Is Mexico the Next Afghanistan?
As that country devolves into lawlessness, with drug killings all along the border, some people think so. Rick Perry, governor of Texas, does:
“I think we have to use every aspect of law enforcement that we have, including the military,” Perry said. “Any means that we can [use] to run these people off our border and to save Americans’ lives, we need to be engaged in.”
Perry has been a vocal proponent of deploying more military forces to the U.S.-Mexico border, hand-delivering a request to President Barack Obama in August.
And when you think about it, all of the signs point a certain way: Spiraling violence, a breakdown of political leadership, a corrupt police force, refugee camps -- if you didn't know what country we were talking about, you'd assume we were talking about someplace in Africa.
Redstate does the thought experiment:
In 2013 and beyond, though, all bets are off. If the Mexican government cannot contain the violence in that country, or more bloodshed occurs on the U.S. side of the border, either the Mexican government may request humanitarian aide, or the U.S. would be justified in acting unilaterally to go into Mexico to end the drug cartels’ brutal terrorism (it’s not like it hasn’t happened before). In fact, if the violence on the U.S. side of the border does not cease, or escalates further, whomever is sitting in the oval office will be hard pressed not to go into Mexico.
None of this sounds like a good news.
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Dec '10
Re: Is Mexico the Next Afghanistan?
Robert McKay
Foxman
There is too much money involved. If you shut down one path, they will find another. It is like wack-a mole. If somebody dies from drug use, it is that person's fault. Innocents are dying for our misguided policies. · Dec 13 at 1:12pm
The other paths are likely to be less harmful. I'll use another prohibition example: removing the ban on alcohol did not destroy the mafia, but it did reduce their cashflow, forcing them to diversify into other areas and there was significantly less violence in their new lines of business. Would you rather deal with the South Side Gang in the height of prohibition or the racketeering, union-dominating mafia of the post war years? · Dec 13 at 2:05pm
Edited on Dec 13 at 02:07 pm
Reread what you just wrote. You appear to be conceding my position. Are you?
May '10
Re: Is Mexico the Next Afghanistan?
Sisyphus:
This fight is about the kids in the margins, and giving them a shot at some kind of a life. We do not need a return to the 19th Century opium din mindset.
I'm sorry, but that's nonsense. It's generally a sign of a weak position for someone to appeal 'to the children', but this is particularly galling - you really think a failed war, one that made drugs cheaper and more readily available, is helping kids 'in the margins'?
The argument about the 'good guys' pursuing the war is another classic red herring. If a war is unwinnable, it doesn't matter how great the intentions are. There's a reason we're not invading NK right now - we would lose. You don't keep fighting a losing war just to make the people who are in it feel good.
What we really don't need is a continuance of prohibition mentality. You will never, ever get rid of drugs. But there is no reason to believe that making them illegal or fighting a war against them has a net positive effect (just like with alcohol and gun control).
Dec '10
Re: Is Mexico the Next Afghanistan?
Re: Comment #18. From a stricly selfish point of view that would be great if they could move the problem somewhere else, not so close to my family and business. The other aspect of securing the border obviously would be to stem the tide of illegal immigration, and all the related abuse etc. It's a two-fer, and the good thing about it the US pulls all the strings on their own side of the border so it conceivable could get done. Amazing that it doesn't get done though. My guess is that the vast majority of mexicans living on the border would favor having the US seal off the border - except for the border checkpoints of course. Sealing the border would enable the northern Mexican towns to get their crime under control. While we're at it, I don't know why Calderon doesn't flood the zone with another 100,000 troops - and if he doesn't have them all maybe he could ask the US for some assistance. Significant military involvement on both sides of the border, among other things, is likely the only hope.
Dec '10
Re: Is Mexico the Next Afghanistan?
If Mexico is to be the next Afghanistan, who is their Pakistan? Is there an outside power whose meddling in Mexico's affairs we tolerate, or is Mexico's situation all home-grown?
May '10
Re: Is Mexico the Next Afghanistan?
Foxman
There is too much money involved. If you shut down one path, they will find another. It is like wack-a mole. If somebody dies from drug use, it is that person's fault. Innocents are dying for our misguided policies. · Dec 13 at 1:12pm
If you remove a source of income, isn't it logical that less money is involved? And while it's true that crime will always exist, cutting off venues is the best way to fight it. You can't stop crime in one step, and you can't ignore the positive benefits of society resulting from intelligent steps that help fight crime. As Mr. McKay says, we slowly squeezed the mafia out by getting rid of an idiotic law they were exploiting, but also by concurrent social improvement (which cannot proceed apace with criminal control, but does result from free enterprise) making the mafia's positive draw obsolete.
I can't guarantee that legalization would fix the problem, but we've tried the alternative and it made everything worse. So what is there to lose? Should we just keep digging the hole forever?
May '10
Re: Is Mexico the Next Afghanistan?
WC is killing me ... also want to point out that the only success we had with the drug war was in moving production, since production is easy to spot and destroy. That was one of the bigger contributors to the situation in Latin America. They became the producers and then helped kill the mafia by becoming the new crime gangs. And all we can do is arrest low-level dealers and revolve them back into the street.
If production and distribution were legal within the US, you would see a homegrown market brought into an already (mostly) lawful society. This is somewhat evident in states that allow medicinal marijuana.
It can't be stated with absolute certainty that this would work, but it seems to require willful ignorance or refusal to accept fundamental laws of economics and human nature to doubt it would be an improvement on the current situation. I'm sure the fans of Prohibition were equally adamant as to the righteousness of their cause, protecting the kids, saving us from ourselves, etc. They were just as wrong.
Dec '10
Re: Is Mexico the Next Afghanistan?
Sisyphus:
This fight is about the kids in the margins, and giving them a shot at some kind of a life. We do not need a return to the 19th Century opium din mindset. · Dec 13 at 1:39pm
Edited on Dec 13 at 01:41 pm
This fight is about the kids who are not involved, but who are being gunned down in the street. The fact these are mostly Mexican kids changes nothing.
Aug '10
Re: Is Mexico the Next Afghanistan?
I just watched Jennifer Griffin on Fox show how porous the Mexico ?Guatemala border is and the boats that are bringing in the coke from Colombia.
People continue to think that Mexico will be cooperative on this issue.I imagine that they are trying to figure out what to do in the reality of a sealed border due to two issues: the number one and two sources of cash for the Mexican economy. Yup, the #1 and #2 sources of cash for that country are wire transfers from the workers in el norte and the money that the drug lords launder, reinvest, and distribute.
With that in mind, I don't think there will be a rush to judgement on the Mexican side, and since we work in unison with their officials, they will obfuscate as long as possible.
Edited on December 14, 2010 at 12:38amOct '10
Re: Is Mexico the Next Afghanistan?
Foxman
Robert McKay
Foxman
The other paths are likely to be less harmful. I'll use another prohibition example: removing the ban on alcohol did not destroy the mafia, but it did reduce their cashflow, forcing them to diversify into other areas and there was significantly less violence in their new lines of business. Would you rather deal with the South Side Gang in the height of prohibition or the racketeering, union-dominating mafia of the post war years?
You appear to be conceding my position. Are you?
I'm a little unclear now - your position seems to be that there is nothing we can do to shut the cartels down since they will "find another path." I'm saying that if we force them into another path that is still a net gain for us, whereas it seems like you are saying that even if we did strangle the drug trade they'd just find another and the problem would go on unabated.
Oct '10
Re: Is Mexico the Next Afghanistan?
I also live in Mexico - but for five or six months of each year. The country is a very peaceful place. The exceptions, as they have always been, have been the border towns. Anyone who grew up in the U.S. has heard about the lawlessness of the border towns. They are destinations for the bad guys and have been for a long time. Now they are being contested by drug cartels and the Mexican government.
I don't want to minimize the possibility of getting involved with a drug war but I must say that nearly all of the victims have been involved in the trade. Stay away from that. It is more likely that you will be part of violence in any U.S. city. Or almost any other country. Check the stats.
May '10
Re: Is Mexico the Next Afghanistan?
Tecate or Modelo is great out of a can!
May '10
Re: Is Mexico the Next Afghanistan?
I hope the problem is solved... I am attending a wedding in Playa del Carmen in May.
Dec '10
Re: Is Mexico the Next Afghanistan?
Try taking a walk through a state or national forest in California. You'll stumble on marijuana fields tended and guarded by illegal immigrants with some very nasty firearms, working for the illegal growers serving the medical marijuana market. You see, nobody enforces the regulations in California that mandate that medical marijuana outlets sell only product raised by members of their cooperatives. So there remains a huge demand for illegally-grown pot, and a huge and deadly web of illegal growing operations.
Aug '10
Re: Is Mexico the Next Afghanistan?
If any one shares my frustation with finding good, in depth reporting on this very serious issue, I was encouraged to find out about Amexica: War Along the Borderline, by Ed Vulliamy.
Once again the inimatable Leonard Lopate provides a helpful interview of the author.
I am listening to the interview now, I suspect this book will be more helpful than Charles Bowden's Murder City book, which is very informative but an emotionally taxing read.
Clearly we need to seal the border. The more I read the less hopeful I am that we can succeed, but we must give it our best shot.
The sheer length of the border is one problem. The volume of imports from the border factories is another. The determination of the narcos to get through is certain.
The more we succeed in sealing the border, the greater the pressure on our enforcement personnel will be. Plato O Plomo, Silver or Lead, get paid or get killed, that is how they got this far. They will not abandon that policy at the border.
Welcome to the future. There is no easy way out.
Re: Is Mexico the Next Afghanistan?
AtheistConservative: WC is killing me ... also want to point out that the only success we had with the drug war was in moving production, since production is easy to spot and destroy. That was one of the bigger contributors to the situation in Latin America. They became the producers and then helped kill the mafia by becoming the new crime gangs. And all we can do is arrest low-level dealers and revolve them back into the street.
If production and distribution were legal within the US, you would see a homegrown market brought into an already (mostly) lawful society. This is somewhat evident in states that allow medicinal marijuana.
It can't be stated with absolute certainty that this would work, but it seems to require willful ignorance or refusal to accept fundamental laws of economics and human nature to doubt it would be an improvement on the current situation. I'm sure the fans of Prohibition were equally adamant as to the righteousness of their cause, protecting the kids, saving us from ourselves, etc. They were just as wrong. · Dec 13 at 2:59pm
My untheoretical question: what happens when PRI reclaims power and stops fighting the cartels?
Oct '10
Re: Is Mexico the Next Afghanistan?
James Poulos, Ed.
My untheoretical question: what happens when PRI reclaims power and stops fighting the cartels? · Dec 13 at 6:39pm
Actually there is more to be concerned about than the PRI returning to power. At the last Presidential election Obrador, the Socialist/Marxist candidate came close to defeating FeCal. The far left is stronger than many think in Mexico.
Aug '10
Re: Is Mexico the Next Afghanistan?
Well, let's see if the Izquierdo can solve it !!!! Commies and drugs have been fun to watch.
Let's hope they can inspire the people, the country itself to rise up and cure it from within. I'd hate to change my avatar when there's chatter.
Dec '10
Re: Is Mexico the Next Afghanistan?
Robert McKay
your position seems to be that there is nothing we can do to shut the cartels down since they will "find another path."
That is exactly my position. We have been trying to shut this down for forty years. FORTY! It is not going to happen. Face it, we cannot do it. Even if we could build a wall and put in listening devices for tunnels, they would find a way.
Edited on December 14, 2010 at 4:46amAug '10
Re: Is Mexico the Next Afghanistan?
James Poulos, Ed.
My untheoretical question: what happens when PRI reclaims power and stops fighting the cartels? · Dec 13 at 6:39pm
I would be interested to know how remote or likely the possibilty is that President Calderon's succesor could be a puppet for one or more of the cartels, thus allowing them to shape both domestic and foreign policy. He sometimes defends his war on drugs with this argument.
It is maddening to think in terms of Calderon and the Mexican Army vs The Narcos and The Horror because some Mexican Army elements also rape, murder and traffic drugs and the wealthy elite have brokered some accord to mitigate their exposure to kidnapping and murder.
Our American template of hero and villain simply does not apply.
Oct '10
Re: Is Mexico the Next Afghanistan?
Steve in Texas (on the border): Have been living and working here for 7 years, have family and run companies on both sides of the border. The border needs to be sealed, use whatever means possible, lives will be saved.
Separately, I would have joined sooner but I the Starbucks Latte cost thing bothered the heck out of me. The few times I've been to Starbucks I ordered a "medium regular coffee", it's as if I was speaking a different language. If Ricochet had said, same price as a couple of pint cans of Budweiser, now that would have represented a worthwhile sacrifice and I would have signed up quite a while back. · Dec 13 at 9:10am
Here's a thought experiment:
What happens if Calderon initiates a ceasefire in his war vs the drug cartels? Will it reduce the horrific violence in Mexico? If Calderon did not go after the cartels when he won the presidency in 2006, would the situation be much much better for Mexico?
What if Calderon lost in the next election &was replaced by a candidate that was sponsored by Narco money, will we see more peace and order?