Is Barack Obama Losing African-American Support?
Here is a statistic that will warm the cockles of your heart. Public Policy Polling (PPP), a Democratic outfit, has found in its most recent poll that African-Americans in North Carolina are drifting towards Mitt Romney. In 2008, Barack Obama received ninety-five percent of the black vote in that state, and John McCain garnered a measly five percent. In this poll, Obama gets seventy-six percent and Romney gets twenty percent.
This may, of course, be a fluke, as some of the folks at PPP suspect. Or it may have to do with the state of the economy, as Glenn Reynolds intimates. I am inclined, however, to suspect the unthinkable – that it has to do with Obama’s embrace of gay marriage in the immediate aftermath of the referendum on the subject held in – yes, you guessed it!—North Carolina.
Barack Obama is part African and part Caucasian. But he is not African-American in the ordinary sense in which the category is used. He is not descended from those who were slaves on this continent. Moreover, he was not brought up within the African-American cultural milieu. My suspicion is that his hold on the African-American vote is quite tenuous. He has more in common culturally with ivy-league-educated folks like yours truly than he does with evangelical Christians of color, and they sense this fact. He may be wrong in supposing that he can fully embrace the agenda of our intellectual elite and still mesmerize African-American voters.
If so, in a completely counter-intuitive fashion, this just might be the year in which, for the first time in living memory, the Republicans begin to garner a respectable share of the African-American vote. Wouldn’t that be perplexing?
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Comments:
Apr '11
Re: Is Barack Obama Losing African-American Support?
I read this and made the Scooby-doo noise when something (usually Scooby-snacks) got his attention. Rrr-huoo?
Dec '11
Re: Is Barack Obama Losing African-American Support?
Although I agree the gay marriage issue has hardly endeared Obama to many within the black religious community, I think his administration's attempt to b**** slap Cory Booker didn't help matters either. Mayor Booker has a very dedicated constituency of mothers/grandmothers who are madder than wet hens right now that their "son" was chastised.
How convenient that this is happening in one of the bluest of the blue states!
Dec '10
Re: Is Barack Obama Losing African-American Support?
Dr Rahe,
Gay Marriage + No Jobs + Harvard = Deep Nausea
If it busts out he could lose 25% of the black vote. In a close election that's a big number.
Regards,
Jim
Re: Is Barack Obama Losing African-American Support?
James Gawron: Dr Rahe,
Gay Marriage + No Jobs + Harvard = Deep Nausea
If it busts out he could lose 25% of the black vote. In a close election that's a big number.
Regards,
Jim · 7 minutes ago
Big, indeed -- and once one has pulled the Republican lever one can do so again.
Jun '12
Re: Is Barack Obama Losing African-American Support?
I happen to think this is a fluke. He may not truly be African-American by the common definition, but those that are and that tend to "think" with their emotions instead of their intellect (i.e. most black lefties) tend to see him as "one of them."
If Obama doesn't get 90+% of the African-American vote, I'll be quite surprised.
Re: Is Barack Obama Losing African-American Support?
EThompson: Although I agree the gay marriage issue has hardly endeared Obama to many within the black religious community, I think his administration's attempt to b**** slap Cory Booker didn't help matters either. Mayor Booker has a very dedicated constituency of mothers/grandmothers who are madder than wet hens right now that their "son" was chastised.
How convenient that this is happening in one of the bluest of the blue states! · 9 minutes ago
At the time, I found myself thinking that Booker should switch parties and run for the Senate.
May '10
Re: Is Barack Obama Losing African-American Support?
James Gawron:
If it busts out he could lose 25% of the black vote. In a close election that's a big number.
Is it? Voting districts do not generally include an equal measure of middle class whites and poor blacks. If that 25% is primarily among poor blacks, then it will make little difference as they are made irrelevant by their neighbors.
If, on the other hand, that 25% is among the swing voters of mixed-race districts, this might indeed tip the balance in favor of Romney.
Apr '11
Re: Is Barack Obama Losing African-American Support?
Prof. Rahe,
Wonder if it will more likely play out like this:
Romney get's 10% of the black vote but more of them stay home from the voting booth unable to bring themselves to really support Obama.
Sort of the "choking on the donkey but not quite ready to swallow the elephant" theory playing out?
Also, to your point about Obama's lack of "authentic black culture" in his upbringing it reminds me of that annoying game where a liberal asks you to name a black conservative and you do (Walter Williams, Thomas Sowell, etc). They go on to claim that they aren't really black because of their rejection of black culture (i.e. not drinking the left wing koolaide).
But Sowell and William (and Clarence Thomas for that matter) had cultural and economic experiences much closer to the average or "authentic" black person growing up (more poverty, more racism because they're older, and they grew up among lots of other blacks in their community). They just arrived at different conclusions about politics and race than most in their circumstances did.
Jun '12
Re: Is Barack Obama Losing African-American Support?
FreeWifiDuringSermon:
Also, to your point about Obama's lack of "authentic black culture" in his upbringing it reminds me of that annoying game where a liberal asks you to name a black conservative and you do (Walter Williams, Thomas Sowell, etc). They go on to claim that they aren't really black because of their rejection of black culture (i.e. not drinking the left wing koolaide).
But Sowell and William (and Clarence Thomas for that matter) had cultural and economic experiences much closer to the average or "authentic" black person growing up (more poverty, more racism because they're older, and they grew up among lots of other blacks in their community). They just arrived at different conclusions about politics and race than most in their circumstances did.
Personally, in that circumstance I ask the lefty what specific discreet part of "black culture" the conservative in question rejects. If they have enough brains to get their shoes on the right feet in less than 10 minutes, they know I'm gonna jump on them if they quote some lefty nostrum, so they tend to mumble and try to change the topic.
I love doing that to 'em.
Apr '12
Re: Is Barack Obama Losing African-American Support?
There is no way Romney gets more than 10% of the national black vote. No Way. Obama will not get the incredibly massive turnout that he had in 2008, but a majority of african-americans will pull the lever for "their" guy even with this economy, with abandoned D.C. voucher program, gay marriage, and the general overall incompentance. They really should listen to this guy.
Aug '10
Re: Is Barack Obama Losing African-American Support?
Mitt Romney - America's third black president (after Clinton and Obama)
Who knew?
Re: Is Barack Obama Losing African-American Support?
FreeWifiDuringSermon: Prof. Rahe,
Wonder if it will more likely play out like this:
Romney get's 10% of the black vote but more of them stay home from the voting booth unable to bring themselves to really support Obama.
Sort of the "choking on the donkey but not quite ready to swallow the elephant" theory playing out?· 10 minutes ago
I have figured all along that the the turn-out would be down. This time around, Obama does not offer African-Americans anything to vote for. He can only hope that they will vote against something. Witness his intervention in the Trayvo Martin-George Zimmerman affair. Like George Wallace, he really wants to play the race card.
Re: Is Barack Obama Losing African-American Support?
A majority, yes. A majority would vote for any white Democrat. But 90%? I wonder.
Re: Is Barack Obama Losing African-American Support?
FreeWifiDuringSermon:
Also, to your point about Obama's lack of "authentic black culture" in his upbringing it reminds me of that annoying game where a liberal asks you to name a black conservative and you do (Walter Williams, Thomas Sowell, etc). They go on to claim that they aren't really black because of their rejection of black culture (i.e. not drinking the left wing koolaide).
But Sowell and William (and Clarence Thomas for that matter) had cultural and economic experiences much closer to the average or "authentic" black person growing up (more poverty, more racism because they're older, and they grew up among lots of other blacks in their community). They just arrived at different conclusions about politics and race than most in their circumstances did. · 15 minutes ago
What I had in mind was tone and manner -- the sort of thing that determines whether you feel comfortable with someone who purports to be one of your own. Walter Williams, Thomas Sowell, and Clarence Thomas are all in tone and manner typically African-American. Barack Obama is not. Among other things, he is a cold fish and off-putting in a way that African-Americans never are.
Apr '11
Re: Is Barack Obama Losing African-American Support?
I will be stunned if Obama gets less than 90% of the black vote nationally. Absolutely gobsmacked. There has been an enormous shift in favor of gay marriage among blacks in the last month, as they adjust their "deeply held moral principles" to match Obama's.
Aug '11
Re: Is Barack Obama Losing African-American Support?
I've felt since the 2010 midterms that none of the old rules apply. Could we be witnessing the start of an anti-Obama preference cascade among the black community? Be sure that the legacy media will do all they can to prevent it from happening.
May '10
Re: Is Barack Obama Losing African-American Support?
Come now...
Are we really so desperate to start doing the happy dance over a random poll, in June, that suggests something of dubious sustainability?
Let's maintain a little bit of perspective here....
Dec '11
Re: Is Barack Obama Losing African-American Support?
Paul A. Rahe
EThompson: Although I agree the gay marriage issue has hardly endeared Obama to many within the black religious community, I think his administration's attempt to b**** slap Cory Booker didn't help matters either. Mayor Booker has a very dedicated constituency of mothers/grandmothers who are madder than wet hens right now that their "son" was chastised.
How convenient that this is happening in one of the bluest of the blue states! · 9 minutes ago
At the time, I found myself thinking that Booker should switch parties and run for the Senate.
I know fifteen Republicans who reside in NJ and would vote for him right now.
May '12
Re: Is Barack Obama Losing African-American Support?
I can't speak to how much the NAACP represents the interests of black people that are also likely voters, but the NAACP couldn't wait to rush out and endorse Obama's SSM position.
Perhaps turnout is suppressed, but agree with most on this thread Obama will still garner 90% or better.
Jun '12
Re: Is Barack Obama Losing African-American Support?
Kofola: Come now...
Are we really so desperate to start doing the happy dance over a random poll, in June, that suggests something of dubious sustainability?
Let's maintain a little bit of perspective here.... · 25 minutes ago
Indeed.
PPP is also not the most reliable of pollsters. I'm taking that poll with a Lot's-Wife-sized grain of salt.