Is California a Stoner Republic?
What’s going on with California? Almost everywhere else – apart from New York – it looks as if the Republicans are going to do very well, especially in elections for national office. The latest polls, however, show Barbara Boxer maintaining a lead in her race against Carly Fiorina. We cannot attribute her advantage to charm and grace – because she has neither. So what gives?
This morning Sean Trende took a close look at the internals of the polls, and here is what he found:
Pollsters are having a devil of a time agreeing on what the electorate is going to look like. Let's take a look at the partisan breakdown of the polls, sorted by the edge for Senator Boxer.
As you can see, the ratio of Democrats to Republican in the sample goes hand-in-glove with the size of Boxer's edge. More Democrats equals more Boxer votes. In fact, the adjusted r-square is pretty nice -- about .74. These polls' internals actually don't disagree that much -- most of them have both candidates losing about 10 percent of their respective bases, while Fiorina has a double-digit edge among independents.
So who is right? Well, that's the frustrating thing -- we can't definitively say. But we can get some sense of history here. The following table shows the exit poll results for 2008, 2006 and 2004, as well as the present early voting numbers:
As you can see, the pollsters showing a comfortable Boxer lead are showing electorates that are similar to 2008. On the other hand, the pollsters who are showing a tight race see an electorate more like 2004 or 2006.
As I pointed out in earlier posts – here and here and here – everyone agrees that nationwide the independents now strongly favor the Republicans, that self-identified Republicans do so as well, and that self-identified Democrats strongly favor the Democrats. Everyone knows as well that there is an enthusiasm gap – that nearly everywhere self-identified Republicans are more likely to turn out to vote than self-identified Democrats. What nobody knows, however, is how significant the gap in enthusiasm will turn out to be.
Here’s the rub. There is some evidence, as Jay Cost pointed out this morning that California may be an exception to the rule – that, in California, Democrats may be even more fired up than Republicans. The pollsters at SurveyUSA believe that this is due to the fact that the legalization of marijuana is on the ballot. Lots of folks who think of themselves as Democrats but who do not normally vote intend to turn out this year to vote in favor of this ballot initiative. If Barbara Boxer wins this year, it will be because she carries the stoner vote.
I don’t live in California and never have, and my drug of choice has always come in a glass not in a joint. So I know next to nothing about this subculture. Does this analysis make sense to those of you who live on the left coast?
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Jun '10
Re: Is California a Stoner Republic?
I don't live in California, but I know quite a bit about stoner culture. It's characteristic of a populace well on the way down the road of decadence. What can be said about people who prefer to go through life permanently sedated? I'm sure this is what Homer had in mind when he introduced Odysseus to the Land of the Lotus Eaters. Such people frequently suffer arrested psychological development, especially when they start using pot in their adolescence. As citizens they are worthless. They make demands on everyone else without ever considering that they might have some sort of reciprocal obligation to society at large. You want an argument against legalized pot? One word: California.
Re: Is California a Stoner Republic?
If Barbara Boxer wins this year, it will be because she carries the stoner vote. Does this analysis make sense to those of you who live on the left coast?
No. Not because it isn't plausible, but because I've detected no enthusiasm for Prop. 19 out here in California anywhere. None. Zero. Not even among any of the students here at Stanford. The only person I've heard argue on behalf of Prop. 19 is a Republican economist who made the usual libertarian arguments in favor of legalizing drugs, but dryly, in a way hardly likely to move voters in their tens of thousands. I keep hearing just the analysis you relate here, but I'm not seeing it.
Edited on Oct 27, 2010 at 10:11amMay '10
Re: Is California a Stoner Republic?
Yes the stoners might vote for Boxer, but that would require them to wake up in time and show up to the polls.
In my world of likely (aka middle-aged) voters there is far more energy around Prop. 23 which is the law that would suspend AB 32, California's Global Warming law. Opposition to this initiative has far more activists and energy among likely (i.e. sober) voters -- and yes they are more likely to vote for Brown and Boxer. One can in polite society respectably be against Prop. 19. One cannot be vocally for Prop 23.
It's "creation season" in the Episcopal church and every Sunday for a month we have been "educated" from the pulpit about the importance of stewardship which, it seems, means opposing Prop 23.
Peter? Ottoman? Rob? Denise? James? BusySysAdmin? Is it the same where you live?
Edited on Oct 27, 2010 at 9:38amJul '10
Re: Is California a Stoner Republic?
What's the sense of voting on any Proposition if the 9th Circuit will knock it down?
Re: Is California a Stoner Republic?
Trace is exactly right. At a swell party not long ago, people spent 15 minutes decrying Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer and asking one another what they could do to help Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina. But when Prop. 23 came up, it was simply assumed--assumed--that no right-minded person would support it. (I kept my mouth shut. Some fights just aren't worth it.)
Re: Is California a Stoner Republic?
Here is a reply from my former student Tom Smith at http://rightcoast.typepad.com/rightcoast/2010/10/paul-rahe-asks-if-ca-is-a-stoner-republic-tom-smith.html:
Paul Rahe asks if CA is a stoner republic Tom Smith
And my answer is like, totally, like it totally is. Indeed, I have a hard time believing that even with its intrade odds down around 25 percent last time I looked, the legalize-weed proposition will fail. I suspect some who tell pollsters they'll vote no or don't know, will get in the booth and think, my mortgage, my credit cards, my F*&%ing job; I could use a little dope. This is just a theory.
I'm not even sure that Democrats will carry the pro-weed vote all that disproportionately, which complicates predicting California elections further. There are plenty of libertarian partakers or would-be partakers of the killer weed in the Sunshine and debt state as well as the typical hippies and hipsters. Then there are the many who have retired on fat public pensions. Retire at 50, surf and get baked. Sounds like a plan.
May '10
Re: Is California a Stoner Republic?
Just for fun, would someone please post or link to a copy of a California ballot? What is it with you people and all these ballot initiatives? Do you guys have to take a vote before you go to the store for bread and milk?
May '10
Re: Is California a Stoner Republic?
Matthew Gilley
Just for fun, would someone please post or link to a copy of a California ballot? What is it with you people and all these ballot initiatives? Do you guys have to take a vote before you go to the store for bread and milk? · Oct 27 at 10:53am
We actually have two redistricting initiatives this year that cover the same topic. Prop. 20 amends the state Constitution to empower an existing independent commission to re-draw districts post-census. Prop. 27 eliminates the commission. The ballot explains that in the event that the commission is both empowered and eliminated, the initiative that garnered the most votes will carry. So the majority could vote to give the commission the authority over redistricting, but the other measure could void that decision if more people vote to eliminate the commission. Of the lawyers, by the lawyers and for the lawyers...
May '10
Re: Is California a Stoner Republic?
Monty Python broke up too soon.
Oct '10
Re: Is California a Stoner Republic?
I listen to CBC radio frequently, living as I do near the border with British Columbia. There was a piece on this morning decrying the prospect of the demise of the pot growing industry in BC if prop 19 passes. This may be the silver lining if prop 19 passes. California may just gives us a glimpse of the ecomomic consequences of decriminalizing some elements of the drug industry.
By the way, if you think NPR is liberal, check out the CBC sometime!
Jul '10
Re: Is California a Stoner Republic?
I would love to see the "warning label" on a bag of weed.
May '10
Re: Is California a Stoner Republic?
Trace Urdan: Yes the stoners might vote for Boxer, but that would require them to wake up in time and show up to the polls.
In my world of likely (aka middle-aged) voters there is far more energy around Prop. 23 which is the law that would suspend AB 32, California's Global Warming law.
[...]
Peter? Ottoman? Rob? Denise? James? BusySysAdmin? Is it the same where you live? · Oct 27 at 9:35am
Edited on Oct 27 at 09:38 am
Trace - to be honest, I haven't seen much energy down here on the mid-peninsula around Prop 23 (but I'm Lutheran, not Episcopal, so maybe we're more focused on the upcoming Reformation Sunday). And perennial complaints about pulpit politicking by certain parishioners (ahem) may help quell such nonsense.
More to your point, it's pretty hard to imagine a worse GOTV target group than stoners. I'd more easily imagine Cheech and Chong trying to make it through SEAL training.
Jun '10
Re: Is California a Stoner Republic?
Does this equation work?
Stoners eventually find their polling places...enter the booth...but then vote for Carly and Meg because they don't want marijuana taxed as much as cigarettes are and they realize the Republicans aren't as inclined to tax as much. There are probably a lot of joint aficionados holding down white collar jobs, driving Beemers and Lexuseseses living in nice planned communities who understand that Republicans will be better for the economy than the Dems...and realize that in order to support their now legal habit they better at least have a job, meet their mortgage obligations, and know that they're going to have to keep their pantries stocked up with a lot more munchies from the supermarket...
Hey...it's a theory...
Edited on Oct 28, 2010 at 12:12amJun '10
Re: Is California a Stoner Republic?
It gets worse, we have county, city, and regional district initiatives as well. The city of San Francisco alone has 15 on Tuesday's ballot, including Prop D to secure the "Right of Non-Citizens to Vote in San Francisco School Board elections," two competing Hotel Tax measures (J & K), and Prop L to restrict sitting or lying on sidewalks from 7 a.m. to 11 p.m.