Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
The Atlantic's Molly Ball writes about the surprising position Mitt Romney is in. He's the likely nominee and continues to rack up delegates but he still hasn't closed the deal. Some people blame Romney for the situation -- his gaffes, his lack of intrinsic appeal to the conservative and religious base of his party, his inability to connect with ordinary people.
But the article focuses on the increasing speculation that Romney "has been ill served by his confident, well-paid team of advisers."
Describing them as "myopic, insular and overconfident," Ball quotes people who say the advisers have squandered their candidate's strengths and exacerbated his weaknesses:
They point to specific strategic miscues: the failure to cultivate low-dollar donors; a lack of outreach to the conservative movement and the media generally; and the fateful decision to overlook the Feb. 7 contests in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri, where surprise wins for Rick Santorum catapulted him back into contention as Romney's principal challenger. The campaign has also repeatedly signaled that it's expecting the next primary to deal a knockout blow, only to be rebuked by too-close-for-comfort wins (Michigan and Ohio) or humbling defeats like this week's third-place finishes in Alabama and Mississippi.
These critics, many or all of whom are Romney fans who want him to win the nomination and the general election, say that the campaign runs a terrific and tight ship when it comes to tactical stuff -- negative ads, robocalls and the like. But messaging is a problem.
I don't agree with everything in the article. For instance, I actually liked the way Romney got a little bit testy about his personal wealth during an interview on Fox earlier this week but it's treated as if it were a gaffe.
The consultant said none of Romney's current difficulties should have come as a surprise. "What part of this could they not have anticipated? That the conservative base wasn't going to love him? That he was going to get attacked for his wealth?" the consultant said. "He has let these guys [his opponents] back in the building a couple of different times. And it's not like he's beating the varsity."
Keith Appell, a Republican communications strategist who worked on Steve Forbes' 2000 presidential campaign, agreed: "It's surprising and troubling that Romney is having so much difficulty against men who are good candidates, but still second and third-tier," he said. "There is no Jeb Bush or Sarah Palin or Mike Huckabee or Chris Christie. I think they've run a very good tactical campaign, but I do think they woefully underestimated the conservative reservations about Romney."
Rick Wilson, a Florida-based media strategist, detected "a cultural bias among the top leadership of that campaign against the conservative base." One way this has been manifest, he said, was a notable lack of outreach to the conservative press. ...
"All of these little signifiers that would not have cost them a damn thing have added up and made things more difficult," he said. "They didn't even start going on Fox until they got in desperate trouble. Conservatives are going to be a vocal part of this election, and ignoring and belittling them is going to have negative consequences at the end of the day."
These critics say that the Romney team is clueless about the actual problems they face on certain issues, preferring to believe they don't exist or matter.
The article puts some of the blame on Romney surrounding himself with people who "share his businesslike world view" without an understanding of political leadership.
Meanwhile, the Romney campaign's message at this stage consists mostly of insisting that they're winning based on their advantage in terms of delegates. "They are making a huge mistake talking about math," Felkel said. "Joe Six-Pack doesn't give a damn about delegate counts."
Another outside-the-Beltway Republican operative echoed that argument: "It is the principal job of the Mitt Romney campaign to become the consensus nominee of the ideological base of the party, not to pile up 1,144 delegates," the operative said.
We learn that the Romney camp insists everything is fine and that this is all going according to plan. There is some frustration, but no sense of crisis. They repeat the claims about math and resist the idea of a staff shakeup because it would show weakness and sow chaos.
Not everyone is a critic. The article quotes a former top strategist to Rick Perry speaking well of how the Romney camp is doing under the circumstances.
Here's how it ends:
But many Republicans on the sidelines of the race feel the general election slipping between the party's fingers as they watch Romney continue to stumble.
"This was a campaign built around the notion that Mitt Romney was going to be the nominee because he was the inevitable candidate and the only guy who could beat Obama," another longtime Republican strategist said. "Then he started losing, and it was shattering to the electability argument -- 'If he's inevitable, why isn't he winning?'
"Now they're just in a war of attrition," the strategist added. "They didn't shut it down early, and now this is the campaign they have."
The whole article is really good, even if I don't agree with all of it. I am not entirely convinced that things are as bad as the article suggests.
But if you're scratching your head trying to figure out why Team Romney has managed this "inevitable" victory so poorly, it's a great and helpful read.
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Comments:
Jun '10
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
His resume says he's a leader, but he doesn't act like a leader. He acts like a car salesman.
Sep '10
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
I dunno, the people I talk to aren't watching the details of the guy's campaign. Like eto said above, the guy comes across as a used car salesman no matter what he's doing. I don't think you can do anything about that.
Apr '11
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
The "Romney will do/ believes [stupid/ evil thing] because he's just like [Republican, generally with very little in common with Romney, some of the time being as innocent as Romney of the accusation]" is the most irritating anti-Romney argument one sees made.
This is the second most irksome argument. He is winning! He's on course to lose fewer states, eg., than McCain did. It's taking longer because California and New York vote late this time.
The harping on the delegate count won't win a lot of votes, true. What it can do is get talking heads to repeatedly admit that giving money to Santorum is not going to make Rick the nominee. It emphasizes that the media's claim that Santorum's had a good day on the last three contest days has been accurate 0/3 times. Demoralizing the media and Santorum donors offers the best shot at putting this to bed over April/ early May.
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
James of England,
Do you think there's anything to the claim that the campaign is exacerbating Romney's weaknesses and squandering his assets?
If so, what do you think should be done about it?
If not, do you think that this is the best it's going to get? Or will they/should they improve for the general?
Apr '11
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
Regarding February 7th, I'm pretty sure that the Caucuses were a good thing for Romney and an excellent thing for the party. On that day, the ABR ceased to be Newt, and the race became a relatively positive one. None of the candidates (except Paul) have day jobs or other demands on their time. We were always going to have a race until the day when one candidate got 1,144 delegates, not counting superdelegates or unbound delegates.
With Santorum as the ABR, that's fine. Unlike Newt, Santorum was never going to run negative ads in swing states after the primary was over. Santorum has some harmful, misleading attacks, but there is nothing like King of Bain on his resume. Santorum's pornography issue (which I was talking about here before February 7th), is mildly damaging to the party brand, but it's a pinprick compared to Newt's icepick.
Of course, if the manager of a successful campaign says that Romney's guys don't know what they're doing, though, I'd probably defer to his immense wisdom.
Feb '12
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
I'm no Romney fan---I just read a Buckley biography, and Romney reminds me of the Republican nominee the year WFB ran for mayor. Tall, good looking, wealthy, progressive, and really wants to be a politician.
All that said, I think his campaign has done a remarkable job, and should generally be lauded. Romney has been (successfully, no less) on the wrong side of the biggest issue Republicans are running on this year----healthcare, and specifically the individual mandate. He refuses to back down on it, and yet continues to win.
You can find video online of him saying things that would make conservatives blanch regarding abortion, gay rights, Ronald Reagan (peace be upon him), supply side economics, and probably many other things that I just haven't seen.
There's even a picture of Romney with money coming out of his clothes while he looks like Gordon Gecko! Are you kidding me? That Mitt Romney can pull 30% of the vote in a Republican primary in Dixie is not just impressive, it's un-freaking-believable.
Edited on March 16, 2012 at 3:38pmApr '11
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
Mollie Hemingway, Ed.: James of England,
Do you think there's anything to the claim that the campaign is exacerbating Romney's weaknesses and squandering his assets?
If so, what do you think should be done about it?
If not, do you think that this is the best it's going to get? Or will they/should they improve for the general? ยท 2 minutes ago
What weaknesses are exacerbated? What assets squandered? The states he's lost are either states where he doesn't need a campaign apparatus for the general (MI/AL/SC), or states that he won in 2008; the exception is Iowa, where he did have a pretty good small donation campaign set up.
Other than small donations, the only specific is that he hasn't put time into winning over Bill Kristol or George Will. My reading of Kristol, a big McCain supporter and now keen to pick up readership from disaffected conservatives, is that not putting time into winning him over was a sound decision. Not putting time into winning over the husband of Perry's employee, likewise. National Review's staff are more or less where they were in 2008.
Apr '11
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
In other words, he has the conservative media base that'll back him (Coulter, Barnes, most of NR, half of Commentary, Hewitt, etc.) Fighting over the rest while the angry negative machine is riled would generate headlines and entrench people. Keeping the relatively impersonal distance makes it easier to patch up once the trouble's over. I'd guess that the Weekly Standard will get behind spending cuts, entitlement reform, and an increase in defense spending before the primary is technically done.
Obviously, he's not done enough to satisfy people like Weaver or Schmidt, but I don't look at this as a problem. He also gets a lot of flack from Mike Murphy (oddly not mentioned in the article, despite everyone else being a fellow McCain team guy), but I tend to side with his current campaign team over Murphy on the disagreements they have. In particular, I think that the delegate counting is classic Romney stuff. It's not exciting, but forcing people to learn the boring, upsetting truth, in this case that their Santorum dream isn't coming true, moves the political landscape. It's what he needs to do on spending, too, like in MA.
Dec '10
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
If Romney can get nine delegates from a meeting of 70 Republicans on American Samoa, an island that doesn't have a congressional seat, and doesn't vote for the president, I'd say it's pretty hard to fault his campaign.
May '10
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
What's really hurting Romney. Ignoring the conservative base because where are they going to go (causes an enthusiasm gap that may really hurt him in critical states). OMG!!!! HE'S A MORMON!!!!! is hurting him in primaries where Evangelicals (of which I am one. I voted for Romney, but know others who didn't mainly because of this) can choose between him and Santorum (I don't think this will hurt him in the general because where else are the Es going to go?). And most critical of all -- the deep suspicion that he's not going to take the fight to Obama, and be another graceful loser like McCain/Dole/Poppy Bush.
Apr '11
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
I suppose I'll repeat myself here: I never get the sense that Romney wants to win the conservative base. The arguments I've seen for him are "he's inevitable" and "the numbers are on his side." I've seen Romney supporters point to conservative credentials, which is a good selling point, but Romney frequently skirts around those points.
Let's face it, I want to be wooed. I don't want to be assumed.
I'm so demanding.
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
Mollie, there's an even more devastating piece by Alexander Burns on Politico. Romney is not exactly battling for the nomination against the A-Team. He is struggling against a disgraced former Speaker of the House and a former Senator who lost his seat the last time he ran by 18%. Had someone formidable run against him, someone fully prepared for the race and armed with a staff capable of doing the requisite research, he would have been creamed.
None of this means that he will lose in November, however. But, yes, he would do much, much better if he had not built a team in his own image. They drew up a plan; they are executing it flawlessly. But, in politics, one must be nimble, and the Romney campaign is about as nimble as an aircraft carrier.
Edited on March 16, 2012 at 4:00pmApr '11
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
What they will need to improve for the general is 1: the small donor network, for which the HHS mandate looks to be golden (but not easy to monetize until people stop thinking of him as running against Santorum and start thinking of him running solely against Obama), but for which other avenues will have to be opened, too. 2: develop better ties with the conservative media; I'd think late April/ May would be a good time for this, allowing space for the various Kubler Ross stages to be properly finished; that was about the time that McCain's team worked on it. 3: develop a serious focus on liberal hostility to Mormons; (talking more about the arson attack that destroyed Mitt's Boston church would be a helpful start); make the media suffer for each Mormon story they produce. 4: state specific stuff that most of us will never hear about and that they may well be doing in Ohio, Missouri, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Mostly, though, I think things are going pretty smoothly. The things they need to do are things that they are on course to do.
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
The real question is this. In the general election, will Romney run by boasting that he is a better social engineer than Obama? If so, he might lose. Or will Romney run against Obama by charging that the policies pressed by the Obama administration are a danger to our liberty? If so, he will win by a landslide.
My bet is that he chooses the former tack. It reflects who he is and what he thinks, and there does not appear to be anyone high up in his campaign who thinks in different terms.
If the Romney campaign persuades us that this election is a choice between personal and political liberty, on the one hand, and the administrative entitlements state, on the other, Romney and the Republicans will win big. If the campaign persuades us that this election is a choice between management teams, the Republicans will not do very well in the House and Senate elections, and Romney may lose.
Mar '11
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
I'd say it's pretty hard to fault his money. If Santorum or Gingrich had his resources, they'd be winning Samoa too. Let's be honest here. Romney is "inevitable" to some people because he has more cash... campaign and personal... than anyone else. If Romney were just some ex-CEO with a net worth comparable to Santorum or Gingrich... just a few million dollars... would anyone really have thought he could win the Presidency?
Mar '11
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
Which is precisely what McCain said: you'll vote for me, conservatives, because I'll leave you with no choice.
Apr '11
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
Both pieces make the claim (from the same quote) that Romney is lucky he's not facing the A list. I'm pretty sure the 4 candidate A list as proposed isn't an A list. If the ABR was Huckabee, what state would Mitt have lost that he didn't lose to Santorum anyway? We've run a Mitt v. Huckabee contest and a Mitt v. Santorum contest, and it looks clear to me that Santorum comes out better, despite Huckabee's superior fundraising and organization talents.
Chris Christie only became governor in 2010. If he was going to launch a Presidential campaign, it would have needed to be almost immediately on taking office. If he'd spent his time in Iowa, he'd have failed as governor; he's been very busy, and much needed. Bush and Palin both have time on their hands and haven't been demonstrated inferior to Santorum, but are far from clearly superior, either.
Newt's terrible, but King of Bain genuinely hurt.
Apr '11
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
Douglas
I'd say it's pretty hard to fault his money. If Santorum or Gingrich had his resources, they'd be winning Samoa too. Let's be honest here. Romney is "inevitable" to some people because he has more cash... campaign and personal... than anyone else. If Romney were just some ex-CEO with a net worth comparable to Santorum or Gingrich... just a few million dollars... would anyone really have thought he could win the Presidency? ยท 7 minutes ago
Given that Romney's donation to the Romney campaign has been $0, how did his personal wealth become the chief reason for his inevitability?
Sep '10
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
Romney's campaign and his supporters have continually convinced me he is exactly the wrong candidate. I even WANT to be in denial. Give me something to help me believe this guy gets it, and I get nothing. I can't even read James of England's comments any more so filled with exactly the same reasoning and approach that turns me off to Romney.
If I were Obama I'd want to run against Romney. It doesn't matter what he says, he is the poster boy for what is wrong with modern corporate America. Even though he personally isn't at fault in any way, his approach and demeanor exhudes the kind of cluelessness corporate execs are known for.
Dec '11
Re: Is Romney Running A Lousy Campaign?
He isnt running a lousy campaign. He has what is probably the picture perfect campaign run by all the experts, with the utmost of competency and skill. The problem is marketing cant make a product any good.