Is Romney Inevitable After All?
There’s a good chance I’ve been misleading a lot of people for a long time. For about a year now, I’ve been telling all who would listen that the Republican tradition of nominating the next guy in line wouldn’t hold with 2012 and Mitt Romney.
Two trends informed my judgment. First, the conservative wing of the party that has always disdained ideologically questionable establishment candidates seems to have become dominant within GOP ranks with the rise of the Tea Party. Second – despite my best efforts – I’ve never been able to find someone who is actually excited about Romney.
Yet today I fear that this analysis may be coming apart at the seams. My reasoning: the force of the Tea Party isn’t particularly potent unless it’s unified – and even then a Tea Party-favored candidate would still need crossover appeal to more conventional Republicans in order to be a safe bet for the presidential nomination.
It looks increasingly to me like no candidate that fits that profile is in the race. Chris Christie and Mitch Daniels were both reasonable prospects, but they were, alas, not forthcoming. The closest fit among those who have jumped in is Michele Bachmann (of whom I’m rather fond), but there seems to be an ineffable unease about her as a presidential nominee among the GOP rank-and-file. Talking to Republicans about Bachmann reminds me a bit of talking to Democrats about Howard Dean in 2004. There’s a lot of “I like her … but ...”
Lately, the contention among many conservatives has become that Rick Perry will be the one to bridge the Tea Party and the establishment. I’ll wait for his entry into the race to pass judgment on that proposition, but if it proves true it creates a difficulty: unless either Perry or Bachmann flames out, Tea Party types will be less unified, not more. And that divided opposition redounds to the benefit of one Mitt Romney, happily taking up residency at the median of the Republican Party. If this sounds slightly familiar, it’s because a similar split between Romney and Mike Huckabee gave us John McCain in 2008.
Bottom line: it seems to me that either Bachmann or Perry (assuming he gets in) has to take a mortal blow either early in the primaries of before the voting even starts – because unless we get Romney one on one against a bona fide conservative … I’m afraid we may get the next guy in line.
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Comments:
Jul '10
Re: Is Romney Inevitable After All?
You've been reading EJ Hill's thread on pessimism, haven't you?
Apr '11
Re: Is Romney Inevitable After All?
I think the race will come down to Romney vs. not-Romney and the only question is who not-Romney will be (and at the moment it appears to be Bachmann, but that could change in the next few months).
I don't think most races can support more than two competitive candidates, no matter how big the original field. Remember, in 2008, a huge Democratic field quickly became Hillary v. Obama. And it quickly became McCain v. Romney on the Republican side. Sometimes a race can become one person dominating the field quickly, like Gore in 2000 or Kerry in 2004, but I'm hard pressed to think of a long race with three competitive candidates.
Romney is apparently well-organized in New Hampshire and well funded. So unless he implodes, we have reason to believe he will be one of the two.
Romney's main roadblock, if he wins New Hampshire, would be winning South Carolina. A conservative non-Romney can put up a good stand there.
All to be considered, how does the RNC rule change that drops the winner-take-all states affect the race? It might help a well funded candidate stay afloat.
Jul '10
Re: Is Romney Inevitable After All?
Well, here's a problem: the latest Gallup poll has 19% of independents and 18% of Republicans saying they would not vote for a Mormon.
Aug '10
Re: Is Romney Inevitable After All?
I found a golden tablet in my backyard which only I could see and translate from God saying Romney will not be the Republican nominee. Oh ya, three of my friends say my story is true.
May '10
Re: Is Romney Inevitable After All?
Krauthammer says the coming Obama campaign will be the most negative in history, since he can't run on his record. My question: Who is the the Republican best-positioned (by experience, personality, and record) to withstand such an all-out negative assault (aided and abetted by the MSM).
Romney has to be on that list.
Nov '10
Re: Is Romney Inevitable After All?
Answer: The Maker of the Donuts.
Feb '11
Re: Is Romney Inevitable After All?
I can’t watch Perry without having painful recollections of George W Bush. I know he isn’t President Bush, but I have to exert considerable effort to remind myself of this.
Mar '11
Re: Is Romney Inevitable After All?
If Romney is inevitable, then so is a second Obama term. Candidates that don't excite the base don't win. Name the last one from either side that did? The closest you can get was Bush the Elder. And in his 88 race, he did all he could to ape Ronald Reagan.
Romney is Bob Dole and John McCain redux... a "it's my turn" candidate. And ultimately, a loser.
Nov '10
Re: Is Romney Inevitable After All?
Um... Let's compare Romney's net worth with that of Bob Dole and John McCain (sans Cindy).
Edited on July 15, 2011 at 7:14amMay '10
Re: Is Romney Inevitable After All?
Romney has to be on that list.
He is. People, you are seeing too few levels of the chess game here.
Romney can beat Obama if he gets the nomination, and I think he can get the nomination.
Jan '11
Re: Is Romney Inevitable After All?
Look, if Romney is our candidate, and the GOP continues the "he's next in line" trend... well, I'll vote for the guy, but nothing else. If this is the election that determines the future of the nation, and the GOP decides to put internal party politicking ahead of what the country actually needs... I don't know that I care all that much who wins at that point.
After the disaster that is Obama, if we don't get a true believer Conservative, as we did when Reagan beat Carter, we may as well start considering the GOP the New Whigs.
FWIW, ParisParamus, I don't think Romney can beat Obama. Sorry. You underestimate just how big a chunk of our countrymen view the world through the lens of identity politics.
Re: Is Romney Inevitable After All?
It's good to be tough on candidates, but perhaps in the future without resorting to mocking their religious beliefs.
Nov '10
Re: Is Romney Inevitable After All?
So do I.
He was so impressive in the 2008 Michigan primary, as he allowed himself to speak fervently on the subjects of wealth and job creation. Let him speak so now!
Apr '11
Re: Is Romney Inevitable After All?
I have no doubt that he can get the nomination due to the fact we republicans seem to pick the next guy in line to our own detriment inevitably.
All I can say is why....
The most recent podcast discussed this very same fact that having a candidate like Romney who may even win gets us what just more of the same only in a republican wrapper as far as I'm concerned.
Jan '11
Re: Is Romney Inevitable After All?
We're still in the Conventional Wisdom phase of the campaign. Right now, all we know is how the media and pundits react to each candidate ... we don't know yet how the actual voters respond to them.
We don't know how pissed off voters really are. I know how I feel, but until we go through the common experience of a vote, I can't gauge how everyone else really feels. I suspect the electorate drastically wants a change from Obama's failures, but it remains to be seen how they'll pursue that change. Are voters more disgusted with Obama's administrative ineptness or his spending ideology? Will they go for Romney's skills or embrace limited government? Don't know yet. I can only say how I feel.
Remember, an election is partly about the candidates; but it's much more about how the voters feel. Romney may be have better candidate skills, but he doesn't represent much of anything. If the voters drastically want a change, and Bachmann represents that change, her representative value will make up for Romney's advantage in skills.
Daniels, Barbour, and Perry may have brought both. Oh well.
Oct '10
Re: Is Romney Inevitable After All?
outstripp: Krauthammer says the coming Obama campaign will be the most negative in history, since he can't run on his record. My question: Who is the the Republican best-positioned (by experience, personality, and record) to withstand such an all-out negative assault (aided and abetted by the MSM).
Romney has to be on that list. · Jul 14 at 9:18pm
Pawlenty. But the tea partiers would rather repeat the O'Donnell-Coons fight in the national elections.
Mar '11
Re: Is Romney Inevitable After All?
Troy, I'm afraid you may be right.
The negatives that Mr Obama (via his surrogates in the media) will use? Easy - wacko Mormon, lays off workers in companies he re-structures; evil, rich, capitalist.
I still have maybe unrealistic hopes for Bachmann (wacko evangelist), Perry (wacko Texan), Ryan (wacko granny slayer) and, err, Palin (all-round wacko). I will most likely vote for one of those in the Primary. I guess that makes me a wacko, Mr Murphy?
But in the General, obviously if Romney is on the ballot I will have no problem voting for him - it would be nice to have someone running the country who understands and likes capitalism. He has said he will repeal Obamacare, and I think he may get the country re-structured into a profitable enterprise - but the negative attacks on him will be brutal.
Oct '10
Re: Is Romney Inevitable After All?
A more important question is: Which candidates are the least capable of withstanding the demonization?
A. Michele Bachmann, Sarah Palin, Donald Trump, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul
Oct '10
Re: Is Romney Inevitable After All?
The GOP "acceptable alternatives" to Obama are: Pawlenty, Daniels, Ryan, Rubio, Christie, Romney, Giuliani
May '10
Re: Is Romney Inevitable After All?
Troy Senik
Bottom line: it seems to me that either Bachmann or Perry (assuming he gets in) has to take a mortal blow either early in the primaries of before the voting even starts – because unless we get Romney one on one against a bona fide conservative … I’m afraid we may get the next guy in line. ·
Agreed.
I also agree with TheSophist.
Right now, I'd say the top three most popular candidates in the primaries would be Romney, Bachmann and Pawlenty. If Perry enters, he will be in the #2 slot with Bachmann and Pawlenty perhaps getting equal votes.
But it's looking like the only way anyone will beat Romney is if some of the more conservative candidates drop out so they don't split the conservative vote. Fat chance.
If Palin runs (which I doubt), she will be a strong contender against Romney. But she would warp the entire field and cause some chaos. Even with her star power, she would probably lose to Romney because of the conservative split.
But perhaps Huntsman will suck away some of Romney's Beltway voters.
Perry would suffer from being a Texan (ironically), after Bush.