Is Madison Obama's Waterloo?
How appropriate to consider the notion that Barack Obama’s presidency could come unspooled in a city named for our fourth president and the father of the Constitution.
Watching the protests in Wisconsin and getting a sense that this is the beginning of a bigger wave that is going to the grip the nation in the near future, I’m struck by the fact that President Obama may be sewing the seeds of his own undoing.
I’ve been unhappily pessimistic about the chance for a Republican presidential candidate to win in 2012, because I’ve believed since the midterms that President Obama has done just enough nodding towards the center to keep his head above water. If next year features a weak Republican field and an economy that’s leaning even slightly into recovery I think that may be enough to get him by, albeit by very slim margins (that potential for an anemic incumbent victory is one of many parallels I see between 2012 and 2004).
If the fight with public sector unions comes to be a defining feature of 2011, however (and I think the odds are pointing in that direction) – and if the Obama Administration’s reaction continues to track with its response to the situation in Wisconsin – I think it’s very possible that it’s game over for the White House.
Having Organizing for America – a group that is an offspring of the Obama campaign – weigh in decisively on the side of the unions and having the president himself offer verbal support is an unforced error. And it exposes the fatal flaw of the Obama as centrist model: in moments of grand political import, the man is more committed to ideological orthodoxy than to political survival.
As a result, the White House has just allied itself with the most distasteful actors in the biggest domestic issue of our era. It has also reinforced the idea that there’s no corner of American life in which it won’t meddle. Apparently Washington’s ministrations to a benighted nation are going so smoothly that the White House has plenty of time (and competence) to weigh in on how Arizona should handle illegal immigration, how New Jersey should build tunnels, and how Wisconsin should structure public employment.
What’s worse, the President has essentially given up his moral standing as a fair broker by weighing in on this matter as an interested party. Having Organizing for America take the lead on this issue – and do so with a dramatically partisan bent – puts flesh for the first time on the epithet of Obama as “community organizer-in-chief”. And it makes all of his promises of fiscal sobriety sound like the sweet nothings of a man who has some experience getting you out of this bar and back to his place.
Obama knows that the unions are far too important a part of his coalition to abandon in a key moment. He doesn’t seem to understand, however, how deeply they’ve fallen out of favor with the public. The resulting wedge may finally sever what’s left of the bond between the president and the American people.
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May '10
Re: Is Madison Obama's Waterloo?
Oh, how I hope you are right. I truly do.
Re: Is Madison Obama's Waterloo?
Troy, I agree with every word of that--even the entire mood in which you write. I'd been feeling gloomy, too, but events over the past few days--really, over the past 12 hours--have transformed my thinking. Obama has made a serious and perhaps irrecoverable error. Determined, accomplished governors have moved to the center of the debate--Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie, and, now, Scott Walker--making Mitt Romney and even Sarah Palin look dated and, somehow, light or unserious, surely a salutary development for the GOP's 2012 prospects. And--an item you didn't mention, but will probably do so in a post you're composing right now--today the House Republicans voted to defund Planned Parenthood, an act of both moral and fiscal courage, and yet this, an event that was utterly unthinkable only a few weeks ago, proved only the third or fourth story on most newscasts this evening. Why? Because Republicans are pressing so hard on so many fronts that the left can scarcely keep up.
Obama, the public employees unions, the mainstream media are all on the defensive.
I sleep tonight a happy man.
Jul '10
Re: Is Madison Obama's Waterloo?
I think the turning point was the revelation, within the past year, that public sector employees enjoy much better compensation than their private sector peers.
We'd all become accustomed to the laziness and indifference of workers in the postal service and departments of motor vehicles. We resented their lifetime job security and their cushy conditions of employment. But we could at least console ourselves that those advantages came at the cost of lower compensation than ours.
The shocking revelation that these mooches not only had better benefits and job security, but also enjoyed higher compensation has generated rightful outrage.
Aug '10
Re: Is Madison Obama's Waterloo?
Careful. It's the first day of a showdown, and there isn't an identifiable national movement against unions. The Administration can write this off as a local dispute and choose to stay out of it.
Ironically, as I type this, Howard Beale is giving his "I'm mad as hell and I'm not gonna take it any more!" rant on my TV screen. I'll pretend it's a sign and end mildly optimistic.
Jan '11
Re: Is Madison Obama's Waterloo?
I believe what needs to be realized is that this is essentially public employees protesting against their employers for higher wages, ie, against "the government". As more and more Americans become employed or reliant on the government, I think we are very few who are either self-employed or not reliant on the largesse of the government, when it comes to the minds of the media.
Oct '10
Re: Is Madison Obama's Waterloo?
I agree this has the potential to be President Obama’s “Waterloo”. However, it is early, and it will be hand-to-hand combat. If the public sector unions lose this battle, they will lose their political influence for several generations. As vicious as the counter attack from the left will be, I think it is important we don’t descend to their level. Engage the debate as responsible adults. Attack the union position, not the public sector employees.
This is Obama’s second unforced error in two weeks. His unserious budget with no mention of entitlement reform was the first. Watching John Boehner’s strategy play out in the House, with debate, amendment, and vote to try and achieve fiscal responsibility is the second leg in a winning 2012 strategy, assuming the 2012 Budget proposal includes a proposal for entitlement reform.
Adding the repeal of Obamacare gives us three sound pillars for a vision of a return to more individual responsibility and less federal government that someone like a Mitch Daniels can run on. I don’t think current front runners like Romney and Palin could. I am more optimistic than I was.
Edited on Feb 19, 2011 at 12:17amOct '10
Re: Is Madison Obama's Waterloo?
Everytime Obama does something extremely Left-wingish, a sane guy like Mitch Daniels becomes more and more attractive in my eyes.
Nov '10
Re: Is Madison Obama's Waterloo?
I had been thinking that the Republican 2012 nominee would be either Barbour, Pawlenty, or Daniels. Because of this and because of Daniels' good showing last week, in my estimation, he has pulled ahead of the other two, at least for the time being and Christie is now in my list of likely nominees.
Dec '10
Re: Is Madison Obama's Waterloo?
Here's hoping this erodes the bump in the job approval polls he managed to get from the Congressional lame duck session and the SOTUS.
I want to see that approval rating slide down to below 40%.
Jan '11
Re: Is Madison Obama's Waterloo?
Two myths have been popped lately.
In normal negotiations, when management asks the union to take a pay cut, the union declares that this is just a ploy, and they demand that management open the books to show where the money really goes. But in this case, the books are already open. The union and public already know that "management" doesn't have the money. Therefore, the union's resistance is pure, stubborn selfishness.
That selfishness shines. It attracts attention. You know what the public sees now? That all my children's teachers are liberals, many as activist liberals. Now I see my children's teachers carrying signs equating conservatives with Hitler.
You better believe that exposing how liberal the schools are will have consequences.
Jan '11
Re: Is Madison Obama's Waterloo?
Having the President's campaign committee working to bus protestors in and galvanize rallies strikes me as not just mistaken, but unseemly; yet I'm unable to articulate why. Is it just that I'm on the other side of this debate? Or is there really something inappropriate about the President's involvement? I'd welcome some clarification from Ricochet members.
Jun '10
Re: Is Madison Obama's Waterloo?
Not Waterloo. First Manassas. Or Bull Run if you prefer.
Jun '10
Re: Is Madison Obama's Waterloo?
KC Mulville: Two myths have been popped lately.
. . . .
Governments have no self-interest. The public sector unions have betrayed this canard. Government is not a mere referee of other people's interests. Government plays the game as well.
I could not agree more. One of the great ironies of public sector unions is that they are, beyond doubt and beyond serious debate, "self-interested." That is, they have two goals: (1) more government, which means more government employees, and thus more union members, and (2) greater benefits than average, higher salaries than average, cushy pensions, and early retirement (with minimal penalties)
Here's the great irony, and yet another leftist inversion of the language: at the same time, they insist that they are "public servants," that they have chosen a career in "public service." It's time to call B.S. to this canard. They pretend to be "public servants" in order to receive greater personal economic benefits. That is not public service.
May '10
Re: Is Madison Obama's Waterloo?
no...Antietam...it's causing big 'casualties" on both sides...but it has shown we can beat ObamaLEE when we know his battle plans. It gives Abraham Teaparty the chance to make the "war" no longer just about preserving the Union(collective bargaining) but exposes the secessionists(big govy types) as elitists who expect the rest of us to give them tax hikes in a bad economy when the rest of us are praying we keep our jobs and simply exhale a sigh of relief when we just get a pay freeze instead of a pink slip. It also exposes Jefferson Barack Davis as out of touch with the people.
After Appomattox, he'll still proclaim that the troops should flee to the hills and fight guerrilla warfare while the Pelosi/Reid remnant stack their arms in defeat in 2012. End of bad analogy.
Re: Is Madison Obama's Waterloo?
I agree, ~Paules. And I prefer First Manassas.
Jul '10
Re: Is Madison Obama's Waterloo?
Damn the unions! Full speed ahead!
Oct '10
Re: Is Madison Obama's Waterloo?
KC Mulville:
In normal negotiations, when management asks the union to take a pay cut, the union declares that this is just a ploy, and they demand that management open the books to show where the money really goes. But in this case, the books are already open. The union and public already know that "management" doesn't have the money. Therefore, the union's resistance is pure, stubborn selfishness. · Feb 19 at 7:28am
Another thing is that in private industry the employees bargain with the management. In the public sector there is no competition and so we have employees bargaining with themselves to decide how much the management (taxpayers) are going to pay. Or you could say it's like management hiring a representative to negotiate with the union only to find out that the representatives are already paid off by the unions.
Oct '10
Re: Is Madison Obama's Waterloo?
Peter Robinson:
Obama, the public employees unions, the mainstream media are all on the defensive.
I sleep tonight a happy man. · Feb 18 at 9:09pm
You can sleep?
Seems that the counter-rally is answering the question you posed in the podcast regarding Obama's retro Clinton strategy. What O will realize, by force at the 2012 ballot box if not voluntarily earlier, is that 2011 is not 1995.
May '10
Re: Is Madison Obama's Waterloo?
Nerd identification:
If you think it is interesting that the Belgian town of Waterloo is pronounced, not Waterloo, but Water-low, then You are a Nerd.
I qualify.
Jan '11
Re: Is Madison Obama's Waterloo?