Is Marco Rubio Really About to Ruin the Republican Party?
Some high-profile conservatives, including Ann Coulter and the editors of National Review, think Senator Marco Rubio is making a big mistake in his push for immigration reform.
Embedded in many of these critiques — sometimes subtly, sometimes not — is the worry that a naive Rubio is inadvertently handing Democrats a permanent political majority. Not only would millions of currently illegal immigrants from Mexico and other Latin American nations eventually become citizens and reliably vote Democratic, but this de facto amnesty would lure millions more into crossing the southern border.
Bad for Republicans? Sure. But also bad news, so goes the theory, for anyone in favor of pro-market economic policies since Latinos in general seem to favor bigger government and higher taxes. So we’re talking not just a permanent Democratic majority but a permanent Big Government majority.
But here’s the other side of that trade:
1. While immigration reform alone won’t make most Hispanics switch from D to R, it is the gateway policy needed before conservatives can begin to make their case to that community. And even though future Republican presidential candidates could conceivably win doing as poorly among Hispanics as Mitt Romney did — at least for another election, maybe two — such a weak showing leaves little margin for error and makes a large, Reaganesque GOP win improbable.
2. Immigration reform would nudge conservatives and Republicans to move beyond an economic agenda — both in terms of policy and messaging — that’s been focused almost exclusively on a) debt reduction, and b) directly meeting the needs of business and entrepreneurs. Keep all that stuff, of course, but what about education and health care reform and the tax code’s anti-parent bias? A populist, middle-class agenda won’t just help win the votes of Hispanics, but also the votes of millions of middle-income and working-class Americans of whatever race and ethnicity who think the GOP and conservative policies have nothing to offer them.
3. Even if it will be initially hard to move the Hispanic vote rightward, immigration reform sends a signal to other groups — Asians, women, younger voters — that the GOP is an open, inclusive, and compassionate party. Recall that exit polls showed 53% of 2012 voters thought Obama was “more in touch” with people like themselves — and of that group 81% voted for Obama. As Bloomberg noted:
For a little perspective, consider the votes of another minority – Asians. Romney won among all voters making more than $100,000 a year by a margin of 54-44. Asian-Americans happen to be the highest-earning group in the U.S., out-earning whites, and they generally place enormous emphasis on family. A perfect fit for Republicans, no?
No. Asians voted for Obama by 73-26; they were more Democratic than Hispanics. It’s possible that Hispanics and Asians are more communitarian than individualistic, leading them to identify more with Democrats than Republicans. But most immigrants, like most other Americans, possess both strains in their political DNA. (People rarely pull up roots and move to a new land without a strong sense of individualism.)
Rubio isn’t selling a political solution. He’s offering only an opportunity.
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Comments:
Jan '11
Re: Is Marco Rubio Really About to Ruin the Republican Party?
Good points James. One thing that people tend to forget it that what's good for a political party, may not be good for the nation.
In deciding political policy, politicians should put the nation first, above the their party. I think that's what Rubio is doing.
Immigration is what has propelled our birthrate, and kept the US from the dismal scenarios that Europe and Japan face, where they are paying people to have children. Immigration keeps our population fresh, with new waves of hopeful who see the US as the land of opportunity.
Dec '10
Re: Is Marco Rubio Really About to Ruin the Republican Party?
All of this gamesmanship and posturing is utterly useless until we break the dinosaur media.
You won't be "perceived" as compassionate, because the media will be there to dutifully report about how much you hate [insert ethnic group here].
They have the megaphone, and they determine what most people in these groups hear.
Until we figure out a viable way to bitchslap them and take away the megaphone, all this other stuff is pointless.
What we're going to end up with, is a huge democrat voter majority coupled with a media that STILL calls us racist bigoted homophobes at every turn.
The worst of all possible worlds, because the people steering the ship on our side can't figure out that this needs to be a process, wherein certain actions have to come first.
Beat the media first, pander after.
Edited on February 1, 2013 at 1:34amMay '10
Re: Is Marco Rubio Really About to Ruin the Republican Party?
I'll give Rubio the benefit of the doubt and believe he's simply naive thinking the Democrats will go along with meaningful enforcement.
But he needs to wise up quick. Can anyone reasonably think that there is the remotest possibility of meaningful border and immigration enforcement as long as Barack Obama is president?
Jul '12
Re: Is Marco Rubio Really About to Ruin the Republican Party?
First link is broken.
http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/01/is-rubio-really-about-to-ruin-the-republican-party/to%20turn%20the%20whole%20nation%20into%20California,%20in%20the%20foolish%20hope%20of%20winning%20one%20last%20election.
It should point to http://www.anncoulter.com/columns/2013-01-30.html
RUBIO'S AMNESTY: A PATH TO OBLIVION FOR THE GOP
January 30, 2013
Edited on February 1, 2013 at 2:35amOct '10
Re: Is Marco Rubio Really About to Ruin the Republican Party?
Oh, how I detest this word “Hispanic”. What we are talking about, within the margin of error, is illegal immigrants from Mexico, not those who have crept in from Catalonia or infiltrated from Argentina or Chile. Those they call “Hispanics” are more diverse in their origins and outlooks than the bulk of the U.S. population in 1960. But “Hispanics” today are mostly of Mexican origin, and have no experience whatsoever of living in a pluralistic, multi-party polity governed by the rule of law. You need only roll the phrase “Institutional Revolutionary Party” off your tongue to see how large is the gap.
The evidence from 30 years of elections is that these “Hispanics” vote between 60% and 70% for Democrats, regardless of the policies of the Republican candidate. Therefore, the more you enrol as voters, the larger the Democratic vote. This is not lost on Democratic strategists.
The thought that a well-meaning senator of Cuban ancestry will reverse this decades-long trend seems a fantasy to me, since immigrants of Mexican ancestry don't seem to like those who hail from Cuba very much.
Dec '10
Re: Is Marco Rubio Really About to Ruin the Republican Party?
"A populist, middle-class agenda won’t just help win the votes of Hispanics, but also the votes of millions of middle-income and working-class Americans of whatever race and ethnicity who think the GOP and conservative policies have nothing to offer them."
I agree with this.
The problem, though, is that importing more people into a country with an employment problem is not a populist, middle-class agenda item.
Jul '12
Re: Is Marco Rubio Really About to Ruin the Republican Party?
Well we do in effect pay people to have children. It is called EIC and CTC.
Oct '10
Re: Is Marco Rubio Really About to Ruin the Republican Party?
"1. While immigration reform alone won’t make most Hispanics switch from D to R, it is the gateway policy needed before conservatives can begin to make their case to that community."
Baloney. I happen to think these ideas would provide a "gateway" to those communities without sacrificing one iota of principle or integrity.
"3. Even if it will be initially hard to move the Hispanic vote rightward, immigration reform sends a signal to other groups — Asians, women, younger voters — that the GOP is an open, inclusive, and compassionate party."
More baloney. Did you forget just exactly who has the exclusive power in America to disseminate narratives and signals? The friggin' media! Again, these ideas will do what you want done in #1 and #3, above, without capitulating to the Left.
My baloney has a first name, it's M-a-r-c-o. My baloney has a second name, it's R-u-b-i-o.
Edited on February 1, 2013 at 1:50amJan '11
Re: Is Marco Rubio Really About to Ruin the Republican Party?
I'm inclined to worry about whether it's the best policy first, and then worry about the perceptions later, because I completely agree with CoolHand ... they're going to screw us either way.
May '10
Re: Is Marco Rubio Really About to Ruin the Republican Party?
If I'm gonna get screwed, I'd at least like to be kissed. Where's my free stuff? I'd like the abolition of property tax and a unicorn pony for starters.
Aug '12
Re: Is Marco Rubio Really About to Ruin the Republican Party?
I happened to hear Rush Limbaugh put forward a proposal (that he said he had made a couple of years ago): Give them all citizenship, with the penalty that they cannot vote for 25 years.
I like that. Take the political advantage away from the Dems and see how many still care.
Dec '12
Re: Is Marco Rubio Really About to Ruin the Republican Party?
Do we want the Republican party to be like the Democratic party--always basing policy positions on a calculation of benefit/loss to the party?
Our laws are legitimately made, and they deserve to be enforced. If we believe in the rule of law, we believe that. It is not our business or concern to "bring people out of the shadows," but to make good laws and then have them enforced. Mexican illegal immigrants might be good for aspects of the country or bad, but they have broken the law. Defending the law should be our first concern.
By the way, these are not naive and foolish people who blundered into "the shadows" heedlessly. They made a choice of what they considered the better of evils. Of course like most people they would like to get the most out of the situation, but they are not victims--or if they are, it is of the Mexican government, not ours.
Jan '12
Re: Is Marco Rubio Really About to Ruin the Republican Party?
MJBubba: I happened to hear Rush Limbaugh put forward a proposal (that he said he had made a couple of years ago): Give them all citizenship, with the penalty that they cannot vote for 25 years.
I like that. Take the political advantage away from the Dems and see how many still care. · 27 minutes ago
And while you're at it, add an amendment to the bill that members of Congress may not be paid lobbyists for 25 years , after they retire!
Jan '12
Re: Is Marco Rubio Really About to Ruin the Republican Party?
Senator Rubio is motivated by at least three possible concerns:
* What is best for American
* What is best for the Republican Party
* What is best for Marco's chances in the 2014 presidential primary
In what order do you place these considerations?
Jul '12
Re: Is Marco Rubio Really About to Ruin the Republican Party?
This still sounds like Two Santa Clauses to me. If one says "Here's free stuff!" and the other says "Here's the opportunity for you and your children to live a great life!" I think people will still go with Santa #1. "Gimme the free stuff and I'll make the great life myself."
In other words, I don't think we win on this one, period. But I'm not a giddy optimist like Mark Steyn.
Jan '11
Re: Is Marco Rubio Really About to Ruin the Republican Party?
Amazing. According to this economist Republicans are going to gain props with the American middle-class by undermining its interests and focusing instead on the interests of poor Mexican migrants. And we'll look cool and with-it, too.
I guarantee you Mr. P. also thinks it would be a good idea to grant legal status - even citizenship! - to technology graduates from other countries and to high-tech workers abroad. After all, our modern, information-based economy needs them.
Heaven forbid the business leaders and corporations who lobby for the quick fix of immigration channel their efforts instead into repairing the US education system that is failing them so badly.
Heaven forbid they give priority to finding and training Americans to move into these high-tech jobs, rather than importing cheap labor in their new variation of "out-sourcing."
Mr. P - If you want the Republican Party to attract the votes of middle-class Americans, white and black, city and country, young and old, how about advocating that we put the interests of middle-class Americans first?
And not years from now, in some utopian multicultural fictional economy that graduate school taught you to imagine, but here and now.
Dec '10
Re: Is Marco Rubio Really About to Ruin the Republican Party?
I'm willing to give Rubio the benefit of a doubt that he believes he's doing what's right. That benefit will evaporate shortly after the bill is introduced without any mechanism requiring enforcement as a prerequisite to normalization.
At that point I expect him to oppose it with gusto.
May '11
Re: Is Marco Rubio Really About to Ruin the Republican Party?
Either we are to be a free country again or we won't. Freedom doesn't include fences at the border. If freedom is the promise of America, then the more people coming here to be free, the better. We need not include socialism in the freedom to be here.
May '11
Re: Is Marco Rubio Really About to Ruin the Republican Party?
My grandmother immigrated here from the Azores 111 years ago. My story isn't unusual. We have a long history of hating the new comers, but that doesn't make it right. The New Collossus says it all very clearly. I guess it only applies to special groups.
Sep '12
Re: Is Marco Rubio Really About to Ruin the Republican Party?
We're not going to be deporting all these people so let's just find a way forward. Immigration from Mexico is negative right now. Let's see what's in the bill, but we need to be flexible and get past this issue. It's not 1986. Technology will allow much better border security . Let's have some faith in conservative principles and the good sense of immigrants. Red states are doing a lot better than blue, and that has got to be obvious to people as time goes on.