Is Nuclear Power Finished?
Konbanwa. Your correspondent is in Japan this weekend where the big story is electric power, specifically whether to generate more or do without.
Japan has 50 functioning reactors, capable of meeting 30% of the country's demand for electricity. The March 11, 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami destroyed the generating station at Fukushima, causing a meltdown of the the three operating reactors after floodwaters disabled emergency generators providing core coolant circulation. Subsequently, the Japanese government shut down all other nuclear power reactors to review and improve seismic safety.
The Japanese government estimates the total environmental radioactivity release from Fukushima at 10% of 1986's explosion and fire at the Chernobyl nuclear power station in Ukraine.
Now the Oi nuclear plant in Fukui prefecture is ready to resume operation and has obtained permission to restart its two reactors, but this move is proving deeply unpopular.
More than 10,000 protesters gathered outside the prime minister’s office on June 22 to criticize the government’s decision to restart two nuclear reactors that had been shut down for routine inspections.
Holding aloft banners and placards, the protesters--many arriving in the early evening after getting off work--chanted their opposition to the proposed restarts.
Environmental and other anti-nuclear activists in the United States are also protesting the move to reactivate the Ohi plant.
In the United States, antinuclear protesters delivered a letter addressed to the prime minister opposing the Oi facility's restart to the Japanese Consulate General in Los Angeles.
"Your decision is undemocratic. It is clear even from the United States that the Japanese public is not supporting you," the letter warns Noda. "You may reject this letter as outside interference. . . . However, the fallout of nuclear accidents does not know national borders (and) severely impacts the global environment."
Around three dozen people protested outside the consulate, including some residents from near California's San Onofre nuclear plant, which has been idlesince a steam generator leaked radioactive water in January.
"The only difference between us and Japan is they got the earthquake before we did," said activist Gene Stone, 58, who lives about 20 km from the idled plant.
Similar protests were held Friday on the West Coast at Japan's consulates in San Francisco and Portland, Oregon.
The earthquake last March that triggered the tsunami that destroyed Fukushima was the most powerful ever to strike Japan and the fifth strongest in the known history of the world. Despite the destruction of the back-up systems at the local nuclear power plant, the world-ending clouds of radioactivity prophesied by many alarmists and anti-nuclear activists never materialized.
The engineer in me looks at this and feels better about the intrinsic safety of nuclear power. After all, an antiquated nuclear plant is struck by the worst natural calamity in history, far beyond its design limits, and the environmental consequences are a small fraction of the damage wrought by engineers botching an emergency test on a Soviet reactor.
But many Japanese citizens evidently feel differently, even in the face of likely brownouts and blackouts later this summer as energy demand exceeds supply.
Germany is also aboard the anti-nuclear bandwagon, with Angela Merkel's government promising to shut down all its reactors--responsible for 23% of generating capacity--by 2022.
What do you think? Is nuclear power on it's way to the ash heap of history or will it stage a comeback?
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Dec '10
Re: Is Nuclear Power Finished?
These people who oppose nuclear power are fools. They are not basing their objections on the facts (e.g. "the fallout of nuclear accidents does not know national borders (and) severely impacts the global environment." - really? Fukushima leaked virtually nothing, after suffering the worst natural disaster one could imagine: multiple earthquakes and a tsunami. What better evidence do you need that nuclear power is safe?) but on emotion. They also apparently fail to consider the alternatives. Shut down these plants, and where will your electricity come from? Solar? Wind? Give me a break. Doing without is a non-starter.
Nuclear power is safe, clean, and efficient. There are risks, but engineers have perfected a system over decades that manages them well.
Mar '11
Re: Is Nuclear Power Finished?
Neither.
Nuclear power is not finished. Nuclear stations currently operating will continue to do so. In the US, utilities are reviewing their facilities for vulnerabilities and making changes based on lessons learned from the Fukushima accident. However, don't expect many (if any) new nuclear plants in the US any time soon. The reasons are economic. Nuclear stations are fantastically expensive to construct, but have relatively low operating costs compared to fossil-fueled stations. Once on line, a well-managed nuclear station makes a lot of money, grossing a million dollars a day or more depending on size and number of units. However, recent natural gas discoveries are making new nuclear stations too expensive to construct. So in the US at least, nuclear utilities are concentrating on life extensions and power uprates for their existing nuclear stations and foregoing the construction of new ones. Expect other countries to follow a similar strategy. Germany will gradually stop talking about closing its nuclear plants, and 2022 will come and go with the plants still running. Japan will bring most of its nuclear plants back on line in probably 5 - 10 years.
Dec '10
Re: Is Nuclear Power Finished?
I don't really see how many nations will have much of a choice. Oh, they can try to dismantle their existing nuclear infrastructure, pay a punishing price for doing so, and then bemoan their lack of resources, only to have to build it all over again.
All of this handwringing is pointless. If the seawall they built couldn't withstand a tsunami wave that big, build a higher one that even further protects the facility. Japan needs nuclear power plants. It has precious other options.
As much as I am pro-nuclear here in the US, I am comforted by the fact that we have a growing supply of natural gas thanks to Big Oil and the blessed technology of "fracking".
How about we do it all (nuclear, coal, natural gas, oil, wind [NIMBY, of course], solar [where there's, you know, sunlight most of the time], geothermal, whatever) and let the middle east stew in their oil until they get tired of the fact that we don't care any more? A guy can dream!
Apr '12
Re: Is Nuclear Power Finished?
My uncle was part of the nuclear science team who built the British nuclear stations just outside London in the 1950 s. he had little time for the peaceniks protesting and making dire predictions. He said that nuclear was one of the cleanest energies. Also, Sherrit Mines here in Canada lost coal business to the Ontario government who had made the political promise to shut down coal burning in Ontarioo. Due to shortage of energy as other green sources do not work as predicted, electricity is now bought from the USA and their coal burning plants. Ironically, the winds blow those coal pant pollution over the lake to Toronto. So, yes, nuclear is dead because government says so. In ten years, if the price of electricity keeps going up, they may revisit it.
Apr '11
Re: Is Nuclear Power Finished?
I'm no expert but it's my understanding that with the new designs, a plant can be built that wouldn't "overheat" even if it were swamped like the one in Fukushima.
Sep '11
Re: Is Nuclear Power Finished?
Wait'll this summer.
Texas has had numerous coal plants shut down by the EPA. Enough that they do not have the grid capacity that barely--barely--kept power on at peak demand last summer.
This summer?
There will be blackouts. Blackouts in the late afternoon, on hot summer days. And elderly people--and poor people--will die. That is as certain as the fact that the sun is coming up tomorrow.
And there is zip, zero, nada that the electric power industry can do about it--because Texas is an island, all by itself, with no connectivity to generating plants anywhere else. (There is an eastern U.S. grid, a western U.S. grid, and Texas. And you cannot connect them.)
When senior citizens die because of heat stroke in Texas, stable electric supply will become a lot more popular.
Jul '10
Re: Is Nuclear Power Finished?
It's often forgotten that the Fukushima Daiichi design was already obsolete, and the reactor was scheduled to be shut down before the tsunami hit.
When it becomes apparent that alternative sources can't keep up and prices spike, people's squeamishness about nuclear plants will disappear.
May '10
Re: Is Nuclear Power Finished?
Maybe when the coastal elites in New England are freezing in the dark, and Los Angelenos are rotting in the sun. Not before then though.
Aug '10
Re: Is Nuclear Power Finished?
If they succeed in phasing out this source, they are truly the new luddites.
Feb '11
Re: Is Nuclear Power Finished?
In the US, the sharp decline in natural gas prices has removed much of the pressure/incentive to build nuclear plants. But demand for natural gas is going to increase very significantly--for power generation, industrial feedstocks, transportation, LNG exports, home heating, etc.....and in a few years this is going to drive up the gas prices and thence the electricity prices. At that point, we will *wish* we had put more emphasis on nuclear and coal.
I posted some thoughts on natural gas here.
May '10
Re: Is Nuclear Power Finished?
Amid the hubbub over Fukushima and nuclear power in general, we lose sight of the seawalls that simply weren't built as high as they were supposed to be. For want of a nail....
By the way, if nuclear power is going away, someone needs to tell the folks building new reactors on two separate sites about a hundred miles from me.
Jan '11
Re: Is Nuclear Power Finished?
How many people died from the tsunami? How many people died from the radiation from Fukushima?Were most plants built in the 1970s? Are there safety differences between 40 year old vehicles and the autos of today?The greens will kill us all.....
Oct '10
Re: Is Nuclear Power Finished?
I was a fan of nuclear power until I read Veronique de Rugy's takedown in last month's reason. Those who have been fans for longer than I, any replies to her arguments?
Myth 1: Nuclear energy is a cheap alternative to fossil fuels.
Fact 1: It's not.
Myth 2: Risk is the main problem with nuclear power
Fact 2: Cost is the main problem.
Myth 3: The spread of nuclear power has stalled in the US due to a hostile regulatory environment.
Fact 3: Nuclear power has stalled because it is simply not profitable.
Myth 4: Nuclear energy is the key to energy independence.
Fact 4: More nuclear power doesn't mean less oil.
Jun '10
Re: Is Nuclear Power Finished?
Nuclear power is here to stay, but not in it's current iteration. Plants will become smaller, more efficient, more numerous, and nearer to the neighborhoods they serve.
Here is where American ingenuity can shine if it can overcome American bureaucracy.
Mar '11
Re: Is Nuclear Power Finished?
J. D. Fitzpatrick:
Myth 1: Nuclear energy is a cheap alternative to fossil fuels.
Fact 1: It's not.
Myth 2: Risk is the main problem with nuclear power
Fact 2: Cost is the main problem.
Myth 3: The spread of nuclear power has stalled in the US due to a hostile regulatory environment.
Fact 3: Nuclear power has stalled because it is simply not profitable.
Myth 4: Nuclear energy is the key to energy independence.
Fact 4: More nuclear power doesn't mean less oil.
1-3: The MIT study cited by de Rugy considers both capital and operating costs together. As I pointed out earlier, nuclear plants have extremely high capital costs but relatively low operating costs, which argues for keeping existing plants running as long as possible, but not building any new ones especially while natural gas is inexpensive. However, one cannot dismiss the regulatory environment as a factor; while necessary to ensure safety, it is one of the reasons that nuclear stations are expensive to construct.
4: This is true. Hardly any oil is used to generate electricity. More nuclear would displace coal and gas generation primarily, which we don't import.
Oct '11
Re: Is Nuclear Power Finished?
George Savage
The engineer in me looks at this and feels better about the intrinsic safety of nuclear power. After all, an antiquated nuclear plant is struck by the worst natural calamity in history, far beyond its design limits, and the environmental consequences are a small fraction of the damage wrought by engineers botching an emergency test on a Soviet reactor.
What do you think? Is nuclear power on it's way to the ash heap of history or will it stage a comeback? · · 5 hours ago
The Fukishima accident indeed proves exactly the contrary of the narrative that nuclear is unsafe, but after years of media conditioning and some millions of dollars from Greenpeace it is rather easy to make Groucho Marx supreme, so that people see what they feel instead of what is happening.
Maybe nuclear is going to survive in the long term thanks to China and India, because a lot of western countries are being feed Green piles for decades.
Re: Is Nuclear Power Finished?
J.D., thanks for the link. I will have to read the article in full. However, my off-the-cuff take is that much of the cost argument is circular: Greens ratchet up regulations in the name of safety to the point that nuke plants take forever and cost a fortune to build, then they shift the argument to one of cost-ineffectiveness.
The first commercial nuclear power plant was built 32 months at a cost of $72 million during the Eisenhower administration, suggesting that unaffordable construction costs have more to do with activist-inspired red tape than immutable physical laws.
May '10
Re: Is Nuclear Power Finished?
Samuel, very good point. China and India are proof of a nuclear power future. And that there will always be some society hungry enough to accept the realities of science and economy. Robert E Lee is correct, if the USA can get ahead of the curve we can gain a tremendous edge, trailer sized buried reactors are the future!
Apr '12
Re: Is Nuclear Power Finished?
Activist red tape was spoken about by the CEO of Enbridge. Canada's government is speaking up about who is funding these innocuous sounding groups such as Darryl Hannah going to Washington as the Keystone Pipeline was being approved or not by Obama. Oil companies in the US were suspected of that sabotage I believe. No doubt that activists add years. Enbridge said activist hearings will last for years.
May '11
Re: Is Nuclear Power Finished?
Indeed, the meltdowns were only at the Fukushima #1 plant, while the Fukushima #2 plant just a few miles up the coast suffered the same disasters in the same area but were shut down safely. I could be wrong, but I believe it had something to do with the flood pumps simply being elevated at the #2 plant, whereas the older plant had them in the basement where they were swamped. If Fukushima #1 is to be held as an example of nuclear power's un-safety, then #2 should be a shining example of how safe it can be.
It's also important to remember the death toll from radiation at Fukushima is still zero.