Is Obama really going to win a second term?
Many thanks to Diane for the kind introduction of me and my wife, Sabrina (who might be joining in from time to time). It’s great to be part of the conversation here at Ricochet!
I’ve been told that I’m bad at small-talk, so let’s get right to the point . . . is Obama really going to win a second term?
Let’s face it, this is the big question. The one that keeps supporters and opponents of the President up at night. It’s why each new poll shift and fundraising total sends the politically-obsessed on both sides of the aisle swinging toward relief or depression.
For Romney supporters/Obama opponents, it seems preposterous to think the President could win with the sputtering economy, a fizzled “stimulus,” Obamacare, and all the trouble in the world.
And yet . . . the polls show a tight election, with Romney typically close but trailing. The election forecast models mostly predict an Obama victory. These models look primarily at economic indicators and presidential approval from recent polling. The economic indicators, at least those used in the models, are bad for Obama but not so bad that they tank his prospects. Same goes for the President’s standing in the polls.
But the polls don’t tell us who will make up the actual electorate this November. Polling does a pretty good job of telling us a few things; a) the opinion, right now, of all adults, b) the opinion of all those who say they are registered voters (sometimes actual registered), and c) the opinion of “likely voters,” which means a pollster’s best guess at the kinds of people who will actually turn out.
I come at all of this from an academic political behavior background, not from straight polling/public opinion. What I find most interesting are what message experiments, like our PocketTrials, reveal about how certain kinds of voters move in response to political “treatments” like campaign ads, news clips or articles with new information. These kinds of experiments identify causation and add to knowledge in a way that traditional polls simply can’t.
But we have to start somewhere for a baseline. So what’s the best baseline? The polls, or are they hopelessly biased or inadequate? Which models, or are they hopelessly simplified for an election in a time like this?
I have some thoughts and some really interesting, big, but mostly overlooked academic datasets that I think help ground us, but I wanted to see what everyone thought about this at the outset.
Is it President Obama’s election to lose, or Governor Romney’s?
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Comments:
Mar '11
Re: Is Obama really going to win a second term?
My NRA stickers tend to discourage most vandalism.
That being said, I'm not seeing any real move by Romney here to turn things around. By NOT defending himself he's let the left define him here. Obama may not be liked per se, but Romney is reviled by the pro-union crown.
Steven Jones: I don't think yard signs & bumper stickers are an accurate gauge. Even here in suburban Dallas, I will not put up a sign, or put a sticker on my truck. I just don't trust liberals enough to think that I won't get a broken window from such a display.
On the other hand, a dearth of signage may be a clear signal that the Left is dispirited, since they don't harbor the same concern over vandalism. · 32 minutes ago
May '11
Re: Is Obama really going to win a second term?
skipsul what state are you in?
Sep '10
Re: Is Obama really going to win a second term?
Eeyore
Me neither. But I figured it would be my taillights. · 25 minutes ago
Isn't it sad that we fear vandalism by those "tolerant" liberals. They feel that it is ok to hate us.
Jul '11
Re: Is Obama really going to win a second term?
He has just begun to spend. The idea will be to peak in 5 weeks. If he fails we can kiss our financial futures good bye.
Eeyore
DocJay:
I highly doubt Romney loses though. This is his election to lose.
I sure hope he unveils his new sooper-secret enthusiasmizing mojo soon, cuz so far, I ain't feelin' it in the ethers. But, you know me... · 52 minutes ago
Nov '11
Re: Is Obama really going to win a second term?
Comparisons with 2010 are inapt.The 2012 electorate is more like the 2008 electorate than like the 2010 electorate--for the simple reason that 2010 was a midterm. I don't have the precise figures at hand, but I would guess that at least ten million more votes were cast for Obama in 2008 than for top-of-ticket Republican congressional candidatesin 2010. In swing states, that differential is even more favorable to Obama. Tea partiers who showed up at the polls 2010 will show up again in 2012. But the diiference between 2010 and 2012 is that Democrat voters who did not show up at the polls for the 2010 midterms will show up in 2012--not with numbers as big as 2008, but in sufficient strength to make it difficult for Romney to overcome the Obama's larger base. Romney's "small ball" focusing on the 800,000 persuadable undecideds in a few swing states is suited to his personality . . . but failed to take advantage of the potential for making this a "wave" election. If R/R wins, it will be "just barely" sans mandate. But if stuff keeps hitting the fan in the Mid-east, all bets are off.
Mar '11
Re: Is Obama really going to win a second term?
I don't know why people have such a hard time believing that Obama could win (and I think he will). "Presidents don't win re-elections with bad economies". Oh? Tell that to FDR, who won four of them in much worse economies. Romney simply doesn't have the charm of an FDR or an Obama, let alone a Reagan or even Dubya. He's just not that kind of guy. He's the manager saying "Hey elect me, I'm competent". Obama is selling a kind of messianic love, almost like a drug, and I'm not sure Romney can compete with that among the masses that now think they have the right to other people's money, and that it's the government's job to take it from "those rich people" and give it to them.
Voters not only are not always rational, they're frequently irrational. "Happy Days are here again!" and "Hope and Change" are ripped straight from the same book of pablum. And unless something drastically changes in our demographic path, it's only going to get worse.
Apr '11
Re: Is Obama really going to win a second term?
If Obama wins, then the United States is not the country it once was.
Dec '10
Re: Is Obama really going to win a second term?
Douglas makes a very good point.
Never underestimate the power of MAGICAL THINKING. In this instance, the people who wanted to believe that Obama would be the antidote to Bush's policies or who wanted to believe that Obama would demonstrate once and for all that race had nothing to do with one's ability to fulfill the duties of the Presidency are deeply invested in their worldview, and are willing to accept that if they just believe in Obama harder, he'll fulfill their expectations.
And that leads to the next adminition: Never underestimate the tendency of humans to DOUBLE DOWN on mistakes, especially when the alternative is to admit error. The people for whom Obama represents the power of Progressivism or the final vindication of affirmative action will engage in whatever acts of cognitive dissonance they must in order to protect their self-image of wisdom and goodness.
To overcome these tendencies, you have to make it socially acceptable to admit error and to view Obama in a different light: maybe he's bad at pushing Progressive policies (much less American ones), and maybe his failure says nothing about the capabilities of African-Americans in general.
Feb '11
Re: Is Obama really going to win a second term?
James Of England
Is your argument that King of Baindidn't severely hurt Mitt is that, if it had, Mitt would have abandoned principle, pandered and become a protectionist?
My argument is that most people haven't seen and don't care about those hit pieces, nor are they interested in hearing Romney tell us about his steely principles and the marvels of free trade a la George Bush.
I'm telling you, ceteris paribus, that the GOP is vastly weaker than it should be because of Bush and his political failure. Romney may win, may even win in a landslide- but the memory of George Bush is easily worth ten points to Obama.
I think there are enormous numbers of people who have given up on the US government. I note Pat Caddell has described the American people as in a prerevolutionary state.
Picking another policy example- I think a key moment in the collapse of the GOP was when Bush refused to secure the border. I note that Obama has roughly the same policy.
Tell me why people concerned with the border would be enthusiastic now, believing Romney will continue that same policy?
They aren't.
Dec '11
Re: Is Obama really going to win a second term?
While I do believe many of the polling samples are flawed, the main reason Romney is not running easily ahead of Obama is that he has not found enough support among the "none of the above" voters. Many people of color want to support Obama simply because he is "of color". Rent-seekers also support Obama because of his vision of government and their short-term needs/desires.
Many voters think a severe natural disaster within the Beltway would be a good start to fixing this country and should be on board with Romney. But they aren't going to come out to vote in large enthusiastic numbers unless they see a path for a sustained policy change in DC. Putting Paul Ryan on the ticket raise the possibility that this might be in Romney's thinking. Tell us the specific targets for the first 100 days, the first 1000 days. Tell us how you're going to beat Reid like a mule if he is still Senate Majority Leader, and how much better things will be if we capture the Senate. We have something to vote against. Give us something to vote FOR.
Jul '10
Re: Is Obama really going to win a second term?
Obama will lose by 6.625% popular vote. Cuz I said.
Oct '10
Re: Is Obama really going to win a second term?
CoveredUp: This wouldn't be the first time that an incumbent President was re-elected while suffering a major defeat in the previous mid-term election.
Clinton is the first example to come to mind, and I think that Reagan had a similar experience, if I'm not mistaken.
You're very selective in the history you provide. Tell us the job approval ratings, the economic indicators, and the job performance numbers of Reagan in 1984 and Clinton in 1996 before you conflate those two with today's Obama. And there was no Bradley effect to consider in 1984 or 1996.
Oh, and Obama didn't just suffer a "major" defeat in 2010. It was off-the-boards historic.
Other than that, point taken!
Edited on September 17, 2012 at 1:25pmApr '12
Re: Is Obama really going to win a second term?
Andrew
Eeyore
Me neither. But I figured it would be my taillights. · 25 minutes ago
Isn't it sad that we fear vandalism by those "tolerant" liberals. They feel that it is ok to hate us. · 6 hours ago
Is it that common? So I guess a Romney sticker on a Pyius woukd even be fair game.
Mar '11
Re: Is Obama really going to win a second term?
Ohio.
Jun '12
Re: Is Obama really going to win a second term?
I think (Hope) Romney will win. What I fear is he pulls out a narrow electoral college victory, but looses the popular vote, as this would set up a constitutional crisis, where calls for the elimination of the electoral college would reach a fever pitch. We need the college, as this was never supposed to be a direct democracy but rather a representative republic. State sovereignty has been ignored too long, and the college is one of the last bastions that force politicians to care about small states. The United States is a lot more than NYC or Los Angeles and Chicago, and I fear too narrow a victory for Romney could move us too far in this direction
Sep '12
Re: Is Obama really going to win a second term?
After listening to Pat Cadell's meltdown over the Romney campaign's shortcomings on the flagship podcast, I don't know what to think - and nervous. I am baffled by our electorate. And I think it's still anybody's guess about the outcome... looking forward to your own set of prognostications!
Sep '12
Re: Is Obama really going to win a second term?
Romney's to lose! Party identification and voter intensity trends are running against the incumbent, not to mention the weak recovery and chaos in Obama's foreign policy. Meanwhile the polls are using +D samples, thus not representing the above. Romney should win in a landslide with coattails. He merely as to avoid gaffes, pound what he would do instead of more of the same, and present himself as competent and trustworthy, his strong suits.
Apr '11
Re: Is Obama really going to win a second term?
Xennady
James Of England
Is your argument that King of Baindidn't severely hurt Mitt is that, if it had, Mitt would have abandoned principle, pandered and become a protectionist?
My argument is that most people haven't seen and don't care about those hit pieces, nor are they interested in hearing Romney tell us about his steely principles and the marvels of free trade a la George Bush.
Of course not. All they saw was a debate between some conservatives and almost all liberals on the one side and some conservatives on the other, about whether Mitt was an evil capitalist or whether all capitalism was good. There were arguments that the charges against Mitt were wholly false, but those were complicated and dull, so people took the easy route out and decided that both the bad guy making them and the guy who made his money out of impoverishing poor people were terrible human beings.
January was a very dark time for conservatism; thankfully, it was the only truly terrible patch of the cycle so far. Sadly, the impression took hold in January and has stuck. Again, the problem was domestic, not transnational, capitalism.
Apr '11
Re: Is Obama really going to win a second term?
Xennady
Romney may win, may even win in a landslide- but the memory of George Bush iseasily worth ten points to Obama.
I think there are enormous numbers of people who have given up on the US government. I note Pat Caddell has described the American people as in a prerevolutionary state.
Picking another policy example- I think a key moment in the collapse of the GOP was when Bush refused to secure the border. I note that Obama has roughly the same policy.
Tell me why people concerned with the border would be enthusiastic now, believing Romney will continue that same policy?
I agree that the Bush hangover is a problem, though not 10 points. I think Caddell is a less slimy but also less erudite Dick Morris.
Why would immigration voters think that Romney agreed with Bush? His policy is keenly anti-amnesty and pro-enforcement, including with the fence. He fought hard on immigration as governor and in lost elections. I have no idea how that could be confused with Obama's lawless amnesty giving.
Are you intending to segue, or if this is still a response to my King claim? I don't see the link.
Re: Is Obama really going to win a second term?
Astonishing . . . very much agreed . . . just put up a new post that gets at what you're talking about in hard numbers, using a great, if underutilized data resource.
Take a look . . . love to hear what you and others think; http://ricochet.com/main-feed/Is-Obama-really-going-to-win-Part-II-Big-Data-Baseline