Is America in Decline?
Writing over at the New Criterion, Roger Kimball isn't so sure:
Gloom is a hardy perennial. It’s difficult to think of a time when intellectuals weren’t prognosticating disaster. And why not? Readers thrill to it. Bad news sells. “The Decline of the West,” to adopt the title of Oswald Spengler’s brilliant, dyspeptic fantasy, plays such seductive music. Spengler’s two-volume tome catapulted him to international celebrity in the scorched aftermath of World War I....
S. J. D. Green, in his essay on Tocqueville, offers a pertinent caution:
"Most theories of decline err in their very precision. They seek to identify the moment of decline, as well as its more general causes. Many think we have reached that moment now. But history suggests that we have been here before. The United States has been the world’s largest economy only since the 1880s. It has been the preeminent geopolitical power for a period shorter than a normal person’s lifespan. Predictions of its passing either in military might or economic clout have accompanied that predominance almost from the start...."
Roger closes his marvelous essay by quoting our own Victor Davis Hanson: "Decline is a choice, not a fate."
A nice meditation with which (since as I write this it's shortly before 2AM back East) to start the day.
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Sep '10
Re: Is America in Decline?
Given the current number of Americans on the government gravy train, I am more than a little worried.
Jul '11
Re: Is America in Decline?
The principles of economic success are still present. We shall survive as long as we cherish freedom and liberty more than comfort.
May '10
Re: Is America in Decline?
This is sort of like reporting a taxi driver's opinion, but early last year I walked around Holyoke Mall (Holyoke, MA). It seemed underutilized, a little shabby, and lacking enthusiasm, although here were plenty of expensive items on the shelves. The people looked a little tired.
Yesterday, I was walking around the Central Plaza (Chiangmai, TH) and I compared them in my mind. About the same size. Many more people walking around. Ten times more places to eat. Many products for sale were comparable but many others were a little downscale. The people seemed more cheerful.
All in all, it seemed like if you were looking for economic growth, you would bet on the Central Plaza.
Mar '11
Re: Is America in Decline?
The idea of decline has been around in both springs of the western mind at least since Genesis and Hesiod. It also has some root in the changes we undergo as we age: the elderly tend to have dour thoughts about those darn youngens.
In our era, the idea of decline befell our philosophic class in a particular way: historical consciousness was allowed to outgrow its proper place and become a smothering presence. It has since migrated down from these heights to become something of an ever-present mood. Even if you don’t buy into it, you can no longer ignore its presence.
That we do not see that this mood threatens to become a self-fulfilling prophecy I find most disconcerting. Its power over us grows in proportion to our willingness to muster our fears under its banners, and to allow it to direct our thoughts and our destiny.
I, for one, refuse to grant it pride of place, and if you wish to have any hope of reversing its most egregious effects, you should too.
Dec '11
Re: Is America in Decline?
Yes. We are picking over the remains of our past glories with little to no real effort to create a new glory. Its the implicit way we do business, its the implicit way we do politics, its implicit in our current car stylings.
and because I want to get Mr. Epstien rolling its implicit in our architecture.
Edited on Jan 6 at 3:56amFeb '10
Re: Is America in Decline?
America is on the decline, no doubt.
But current trends are not fate, as you say with your quote from VDH. It's hard to do, but we can reverse course.
If it's any consolation (which unfortunately and perversely, it often is) China's ascendency is likely fleeting. They're just on the upswing of the same curve we're following, except they'll go through the curve at an accelerated pace. There are also some demographic trends that work in our favor, which the Chinese do not have.
The predictions of doom are likely partly correct, but the pessimists, like the mirror image of the optimists, never fully account for all the factors that work in our favor. As you point out through Green, their predictions are thus often premature, yet still relevant. We would do better if we heeded them (with a dash of salt) than if we ignored them.
Mar '11
Re: Is America in Decline?
No.
VDH is right; decline is a choice, not a fate.
The current crop of candidates do not seem to contain any leaders. Fine. If they are not leaders, they necessarily are followers and can be told where to go.
(I'd like to tell a couple of them where to go, but the CoC prevents me from specifying the destination, the means of transport, or what they can do once they get there.)
Obama promised to "fundamentally transform" the nation. That is not going to happen. To change the nation in this nation requires changing the people. We the people (remember us?) are the government and I don't think anyone really wants the changes they've seen so far, outside of Bill Ayers, Eric Holder, Paul Krugman, and a few other cranks. The government is ours, by our suffrage and by our sufferance and the High and Mighty best not forget that.
We are changing this back. Now.
May '10
Re: Is America in Decline?
Percival: No.
VDH is right; decline is a choice, not a fate.
This is my sentiment on this question. Are we in decline? Maybe. Need we be in decline? Most certainly not. The last time I checked we haven't suffered any kind of massive, unavoidable disaster that makes our manner of living impossible. Our problems are largely self-imposed. They can be turned around.
Jul '10
Re: Is America in Decline?
And we have chosen.
Jul '11
Re: Is America in Decline?
I went with my family to the Pompeii exhibit yesterday at the museum of science in Boston. Now there is a city that declined quick. My 16 year old looked at all the pitiful corpses and asked what they might be thinking. I told him that it's a little known fact that the look on their faces was Obama regret.
Dec '11
Re: Is America in Decline?
Going to expand.
We have a poverty of vision and ambition.
We have business schools to teach you how to do nothing new cheaper. Too manage and pick over the remains of past accomplishments.
The ambition we can manage in this country is to organize in the park and complain that someone else is paid too much and if we can do x past awesome thing than well someone else needs to sort out my life for me.
We build buildings who dont need any more drafting tools that a square, and then they are small and boring.
We are just picking over our past economic accomplishments, lost in our past glories trying to appropriate for ourselves what we feel is our share of the remains.
Our major industrial heart is being hollowed out by leeches who consume the lifeblood and managers who get paid to cannibalize someone elses vision cheaper until the wheels come off and then declare bankruptcy.
Its just a wholesale poverty of vision and ambition. I mean seriously half of our country can only be roused to action to express indignation that they arent getting enough scraps from the decaying carcass of our society.
Jun '10
Re: Is America in Decline?
1. The institution of marriage is breaking down. Nearly half of all children are being raised in a situation other than a two-parent household. As goes the family so goes the nation.
2. Our culture as expressed by the popular media is now characterized by excessive self-gratification. Self-control and personal responsibility have been replaced by "if it feels good do it."
3. Our religious life is being eroded by atheism and neo-paganism (environmentalism).
4. Our standards of right and wrong are being replaced by relativism. We no longer have any standards.
5. Our educational system has become a system for indoctrination into post-modernism. Intellect is being replace by emotion, patriotism by doubt, and national unity by balkanization.
6. Our elected representatives have become a ruling oligarchy. One party is barely distinguishable from the other.
7. A once independent and self-sufficient populace is being reduced to government dependency.
8. Wealth creation has been replaced by wealth redistribution.
9. The rule of law is under assault by partisans of "social justice."
10. Abortion has become acceptable and routine. We will have no future if no one is around to claim it.
The end is nigh.
Jul '10
Re: Is America in Decline?
I would add to Paules' list a 40%+ illegitimacy rate. We are technologically more sophisticated than at any time before, but our culture is morally bankrupt. We continue to play a game where if we just elect this person or that party, everything will be okay, but our problems are rooted in the unraveling fabric of society itself. Too many people want to ignore it as long as it doesn't interfere with their own pursuits, and too many are defiant when told their self-destructive choices might not be the best for themselves or society.
We are seeing a culture uncoupled from its moral foundation, and the results are ugly: people defiantly wanting to live in whatever fashion they choose who become angry when faced with the consequences of their decisions. We are more often a people who look for someone to blame than take responsibility; a people who ignore all criticism as the comments of "haters" instead of reflecting on whether that criticism is valid. The coarsening of language, the immaturity endemic now across two generations: these are signs of decline of a spiritual nature regardless of how many new gadgets we produce.
Edited on Jan 6 at 8:43amJun '10
Re: Is America in Decline?
There is no doubt in my mind that we are in the midst of a major cultural decline in America. Exhibits A and B: more than 2 of every 5 births is illegitimate and the number of people in cohabitational relationships in America is approaching 15 million (nearly half have one or more children).
It's politically incorrect to say, but it's also supported by countless studies, if we want strong, self-reliant, successful children, we need to raise them in intact two-parent families. [Note: a single parent can raise great kids, but it's a lot harder, and the numbers prove it].
On another point, the whole symposium in this month's New Criterion is superb.
Suggested New Year's resolution: subscribe to New Criterion--it's edited by Roger Kimball, the same man who runs Encounter Books (our sponsor on the main podcast).
Edited on Jan 6 at 8:38amAug '10
Re: Is America in Decline?
It's a fair warning, but history shows that ALL world orders, empires, and great alliances eventually collapse. By definition, at least some doom mongering must be true.
The Roman elites warned about the collapse of virtue for hundreds of years, and its destructive effects on the Empire. A millennium after the fall of the Roman Empire, we could analyze its trajectory and say that it was, indeed, in decline for the last few hundred years of its existence.
Rome in its latter years carried the potential for new glories... but never achieved them. Rome stood strong... right up until it fell.
Apr '11
Re: Is America in Decline?
~Paules:
3. Our religious life is being eroded by atheism and neo-paganism (environmentalism).
The end is nigh. · Jan 6 at 7:22am
On virtually every indicator of social health (intact marriages, crime rates, educational attainment) atheists score very well, statistically better than believers.
Jun '10
Re: Is America in Decline?
wmartin
~Paules:
3. Our religious life is being eroded by atheism and neo-paganism (environmentalism).
The end is nigh. · Jan 6 at 7:22am
On virtually every indicator of social health (intact marriages, crime rates, educational attainment) atheists score very well, statistically better than believers. · Jan 6 at 8:50am
But they are still wrong. Religion is an evolutionary process. Primitive religion was based on a superstitious fear of nature. Polytheism followed when mankind recognized the existence of a higher power. The Jews were the first to recognize that the higher power was (and could only be) a single deity. Atheism and neo-paganism represent a retrograde movement away from the Truth. Denial of the source and center of our being, in the person of God the Father, is an error with potentially tragic consequences.
May '10
Re: Is America in Decline?
You can find data and rationale to support whatever side you have elected to adopt. Virtually all of the comments I see above were viscerally sourced, and the reasons were provided after the fact in support. Generally these kinds of thoughts are more emotional, not inductively arrived at.
Decline? In many sociological ways, sure. We've heard the same stuff for thousands of years, often the same reasons. Decline a choice? Of course- it always is.
But the question is still, compared to what? God's law of how we are to obey? Some kind of absolute standard for economic growth? Or size of government?
Or is it relative to "the market"? On that latter standard, what country is better? Who has a better government, even as we suffer through Obama? What country of this scope has more of its own resources, better demographic trends (bad as ours are, everyone else in our class is worse), more to work with? A stronger tradition of growing up, despite the constant temptations to avoid it?
We still have the leading technology, the top economy, the largest manufacturing base, the most energy resources, you name it.
And Ricochet!
Aug '10
Re: Is America in Decline?
Our time here on earth is about 75 years and the natural perspective of people of a certain age is one of pessimism.
Combine that with a demographic of Ricochet membership that is probably 75% 40-60 years old and this doubt is explained.
In the peacetime years we worry about the economy, in the runup to and exit from the big wars it's foreign policy.
Morality and culture are constant points of contention, with decay as sure to be perceived as pop music is to be rejected.
1893 ? remember how bad it was....of course not.
1929 ? remember how bad it was...of course not.
Decline is not only a choice, hell it's a seasonal event. The choice is in the attitude and the personal actions. Governments always act as if the wheels are coming off, but in the end the election cycles flush out the actors and a new play begins.
75 years is all we get. And no chance at forming the future.
You know how to make God laugh ?
Tell him your plans.