, with less truth than much of King of Bain.
Getting into the weeds of why the claims aren't true, though, is detailed, boring stuff; essentially impossible during an election. Rick and Newt's records of increasing spending and fighting cuts are over half a decade old, or almost a decade more than that. Worse, they were on "team conservative" when they opposed cuts.
Against, Obama, though, although Obama also made the same claims about cutting, the record is recent, the dishonesty more transparent, and no team loyalty is in play. Federalism, cutting spending, religious liberty, and a strong defense become interesting issues in controversy.
Apr '11
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
The correct staff is important. Ask Obama (Axelrod) , W (Carl Rove) and Clinton (Morris). Does Romney have anyone similar. Doubt it.
Apr '11
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
The February 7th defeat of Gingrich seems like a good example of nimbleness. No one could claim that the campaign had known for long that it would be possible.
Oct '11
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
I get that the "Romney is inevitable" argument would be grating and annoying a year ago, or even 3 months ago. But at this point, he is way ahead in the delegate count and popular vote. He's able to win swing states, and he's the only candidate who really has a national campaign. I won't say he's inevitable, I'll just say he's going to win.
Apr '11
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
You know that Romney's job, at which he was almost uniquely successful, rested in large part on finding the right people to run diverse kinds of organizations, and in structuring management so that his big talents worked well together?
Rove, Bush 41's employee and later 43's gubernatorial campaign manager, might be compared to Mike Murphy. It is not my impression that Romney's decision not to hire Murphy in this cycles' primaries was a bad one. I think it unlikely that there will be an equivalent to Dick Morris' 18 months of glory, but it is worth remembering that Morris was not involved with Clinton at this point.
Axelrod has a genuine talent; I'm not sure who a GOP equivalent would be.
On Romney's team, Beth Myers, Matt Rhoades, Peter Flaherty and Eric Fehrnstrom are extremely talented, but not showy. Romney values discretion and discipline heavily, so the campaign lacks divas; this is even more true this time around.
Apr '11
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
He's still not inevitable. His odds of winning have merely increased from... well, intrade probably overvalued him at 85% likely to win the nomination on the day that Florida voted, and probably undervalue him at 88% today. I'd say somewhere north of 90%, probably less than 95%.
Mar '11
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
James Of England
Given that Romney's donation to the Romney campaign has been $0, how did his personal wealth become the chief reason for his inevitability?
Maybe in this cycle, but in 2008, he spent $45 million of his own fortune. His 2008 campaign was more or less a down payment on this one. As Rob Long puts it, the GOP always nominates "the next guy".
As for this campaign, he'll probably be dipping into his personal funds again soon. He's burning through cash faster than he's raising it now. THAT' s where gobs of personal wealth help you. Nothing wrong with that, but let's quit pretending that it has nothing to do with where he is in the race.
Mar '11
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
True, but more important is the candidate himself. Every one of those candidates was popular with their own base. This one isn't, and that's the biggest difference.
The question shouldn't be "Is Romney running a lousy campaign?", but "Is the campaign running a lousy candidate?".
Sep '10
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
Allow me to stipulate that James of England is the most fervent Romney supporter/defender on Ricochet. So here's what he said in his first comment on this post:
This is precisely the problem. Romney supporters keep focusing on "demoralizing" other Republicans so their candidate can win the nomination. Perhaps he will. But is that really the kind of candidate who can win the general election? Someone who demoralizes other Republicans until they say, "OK, fine, I'll settle for this guy"?
They seem to think this is not a bug, but a feature. I'm not so sure.
May '10
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
After how he has gone after his competitors, how do you figure he won't go after The One?
May '10
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
James Of England
It is not my impression that Romney's decision not to hire Murphy in this cycles' primaries was a bad one. d. · 52 minutes ago
Murphy is on the record as saying that he was asked, but, as I recall, had to turn it down for unspecified reasons.
Apr '11
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
Douglas
Maybe in this cycle, but in 2008, he spent $45 million of his own fortune. His 2008 campaign was more or less a down payment on this one. As Rob Long puts it, the GOP always nominates "the next guy".
As for this campaign, he'll probably be dipping into his personal funds again soon. He's burning through cash faster than he's raising it now. THAT' s where gobs of personal wealth help you. Nothing wrong with that, but let's quit pretending that it has nothing to do with where he is in the race. · 1 hour ago
If he makes a personal donation during the primary, I shall be very surprised. The fact that he's pausing for fundraisers, as all candidates have, in this and previous cycles, is not an indicator that things are not going to plan. Some of those fundraisers have been scheduled for a very long time (the Waldorf, in particular). Expressing shock at it is classically irresponsible journalism.
Keith Preston
Murphy is on the record as saying that he was asked, but, as I recall, had to turn it down for unspecified reasons. ·
Indeed. Why did Romney not offer enough?
Apr '11
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
dogsbody:
This is precisely the problem. Romney supporters keep focusing on "demoralizing" other Republicans so their candidate can win the nomination. Perhaps he will. But is that really the kind of candidate who can win the general election? Someone who demoralizes other Republicans until they say, "OK, fine, I'll settle for this guy"?
They seem to think this is not a bug, but a feature. I'm not so sure.
If it was the strategy from the beginning, I'd agree. It didn't really start until after the ridiculous claims from both Santorum and Newt that Super Tuesday had been great for them. It's preparation for a post-Illinois coup de gras. All losing campaigns end in depression, and better to have them unhappy about numbers than personally humiliated, particularly since he wants Santorum to stay on.
May '11
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
Believe me, it would be a lot easier to just give in and support Romney. I want to be part of a victory party in November.....however, every time I watch Romney or hear him speak, I am waiting for him to pull off his mask and fully reveal that he is actually going to be nearly as progressive as Obama only just not moving at such warp speed. He's not a radical, but he is not conservative. I feel like a frog in a boiling pot. This really is our last chance to change course; with Romney as president we will have the status quo and in 4 years it will be too late. We're dead. Convince me I'm wrong. Romney hasn't. From my point of view, the best thing he has going for him is his lovely wife. I even worry about his SCOTUS appointments. But in the end I will of course vote for him. I would have no joy in saying "I told you so." It's so maddening. P.S. I'm really turned off by the negative ads. many of which a actually false advertising to win votes. UGH!
May '10
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
For those anti-Romneys out there, look at it this way: The Mitt Romney campaign has been so competent it's even managing to get Mitt Romney nominated.
He and his staff are doing fine, especially with the small stuff (that add up to big stuff) like fulfilling the sometimes-crazy ballot processes, competing on faraway islands, acquiring delegates even in losses, lining up proxies and endorsements, and, most importantly, raising money.
And, of course, everything is relative. The other campaigns have been pictures of incompetence by comparison. E.g., we forget that the Perry campaign was considered a juggernaut at one time.
Edited on March 16, 2012 at 11:27pmFeb '11
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
I think your post is spot on. I only differ in that I don't think I can vote for him.
Dec '11
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
Mollie Hemingway, Ed.
Do you think there's anything to the claim that the campaign is exacerbating Romney's weaknesses and squandering his assets?
I think there are two claims to be made:
1) Americans no longer appreciate the makers of the donuts and in fact, resent them.
2) Romney's staff seems to be slightly incapable of explaining why this is a destructive train of thought for the American economy.
Edited on March 16, 2012 at 11:41pm