Is Obama really going to win a second term?
Many thanks to Diane for the kind introduction of me and my wife, Sabrina (who might be joining in from time to time). It’s great to be part of the conversation here at Ricochet!
I’ve been told that I’m bad at small-talk, so let’s get right to the point . . . is Obama really going to win a second term?
Let’s face it, this is the big question. The one that keeps supporters and opponents of the President up at night. It’s why each new poll shift and fundraising total sends the politically-obsessed on both sides of the aisle swinging toward relief or depression.
For Romney supporters/Obama opponents, it seems preposterous to think the President could win with the sputtering economy, a fizzled “stimulus,” Obamacare, and all the trouble in the world.
And yet . . . the polls show a tight election, with Romney typically close but trailing. The election forecast models mostly predict an Obama victory. These models look primarily at economic indicators and presidential approval from recent polling. The economic indicators, at least those used in the models, are bad for Obama but not so bad that they tank his prospects. Same goes for the President’s standing in the polls.
But the polls don’t tell us who will make up the actual electorate this November. Polling does a pretty good job of telling us a few things; a) the opinion, right now, of all adults, b) the opinion of all those who say they are registered voters (sometimes actual registered), and c) the opinion of “likely voters,” which means a pollster’s best guess at the kinds of people who will actually turn out.
I come at all of this from an academic political behavior background, not from straight polling/public opinion. What I find most interesting are what message experiments, like our PocketTrials, reveal about how certain kinds of voters move in response to political “treatments” like campaign ads, news clips or articles with new information. These kinds of experiments identify causation and add to knowledge in a way that traditional polls simply can’t.
But we have to start somewhere for a baseline. So what’s the best baseline? The polls, or are they hopelessly biased or inadequate? Which models, or are they hopelessly simplified for an election in a time like this?
I have some thoughts and some really interesting, big, but mostly overlooked academic datasets that I think help ground us, but I wanted to see what everyone thought about this at the outset.
Is it President Obama’s election to lose, or Governor Romney’s?
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Comments:
May '10
Re: Is Obama really going to win a second term?
I think it would be an act of near insanity to re-elect Obama.
Then again, I thought voting for him the first time was an act of near-insanity, and a majority of voters did that.
Aug '11
Re: Is Obama really going to win a second term?
My 80 year old parents will not be voting for Obama this year. They generally vote Democrat but will cross over if they like a particular candidate. My Dad is a big proponent of never having both parties control both houses...he says too much control gets them in trouble.
I wish I could tell you I am confident that Romney will pull this out but I'm not. I still know too many people who care more about what Hollywood thinks about Obama than what their own gut tells them to do.
Jul '10
Re: Is Obama really going to win a second term?
I don't understand current polling showing, roughly, a tie. Polls show independents going strongly for Romney when compared to 2008, sufficiently, by my back of the envelope calculations, to account for the tie.
Through in the apathy of many 2008 Obama voters such as young people, why is there a tie?
Apr '11
Re: Is Obama really going to win a second term?
EThompson
Pls explain why the worst president in our history (Warren G. Harding can relax now!) is still running a competitive race? (Hint: we could use a thorough J of E analysis right about now.) ·
I'm a Harding fan, but if you share the more common view that he was terrible, he offers little comfort; his death in office was followed by his VP winning the second biggest popular vote landslide of the twentieth century (Harding won the biggest). The unkindness to Harding was mostly a later phenomenon.
To my mind, the three chief reasons Romney struggles are:
I'll try to write up a post on point 2.
Nov '10
Re: Is Obama really going to win a second term?
I would have said--apart from what I read about the poll results--that Romney was way ahead. I'd have based that on yard signs and bumper stickers, conversations with colleagues, the content of my Facebook feed, and every election we have seen since 2009. But the polls keep worrying me.
Nov '10
Re: Is Obama really going to win a second term?
In my part of the country (Alabama), I have to scratch around to find an Obama voter, and then he is either black or a teacher. I, too, am mystified by the polls.
Re: Is Obama really going to win a second term?
Merina, I think you're right that traditional polling faces increasing, and to a large extent intractable, problems. That's one reason I think good, generalizeable online samples like YouGov and Knowledge Networks provide, and opinion experiments using these or online market research samples, are increasingly valuable. You get more engaged respondents and often better data, while also having the advantage of a visual interface.
Feb '11
Re: Is Obama really going to win a second term?
James Of England
I disagree, vehemently.
I'm right square in the middle of the demographic most inclined to find that compelling and I don't.
If this has harmed Romney it's only because he won't fire back. I remain amazed that the Obama camp can get away with attacking Romney for offshoring at Bain when Romney wasn't involved and Obama contributors were.
Apr '12
Re: Is Obama really going to win a second term?
Signs are an important indicator, Lucy.
Rosedale, Toronto used to always be blanketed in red (Liberal, we have the colours the other way round) before an election, and they would win. This last election Harper had only one message: he needed a majority to stop the bickering in Parliament. Rosedale was blanketed in more blue (Conservative) signs than red. Harper got his majority.
Polls have to be conducted professionally, but are never perfect. Who know if people give honest answers, or what will happen that perhaps influences the end result.
Dec '11
Re: Is Obama really going to win a second term?
James Of England
To my mind, the three chief reasons Romney struggles are:
Although we may disagree entirely on WGH, I completely agree with you here.
Apr '11
Re: Is Obama really going to win a second term?
Xennady
James Of England
I disagree, vehemently.
I'm right square in the middle of the demographic most inclined to find that compelling and I don't.
If this has harmed Romney it's only because he won't fire back. I remain amazed that the Obama camp can get away with attacking Romney for offshoring at Bain when Romney wasn't involved and Obama contributors were. · 7 minutes ago
You're not square in that demographic. You're far better educated.
If you think that fixing the lies in King is something that can be done easily or terribly profitably, I urge you to spend a little more time making calls.
Until King, most people didn't understand Bain, but understood that Mitt had done great things for the economy. Afterwards, the majority shifted to thinking that they didn't understand Bain, but that he'd done terrible things to the economy. Obama's ads, in comparison, have barely moved the needle on the subject.
There isn't an effective way of educating apathetic people that I've discovered; it's too detail oriented and boring a subject.
Aug '11
Re: Is Obama really going to win a second term?
If all pollsters would to drop dead immediately, would anyone notice? Would that event have any impact on the election?
Dec '11
Re: Is Obama really going to win a second term?
This is really serious business. Very few people I talk to seem to view the election in what I would call serious terms. My great hope, and it is informed only by my attempts to cling to some mental health so I can make it through the day, is that some of the Obama leaners get serious as the election approaches. They might consider that he has no budget, no plan for anything (debt, budget, sequester, defense. . . ), that he has failed by his own criteria of 3 years ago, that he really does not like working with other politicians and is terrible at it, and is unnecessarily divisive. Oh, and the country is heading for disaster in all regards. People will simply have to get serious or we, as a people, will get what we deserve. I have to cling to hope!
Apr '12
Re: Is Obama really going to win a second term?
Private equity companies, such as Bain Capital, lend capital and expertise to troubled companies to help them become strong again, grow, and to create more jobs. Sometimes the risk taken by the private equity companies doesn't work out, and a company that was going under has to be let do just that. It is very simple. What a pity Romney's team don't seem to be able to get this simple message out. It might be better to show what an unusual person is Romney in educational adverts, rather than attacking Obama.
What Romney achieved in founding Bain Capital and building it up into one of the largest Private Equity companies in the world, was totally remarkable. When his other achievements are added to this, he is an amazing person. Add to this the fact that he is a man with integrity, a sound moral and ethical system, also good-looking, he is a winner.
By a landslide! :-)
Jun '10
Re: Is Obama really going to win a second term?
I had always thought this demo was from an actual question such as:
"From 1-10, how likely..." and took 7-10. or
"Won't-Not Likely-Don't Know-Likely-Definite" and took the last two.
Please elucidate.
Aug '12
Re: Is Obama really going to win a second term?
I think Obama's numbers are soft. His high personals are holding him up, but satisfaction with his performace is generally not breaking the mid-40s. When the time comes to vote, job-approval will dominate the decisions. Alas, that only gets us to 47/46 and 3rd parties.
My hope is that Romney will pull out the same knife set he used during the primaries. He may not do it personally, but someone needs to attack those personal numbers -say by highlighting the man arrested in LA a few days ago.
So, professional prediction: too close to call, maybe slight edge Obama. But I think Romney wins convincingly.
Sep '12
Re: Is Obama really going to win a second term?
Unless there is some correlation between picking up the phone and a person's politics, I can't see how this would matter. For me, as long as the polling has been done randomly, I will believe them, even the party distributions. I think the distrust of polls is a function of being behind in them. I don't think anyone would be doubt any poll if they all showed Romney up by 7 at this or any point in the race.
As for a second term for Obama, I'll show you the silver lining: If you were ever the type to wonder what would happen if Jimmy Carter won the 1980 election, this is going to be as close as you get to getting a real-to-life answer.
Feb '11
Re: Is Obama really going to win a second term?
James Of England
There isn't an effective way of educating apathetic people that I've discovered; it's too detail oriented and boring a subject.
Thank you for the compliment, but I still disagree.
I think many people are apathetic simply because they figure no government policy will ever really get better.
Donald Trump- of all people- hit upon the formula to challenge this. Paraphrasing roughly, he said that we're being screwed by China. Yes, he'd made deals that led to offshoring- but he wanted to change that.
He wanted policy to change. That's the key- he wanted to fix it. I remain convinced that Barry still has a chance to be re-elected because people remember George Bush as a disaster who would not change policy even when his policy led to disaster.
If Romney really wants to appeal to the beer-swilling masses he needs to borrow a page from Trump. That he hasn't tells me Romney isn't interested in making policy changes. Offshoring doesn't bother him, so he won't criticize offshoring by Obama bundlers.
Thus, he'll get my vote- but with far less enthusiasm than I'd like.
May '12
Re: Is Obama really going to win a second term?
Obama should lose -- Romney should win.
But, to answer the question --- Both. Obama cannot run on his record. Romney cannot convince enough of the folks to admit that they made a wrong choice and to vote for him.
I have seen this too often in business: A "big cheese" hires/promotes a helper. The helper "fails". The "big cheese" continues to hold onto the the "helper" -- but does not fire him/her. Why? The "big cheese" has to admit that since he made the selection -- he made a bad one -- and it looks bad on him down as well.
This will NOT happen with the cabinet/secretaries that Romney selects.
But, in short -- the voters that chose Obama, don't like the taste of "humble pie". This needs to be tactfully addressed if Romney wants this to be a landslide
Mar '12
Re: Is Obama really going to win a second term?
I am a reluctant convert from the Rahe Landslide school to thinking that yes, barring a dramatic adverse turn of events, it's Obama in a '04 like win. The reasons? (1) an electorate much more susceptible to the politics of ethnic grievance than 1980's electorate was; (2) an electorate much less confident in their success in the private sector than 1980's electorate was; and (3) an electorate characterized by much more direct dependence on federal payments than the 1980 electorate was. I say this with tremendous sadness, for if I am right, it suggests that the only endpoint for statism in the US is a Greek-style collapse.