Is Obama's Base Growing? Why?
In my latest at The Daily Caller, I warn that Republicans are going to have a headache in store telling themselves what's happened to America if Obama wins reelection. If the present is any guide, lots more people support the president than Republicans think is reasonable. And lots of voters will vote for the president despite serious objections, deep disappointment, and little hope for better in a second term. If Obama wins, I think that'll be less the fault of the eventual Republican nominee than it will be the cause of a growing base of voters who won't vote against him no matter what.
Ezra Klein tweeted me this morning to warn that I sound out of touch depicting the yes-no-matter-what voter and the no-opposition-regardless voter as the two "goals" toward which the "animating principle of the Democrats" leads. Provocations use condensed language, especially in column-length opinion pieces, so I do want to take the opportunity to say a few more words here.
Rather than encouraging Republicans to imagine that Democrats today want to ensure the domination of their base by those who feel stuck voting for Obama or feel duty-bound not to vote against him, I want to encourage Republicans to reflect on the way in which Obama's reelection might depend strongly on both those groups.
I'm not a campaign strategist for the president. (Surprise.) But if I were, I'd want to be darn sure to minimize the electoral damage caused by Democrats, Independents, and crossover Republicans disappointed and angered by Obama's first term. That's why the president has told what's left of his youth coalition that they should focus on things like his two new female Supreme Court justices, or his hand in ending Don't Ask, Don't Tell. That's why he's publicly railing against income inequality while doing everything in his power to keep and grow his favor with the poorest and ultra-wealthiest Americans.
And I'd want to be be extra certain, if I wanted to keep my job, that an absolute maximum of voters who might consider sticking it out for another four years wound up at the polls pulling that lever for the president. Which campaign strategist wouldn't think this way -- and act accordingly?
These would almost be rather banal observations, but for the fact that this is not, of course, what Democrats signed up for in 2008. (At least, it's not what they thought they signed up for.) Locking down the two groups I describe is essential because of how Obama has governed -- namely, in a way that clouds the Democrats' brand. If this month's polls are any indication, the ironic good news for the left is that the president really doesn't have to do a whole lot to lock the two groups down. Sling some rhetoric, smear his rivals, stave off disaster, and bam -- 50% approval ratings are here again.
That sure seems like evidence that Obama's base is growing. A victory in '12 probably will mean the evidence will have become overwhelming. The deep disappointments of Obama's first term, and what they suggest about a second, make a widen-the-base strategy the smart campaign move. The base could well be doing most of the work for the president. And once you arrive at that point -- or metaphorical goal line -- where do you go from there? The president has spent much of his first term polarizing away the other half of the American people.
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May '10
Re: Is Obama's Base Growing? Why?
America, we hardly knew ye....
Jul '11
Re: Is Obama's Base Growing? Why?
Unseating an incumbent is very difficult. While Obama's numerous failures, corruption, and incompetence is obvious to some there is a vast delusion regarding his swagger among the left. Obama will most likely win this election and that bothers me enough but it is worse because all the candidates are not discussing his greatest weakness.
The Obama regime has played very loosely with our laws and some of the transgressions are criminal. Why the GOP has not fully hitched their wagon to an all out assault on Eric Holder's criminal behavior and the Obama cover up is beyond me. It seems as silly as not pressing Watergate. If Holder gets removed the flood gates open for a massive discrediting of the Obama image. The GOP will fight on ideas and ideals and it probably will not be enough. Please expose the Chicago thugs for who they are.
Edited on Dec 21, 2011 at 9:45pmMar '11
Re: Is Obama's Base Growing? Why?
Yes, I often wonder why Mr Obama's approval numbers are so high - it's worrying.
I am surrounded by Obama supporters at work - we have agreed not to discuss politics, as it always ends in an argument. But, as far as I can tell, although they are deeply disappointed that Obama hasn't yet "fundamentally transformed" the country, they will most likely vote for him again.
If this is true then, Greece, here we come.
This is why I listen to Rush Limbaugh - to remain somewhat optimistic - it's a struggle ;-)
Edited on Dec 21, 2011 at 2:39pmMar '11
Re: Is Obama's Base Growing? Why?
Mr. Poulos, During every election cycle the 90% of the MSM that is progressive starts lecturing us with friendly mis-information about what we must do to avoid a landslide defeat. Those articles mixed with a little skepticism may be taken as an instruction manual of what we should do.
As a teen-ager I used to enter amateur boxing tournaments. Before every fight my opponent's friends would be over to give me some friendly advice. The advice always came down to the fact that I was going to get killed because his last opponent was either still in a coma or traction -- maybe both. I always listened carefully because they normally gave away something useful.
Like a boxing match this election will be fought out inside the ring. The view from outside the ring is never the same as inside. However, in listening to the MSM and the RINOs we know they are scared to death of our drawing back the curtain and exposing the little fat man hidden there. They are also scared to death that their man cannot hold his own in an open debate. Besides their man might break down and cry.
May '10
Re: Is Obama's Base Growing? Why?
Agreed, James. Conservatives often make the mistake of pretending everybody acts according to deliberated positions. President Obama will do better in the election than his policies merit.
One thing we should expect is the race card. Countless people voted for Obama to be part of electing the first black President. Democrats will again paint any opposition to Obama as racist. Thousands of fools still can't stomach being accused of racism, though this strategy will not be as effective the second time around.
Next, there are all the voters who hate both parties. It's alright if swing voters don't feel represented by Republicans as long as they consider Democrats to be even more extreme. You just have to seem more reasonable than the other guy. That's why Republicans must focus on Obama's most radical actions as President... primarily signing a 2,000+ page bill that hadn't even been read by himself or any member of Congress.
Republicans need more than arguments. Human beings are driven by more than logic.
Edited on Dec 21, 2011 at 2:46pmNov '10
Re: Is Obama's Base Growing? Why?
"that'll be less the fault of the eventual Republican nominee than it will be the cause of a growing base of voters who won't vote against him no matter what."
Of course that's the case. California is paradigmatic. Libs (lemmings) will vote themselves off a cliff. Ezra Klein is blinkered.
It just goes to show (as I never tire of pointing out to libertarians and to conservatives of undue libertarian bent who see economics as determinative of everything), banking on the body politic's "self-interest" as the panacea to deliver us from our economic-political woes is grossly inadequate. It's not as simple as people seeing that big government costs too much, people will "get religion," and vote libs out of office.
How does a politician from on high get the citizens to see that they are becoming slavish without at the same time alienating them?
The only widespread virtue left in the republic is the profit motive. If not properly cultivated, this simply fuels the problems of self-interest -- the bane of all democracies as self-interest leads people to vote themselves into slavery.
Jul '11
Re: Is Obama's Base Growing? Why?
Here are the things I hear regarding talking points and 40% of the country believes this quite fervently and a decent percentage talk to everyone they meet about our great leader.
The republicans did this to our country.
The free markets are destroying us.
Bush created wars and lied, people died.
Obama saved us from a depression.
Obama killed OBL.
Obama ended the Iraq war.
Millionaire crooks run the republicans.
Obama will make those rich people pay.
People that dislike Obama are racist.
Obama has been handcuffed by the party of no.
Obama will get us "free health care"
Obama will save the environment.
Republicans want to kill grandma by modifying Medicare.
Republicans want Social Security removed to starve people.
Republicans hate the middle class.
Republicans are racist and homophobic.
Sarah Palin(insert any talking point no matter how inane).
We will not convince the delusional so what about the undecideds. Do not think like an intellectual but like someone far more primal and those base concerns are what needs addressing. I reiterate from earlier, Obama needs to be painted as the morally compromised person that he is to win this election, if not I think we lose easily.
Re: Is Obama's Base Growing? Why?
DocJay:
The Obama regime has played very loosely with our laws and some of the transgressions are criminal. Why the GOP has not fully hitched their wagon to an all out assault on Eric Holder's criminal behavior and the Obama cover up is beyond me. It seems as silly as not pressing Watergate. If Holder gets removed the flood gates open for a massive discrediting of the Obama image. The GOP will fight on ideas and ideals and it probably will not be enough. Please expose the Chicago thugs for who they are. · Dec 21 at 2:32pm
Just wait. The Republicans are taking their time for good reason. It his comes to a head in the summer or fall it will do the most damage.
Re: Is Obama's Base Growing? Why?
James, I think that you are overly pessimistic. The majority of Americans blame the present discontents on big government. My bet is that Obama will do better in the polls than at the ballot box. In many quarters, it is hard to say that one is against him. But when one asks oneself whether one wants Obamacare . . .
Dec '10
Re: Is Obama's Base Growing? Why?
Alas, even Obamacare seems to have dropped off the radar screen of the average American. I am deeply, deeply concerned. I am beginning to doubt that we are a "center right" country any more.
Re: Is Obama's Base Growing? Why?
Ron, Paul: it's entirely reasonable to conclude that Obama will underperform on Election Day. It would be too pessimistic to deny that. On the other hand, current polling suggests we're not in entirely reasonable times. Prudence would seem to dictate that we at least be prepared to recalibrate our meters accordingly. And understand the degree and type of work that will have to go into it...
Aug '10
Re: Is Obama's Base Growing? Why?
Yes James, he has done so much better since his 'shellacking' in 2010.
Try not to listen too much to Ezra, he has trouble understanding things that were written 100 years (or more) ago. I just wonder if this is his latest attempt to coordinate the message via a journo-list.
Jul '10
Re: Is Obama's Base Growing? Why?
It's a boxing match. With a 3 year long first round and multiple boxers winnowed down to two in the the final rounds (or not) by delegates and committees. And 99% of the punches are thrown out of public view. Politics in this country are more raw than they've been since the 1968 election cycle, with a lot of the same players and a silent majority that now marches and organizes and will not tolerate the declinism and corruption of the pay-to-play entrenched elite. And they have made their own channels of information to overcome the deceit of a partisan paleomedia.
But Reid and Pelosi say those Tea Party folks are done now. This hasn't even gotten started yet. Have a happy 2012!
I love this country.
May '10
Re: Is Obama's Base Growing? Why?
Dunno about Barack, but according to James Senbrunner, Michelle's base is quite broad indeed.
May '10
Re: Is Obama's Base Growing? Why?
Paul A. Rahe
Just wait. The Republicans are taking their time for good reason. It his comes to a head in the summer or fall it will do the most damage. · Dec 21 at 3:56pm
Dr. Rahe, from your lips to God's ear. The Republican's aren't known as "The Stupid Party" for nothing. Come summer and fall they'll be skittering around like roaches on a hot griddle and completely failing to make the case against Obama and the Left.
Meanwhile, all these hopes of Obama meeting his comeuppance in a debate, that assumes:
1. The Republican candidate takes the fight to him
2. Obama doesn't decide to blow off debates like he blew off taking public financing
Oct '10
Re: Is Obama's Base Growing? Why?
Paul Rahe:"Just wait. The Republicans are taking their time for good reason. It his comes to a head in the summer or fall it will do the most damage."
Perhaps, but Clinton won in '96 partly by defining Dole as being like Gingrich before the fall campaign even started. I think Repubs. need to start the attack ads in Jan. or Feb.
Dec '11
Re: Is Obama's Base Growing? Why?
I seem to recall thinking to myself on election night 2008 that McCain came a lot closer than the lead up polls indicated he would.
I know here in Canada I always, in my head, add the margin of error to the Conservative Party and take a similar margin away from what the “third party” is at the moment I don't know if it's an inherent bias in the polls or simply a fear of segment of the population of admitting out loud to another, potentially judgmental, person that you are part of the "silent plurality".
Edited on Dec 22, 2011 at 6:24am