Iranian Press: Syria Points Scuds at Turkey
PressTV--that's Iran--is reporting that according to Turkish sources--no idea which--Syria has turned its Scud missiles toward Turkey:
The sources said that the missiles have been deployed in Syria's Kamisili and Ayn Diwar regions, Press TV's Ankara correspondent reported on Saturday.
The two regions are close to the borders of Turkey and Iraq.
This comes as Turkey has recently stepped up its rhetoric against the Syrian government. Reports have also emerged suggesting that Turkey is harboring Syrian armed opposition groups.
Don't you all be freaking me out now about whether Turkey's solid in NATO. I'm crossing my fingers and praying that Clause V still puts the fear of God into anyone who gets any really stupid ideas.
It will all settle down soon, I'm sure. No one in this region is really crazy, right?
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Oct '10
Re: Iranian Press: Syria Points Scuds at Turkey
Syria is about to fall. Who's next? Hezbollah in Lebanon or Iran? Will Saad Hariri and the cedar revolutionaries retake control of lebanon? Will we see Iran Green Revolution part 2?
Will all of this be happening in 2012? No wonder Iran is moving heaven and earth to finish building a nuke. How long before the mullahs get toppled?
Oct '10
Re: Iranian Press: Syria Points Scuds at Turkey
syria and iran are becoming paranoid.
"Faster Please." - Michael Ledeen
Feb '11
Re: Iranian Press: Syria Points Scuds at Turkey
Henry Kissinger.
Mar '11
Re: Iranian Press: Syria Points Scuds at Turkey
The real crazies are the ones who think Barack Obama will honor this country's NATO obligations to Turkey.
Mar '11
Re: Iranian Press: Syria Points Scuds at Turkey
Mr Obama has been out playing golf, so I'm sure there is nothing to worry about.
I'd feel a little more secure in Israel, right now.
Jan '11
Re: Iranian Press: Syria Points Scuds at Turkey
Take it from a man who lived through the Cuban Missile crises. Given the right set of circumstances and every Country is crazy if the right buttons are pushed. I'm talking rubble bouncing here.
Edited on Nov 27, 2011 at 8:19amJul '10
Re: Iranian Press: Syria Points Scuds at Turkey
Y'all got top notch bunkers and air raid shelters in Istanbul, don't you.
NATO. That would be a bunch of Lilliputian Euroforces and the golfer in chief
The obvious play is, Syria attacks Turkey, NATO levels the Iranian military. Provocations are useful things.
Mar '11
Re: Iranian Press: Syria Points Scuds at Turkey
Oh, but that it could be that easy.
Oct '10
Re: Iranian Press: Syria Points Scuds at Turkey
John Marzan: syria and iran are becoming paranoid.
"Faster Please." - Michael Ledeen · Nov 27 at 5:26am
It's funny because we were just having this discussion with Claire relative to the Iranians threatening to attack Turkey if the Iranian nuclear weapons program was attacked. I can understand testing an increasingly weak looking NATO, but it's still a weak state like Syria committing an act of war against a vastly superior NATO quality Turkish military.
I suppose this bolsters the concern that the Iranians (and their Syrian client state) aren't necessarily the most rational actors and might start to swing wildly if they panic. I'm pretty sure vexing the Turkish people and their military is a poor choice if you're goal is regime survival in Iran or Syria, but I could very well be missing something.
May '11
Re: Iranian Press: Syria Points Scuds at Turkey
That could also be intended to protect them from Israeli air attack. They still have sufficient range to reach Israel, but Israeli attacks would require a greater cycle time and would have to pass through more defenses than if closer to Israel.
Edited on Nov 27, 2011 at 11:18amMar '11
Re: Iranian Press: Syria Points Scuds at Turkey
Hmm, I wonder how much longer until CVN 77 George H.W. Bush arrives at Turkey. Traveling for perhaps 4-5 days so far from the Straits of Hormuz, any Navy vets willing to chime in on a reasonable ETA? Shame the 39th ASEW was shut down, no significant US combat aircraft left at Incirlik I believe.
Sep '10
Re: Iranian Press: Syria Points Scuds at Turkey
As far as your immediate safety is concerned, no worries. Scud missiles are notoriously inaccurate. The safest place to be is if they're aiming straight at you.
If Assad is really thinking about launching Scuds, it would be smarter for him to target Israel. That would get many Arabs back on his side, especially if Israel retaliates.
Dec '10
Re: Iranian Press: Syria Points Scuds at Turkey
Craziness is inversely proportional to what a regime has left to lose.
Clearly Assad has no concern for the people of Syria, outside his own clan. If it appears that his regime is truly collapsing and that there's nothing he can do internally to save it, he may decide that attacking an external enemy makes sense, and he may decide that attacking Turkey is a higher-percentage play than attacking Israel: Israel would have to respond to a Syrian attack as an existential threat with massive retaliation, whereas Turkey's response might be more limited and its ability to draw in any significant supporting forces from NATO might be problematic in the wake of NATO's Libya fatigue.
Oct '10
Re: Iranian Press: Syria Points Scuds at Turkey
dogsbody:
If Assad is really thinking about launching Scuds, it would be smarter for him to target Israel. That would get many Arabs back on his side, especially if Israel retaliates.
I'm skeptical. It didn't help Saddam when he did that and the Syrian dictatorship doesn't seem to be terribly popular right now even with the Arab League. I think what we have are a pair of increasingly paranoid dictatorships who aren't sure how to maintain power in the face of historic instability in the neighborhood.
Oct '11
Re: Iranian Press: Syria Points Scuds at Turkey
The NATO angle is really interesting here, isn't it?
Now, the fall of Syria could be the trigger for real cataclysmic progress in the middle east, the kind that ends with Hezbollah decimated and the mullahs decapitated. But that'd require lots of intelligent moves from the western powers, some being overt military action and some subtle and diplomatic or economic, but all being deft and even elegant. Ok, with the current cast distracted by their own political catastrophes, that's not happening.
But something drastic would certainly happen if Syria pushed Turkey hard and NATO got involved. I don't know enough to speculate, but I'm fascinated by the possibility. I do know that the European members aren't going to move a military muscle without a clear economic motivation. Case in point, Libya.
So, how about some Ricochetier with European insight (ahem, Claire) advance a realpolitik assessment of the conditions that might drive the European members to act on Turkey's behalf.
As for President Present, who knows what motivates him these days ...
Oct '10
Re: Iranian Press: Syria Points Scuds at Turkey
Iranian regime change is what would be a potentially transformative change in the region given that client states like Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas would have to find other patrons. The Syrian dictatorship collapsing creates a power vacuum that the Iranians, I assume, would work very hard to fill so as to maintain their influence in places like Lebanon at levels they are accustomed to presently.
Barfly:
As for President Present, who knows what motivates him these days
I think he's motivated by reelection and not much else.
Jun '10
Re: Iranian Press: Syria Points Scuds at Turkey
Relax, Claire--sanity prevails in the Middle East.
Jul '10
Re: Iranian Press: Syria Points Scuds at Turkey
Just stay still, tabula. It's probably just a seizure. I've summoned the medical authorities. Try not to swallow your tongue.