Is Obama Looking at a Tuesday Beat Down?
This is supposed to be a week during which President Obama goes on the offensive.
Already today, he's done a cheesy, "non-political" but everything-to-do-with-politics photo-op in the Rose Garden, pushing for his jobs bill.
As for those pesky details as to how he plans to cover the $450 billion in new spending -- well, that can wait until next week (feel feel to make the obvious Wimpy hamburger analogy).
There's one potential problem with the President's push -- he might get pushed back in a big way tomorrow, in the form of two congressional special elections in Nevada and New York.
The Nevada race (to fill the seat vacated by Dean Heller, when he filled John Ensign's Senate seat) is looking more and more like a done deal for the GOP. Republican Mark Amodei has a double-digit lead in the 2nd Congressional District (this, according to Democratic pollsters).
The takeaways:
(1) Democrats tried to make this a referendum on evil Republican entitlement-wranglers, and apparently that belly-flopped;
(2) The Democratic candidate, Kate Marshall, tried to run to the right of her party on taxes and Obamacare - and that apparently belly-flopped;
(3) National Democrats didn't invest much in the race, suggesting a party that's on its heels (not to mention down in the dumps).
Then again, that race will get scant coverage on Wednesday morning if the polls are correct and the GOP pulls an upset in New York's 9th CD -- a seat that hasn't gone Republican since the Roarin' 20s (the answer to that trivia question: Andrew Peterson, who served there from 1921-23).
If so, it's a cause for major heartburn in Democratic circles.
And that's because . . .
1) Unlike Nevada, this isn't a case of Republicans holding serve and holding on to a seat that's already in the GOP column. Obama carried NY9 (the House seat formerly held by Chuck Schumer and Geraldine Ferraro) by 11 points in 2008. It should remain blue, even in a light-turnout special election.
2) The Republican in the race, Bob Turner, has made the contest a referendum on President Obama -- not the seat's former occupant, Anthony Weiner (whose fall from grace necessitated this election), but the current occupant of the Oval Office. Turner's gone after Obama for being soft on Israel, supporting construction of a mosque at the World Trade Center's Ground Zero, and Obamacare cutting in Medicare.
3) It shows the problems this White House has in a district that's heavily non-Hispanic white (71.6%). Sleeper element: almost 40% of the district's voters are Jewish, suggesting Obama has work to do in Florida.
4) If Turner does prevail tomorrow night, there's no easy way to spin the loss. Democrats will say it's a blessing in disguise -- a wake-up call for the President to change his policies. But that's admitting the President has a problem to begin with. They'll even be flip about the whole affair, pointing out that the district is targeted for extinction in the current redistrict. But that's ignoring the obvious embarrassment to the party's standard-bearer.
4) What a GOP pick-up in New York would signify is the uphill battle Obama faces between now and November 2012. His approval numbers are underwater in New York; union households in Pennsylvania -- you know them as Reagan Democrats -- don't want to give him a second term.
Democrats can click their heels together and repeat "Ponzi scheme" they all like. But by this time Wednesday morning, they might be looking at something worse than an unfavorable poll -- and that's a negative outcome at the polls.
My question to you: assuming the GOP does pick up NY9 tomorrow night, is this much ado about nothing, or a real sign of O's woes?
- Comment (8)
- · Quote
- · UnfollowFollow (0)
Comments :
Feb '11
Re: Is Obama Looking at a Tuesday Beat Down?
As I noted in another thread, fourteen months are an eternity in politics. A GOP win in the NY 9th would certainly be an encouragement, but shouldn't be taken as any more than that. Neither should a loss given the character of the district. Lastly, the left isn't invested in David Weprin the way they are in Obama.
Edited on Sep 12, 2011 at 12:47pmAug '11
Re: Is Obama Looking at a Tuesday Beat Down?
In regard to NY9, a friend of mine quipped "erections have consequences."
Jan '11
Re: Is Obama Looking at a Tuesday Beat Down?
If the electoral map is what Larry Sabato thinks it will be, he's still got a 247-206 lead in locked-in votes. He needs 23 votes to get to 270, where the GOP needs quite a few more.
On the other hand, if he's getting those 247 only because of party, and they're locked in only because they have to be, then maybe that's all he can get.
If the GOP wins the NY district, 247 may be the most Obama could hope for.
Feb '11
Re: Is Obama Looking at a Tuesday Beat Down?
Bill Whalen
union households in Pennsylvania -- you know them as Reagan Democrats -- don't want to give him a second term.
This should come as no surprise to anyone who took note of the 2010 results in PA. The administration's dismal economic performance is hurting them state wide. Further, it's rabid opposition to energy development is costing the Democrats far more votes in the Marcellus Shale belt than they are gaining from the eco fringe's attempts to whip up mindless hysteria over fracking. Barring cataclysm or self-immolation (I know that's asking a lot), the Republicans should have a decent shot at taking PA in 2012.
Edited on Sep 12, 2011 at 1:23pmApr '11
Re: Is Obama Looking at a Tuesday Beat Down?
What a GOP win in NY tells me is that if the economy does not improve, and there is no major scandal with the GOP POTUS candidate, we may be looking at calling the '12 election by 9 PM EST!!
BTW, this will be the only night in my life where I will be glued to the tv watching MSNBC.
Edited on Sep 12, 2011 at 1:53pmRe: Is Obama Looking at a Tuesday Beat Down?
If the Republicans take the Weiner district, it will be a terrible psychological blow to the Democrats, and you will hear calls for Obama's withdrawal from the nomination contest. If the Dems win by an eyelash, they will celebrate ostentatiously but they will brood on what it means for 2012. Either way, 2012 is the Republicans' to lose.
Feb '11
Re: Is Obama Looking at a Tuesday Beat Down?
Paul A. Rahe: If the Republicans take the Weiner district, it will be a terrible psychological blow to the Democrats ... Either way, 2012 is the Republicans' to lose.
Any worse than losing "Ted Kennedy's Senate Seat?" Granted, Obama was less frayed at that time.
There is no viable challenger to Obama. (Including Hilary Clinton. I seriously doubt she would run, for any number of reasons.) Successfully challenging a sitting president for the nomination is notoriously difficult. When finally forced to, the left will dutifully coalesce behind Obama.
As for 2012, you are probably correct if nothing untoward happens between now and November 2012. That is a risky bet. There is not much Obama can do to improve his position, unless one thinks a gutter campaign by his surrogates will help. The Republicans on the other hand will have ample opportunities to self destruct. If they are smart, they will also have opportunities to surge. As things sit right now, they can probably win. All that could radically change for better or worse in a few days or months
May '10
Re: Is Obama Looking at a Tuesday Beat Down?
Since NY23 was spun as a big Obama positive, the reverse ought to apply. Of course, he who writes the news story or runs the Spike also runs the Official Spin.