Iran: If We're Attacked, Our First Target is Turkey
Yesterday, our member Cdor expressed curiosity about the state of Turkish-Iranian relations. Today, the Turkish newspaper Milliyet is reporting this: In the event of an attack on Iran, according to Revolutionary Guard Air Force Commander Amir Ali Hacizade, the NATO missile shield in Turkey would be their first target of retaliation. (This apparently comes from Iranian news agency sources.)
So in the past week, Russia and Iran have threatened to attack Turkey because of its cooperation with NATO. Easy to say, "They're probably bluffing"--if you live in Hawaii. This is Turkey, where no one of any historical memory could take this as a joke.
No one really knows whether that missile shield will work, if push comes to shove, but I think we can all see that the possibility that it might work has caused hysteria in Iran and Russia, two countries that can make a great deal of trouble for Turkey--and historically have done so, to say the least.
Now look at things from the Turkish perspective: The United States is pulling out of Iraq. Its economy is in a parlous state. Its influence throughout the Middle East is waning. America has not been in a more isolationist mood since the 1930s. Americans don't seem to like Muslims much. Most of all, we can leave: Turkey can't. It lives with the consequences of anything that happens in this region. If you were a Turkish strategic planner, wouldn't you ask, "How committed is NATO to us?"
See what I mean?
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Re: Iran: If We're Attacked, Our First Target is Turkey
To this, you might want to add that many Americans remember just how unhelpful Turkey was to us in the second of our two wars against Saddam Hussein. The neo-Ottoman policy pursued by Erdogan and company has as its pre-condition a distancing between Turkey and its NATO allies. And, as they say, what goes around comes around.
Nov '10
Re: Iran: If We're Attacked, Our First Target is Turkey
Uh, don’t you have that exactly backwards?
Mar '11
Re: Iran: If We're Attacked, Our First Target is Turkey
Claire Berlinski, Ed.: If you were a Turkish strategic planner, wouldn't you ask, "How committed is NATO to us?"
See what I mean? ·
Well, in no doubt what is a complete coincidence a few days ago CVN 77 George H.W. Bush left its traditional theater of operations just off the Straits of Hormuz and appears to be thinking about parking off the coast of Turkey. Then again perhaps Obama is simply mulling over some overseas contingency operations in Syria.
Edited on Nov 26, 2011 at 7:28amRe: Iran: If We're Attacked, Our First Target is Turkey
Roberto
Claire Berlinski, Ed.: If you were a Turkish strategic planner, wouldn't you ask, "How committed is NATO to us?"
See what I mean? ·
Well, in no doubt what is a complete coincidence a few days ago CVN 77 George H.W. Bush left its traditional theater of operations just off the Straits of Hormuz and appears to be thinking about parking off the coast of Turkey. Then again perhaps Obama is simply mulling over some overseas contingency operations in Syria. · Nov 26 at 7:27am
Edited on Nov 26 at 07:28 am
Yes, I'm also wondering what the real purpose of that is.
Mar '11
Re: Iran: If We're Attacked, Our First Target is Turkey
Claire Berlinski, Ed.
Roberto
Claire Berlinski, Ed.: If you were a Turkish strategic planner, wouldn't you ask, "How committed is NATO to us?"
See what I mean? ·
Well, in no doubt what is a complete coincidence a few days ago CVN 77 George H.W. Bush left its traditional theater of operations just off the Straits of Hormuz and appears to be thinking about parking off the coast of Turkey. Then again perhaps Obama is simply mulling over some overseas contingency operations in Syria. · Nov 26 at 7:27am
Edited on Nov 26 at 07:28 am
Yes, I'm also wondering what the real purpose of that is. · Nov 26 at 7:38am
Any theory is no doubt little more than wild speculation but it seems difficult to imagine that whatever the Navy is considering they can hardly be excluding Turkey from their deliberations right there in Turkey's backyard. Relations are strained no doubt but certainly military to military coordination continues, that reflects some measure of trust in each other.
Edited on Nov 26, 2011 at 7:46amRe: Iran: If We're Attacked, Our First Target is Turkey
Well, that wasn't Erdogan's fault--he lobbied intensively against that vote. 100 MPs broke from the party and went with the Left.
Oct '11
Re: Iran: If We're Attacked, Our First Target is Turkey
Dear Ms. Berlinski,
In addition to Prof. Rahe's comment, Turkey does not act like a NATO ally when it threatens Israel. Turkey is in the process of making its bed. It might have to lie in it. That being said, of course the United States should not abandon the region.
Re: Iran: If We're Attacked, Our First Target is Turkey
Ducatista
Uh, don’t you have that exactly backwards? · Nov 26 at 7:07am
No, not really. I honestly hear more blanket hostility toward Muslims from Americans than I do blanket hostility toward Christians from Turks.
Re: Iran: If We're Attacked, Our First Target is Turkey
Claire Berlinski, Ed.
Roberto
Claire Berlinski, Ed.: If you were a Turkish strategic planner, wouldn't you ask, "How committed is NATO to us?"
See what I mean? ·
Well, in no doubt what is a complete coincidence a few days ago CVN 77 George H.W. Bush left its traditional theater of operations just off the Straits of Hormuz and appears to be thinking about parking off the coast of Turkey. Then again perhaps Obama is simply mulling over some overseas contingency operations in Syria. · Nov 26 at 7:27am
Edited on Nov 26 at 07:28 am
Yes, I'm also wondering what the real purpose of that is. · Nov 26 at 7:38am
By the way, you know the Russians also reputedly have an aircraft carrier in the Eastern Med now ...
Mar '11
Re: Iran: If We're Attacked, Our First Target is Turkey
Claire Berlinski, Ed.
Ducatista
Uh, don’t you have that exactly backwards? · Nov 26 at 7:07am
No, not really. I honestly hear more blanket hostility toward Muslims from Americans than I do blanket hostility toward Christians from Turks. · Nov 26 at 7:53am
Come now. You are conflating two overlapping but distinct bodies, Americans may be Christians but Christians are not necessarily Americans:
(September 14, 2011) – The 10th annual Transatlantic Trends survey
I have difficultly trusting your anecdotal evidence on this.
Edited on Nov 26, 2011 at 8:09amMar '11
Re: Iran: If We're Attacked, Our First Target is Turkey
Claire Berlinski, Ed.
Claire Berlinski, Ed.
Roberto
Claire Berlinski, Ed.: If you were a Turkish strategic planner, wouldn't you ask, "How committed is NATO to us?"
See what I mean? ·
Well, in no doubt what is a complete coincidence a few days ago CVN 77 George H.W. Bush left its traditional theater of operations just off the Straits of Hormuz and appears to be thinking about parking off the coast of Turkey. Then again perhaps Obama is simply mulling over some overseas contingency operations in Syria. · Nov 26 at 7:27am
Edited on Nov 26 at 07:28 am
Yes, I'm also wondering what the real purpose of that is. · Nov 26 at 7:38am
By the way, you know the Russians also reputedly have an aircraft carrier in the Eastern Med now ... · Nov 26 at 7:55am
Being someone who believes the Cold War did not truly end but merely entered a hiatus tidbits such as that do not comfort me. Iran and Russia are so chummy too...
Mar '11
Re: Iran: If We're Attacked, Our First Target is Turkey
Claire Berlinski, Ed.
Ducatista
Uh, don’t you have that exactly backwards? · Nov 26 at 7:07am
No, not really. I honestly hear more blanket hostility toward Muslims from Americans than I do blanket hostility toward Christians from Turks. · Nov 26 at 7:53am
Ah and who can forget that classic Turkish best seller, Metal Storm:
Good times, good memories.
Mar '11
Re: Iran: If We're Attacked, Our First Target is Turkey
I would have thought Iran's first target might be Israel - haven't they threatened to wipe 'em off the map, or something?
I also find it hard to believe that many Americans hate Muslims - after all, some of us elected.... oh, sorry, CoC violation!
Many Muslims do hate Americans though - that is beyond doubt.
Edited on Nov 26, 2011 at 8:27amJan '11
Re: Iran: If We're Attacked, Our First Target is Turkey
I'm not a diplomat, but isn't this contingency at least one of the considerations Turkey should have considered before entering the pact? Doesn't the benefit of an alliance always also involve an assumption of risk?
I don't live in Hawaii but it seems to me that brinkmanship diplomacy is a last-ditch strategy with consequences of the gravest kind. An enemy of America is a friend of Russia, so it doesn't surprise me that Russia is currying favor with Iran. I feel confident that Russia will play the situation for all it's worth, but in the end will act to prevent an apocalyptic event. Unlike Iran, Russia has a long history of intellectual progress, including great moments in art and music. I can't believe that such a people will risk oblivion for the sake of a delusional nation, having nothing to do with self interest.
Edited on Nov 26, 2011 at 8:50amNov '10
Re: Iran: If We're Attacked, Our First Target is Turkey
Claire Berlinski, Ed.
Ducatista
Uh, don’t you have that exactly backwards? · Nov 26 at 7:07am
No, not really. I honestly hear more blanket hostility toward Muslims from Americans than I do blanket hostility toward Christians from Turks. · Nov 26 at 7:53am
Even if true, it might have something to do with almost 3,000 innocent Americans (who never did one damn thing to any Muslim) killed in the name of Islam and almost no Muslims seemed to care, and a whole lot of them cheered. And in spite of that Americans go out of their way to make absolutely sure that all Muslims are treated decently in this country and have all their rights protected. But you say Americans don’t seem to like Muslims? I say they must like Muslims one hell of a lot to put up with all that Muslims as a group heap on Americans and the country that welcomes them.
Oh, and another 6,000 deaths of America’s finest young men to give a few million Muslims the blessings of liberty.
Edited on Nov 26, 2011 at 9:21amRe: Iran: If We're Attacked, Our First Target is Turkey
Roberto
I have difficultly trusting your anecdotal evidence on this. · Nov 26 at 8:08am
Edited on Nov 26 at 08:09 am
At what point does seven years of living in Turkey cease to be "anecdotal evidence?"
Re: Iran: If We're Attacked, Our First Target is Turkey
How's that zero-problems policy working out, kids? Another datum on the troubles course of Turco-American relations over the last couple decades: the end of the first Gulf War arguably initiated the current cycle of crises. The Turks, having fully supported the U.S. in the effort (Zincirli AFB was a major source of planes) expected—rightly or wrongly—American aid when the Turkish economy lost a big chunk of GNP that had been based on trade with Iraq. (The failure to reward our friends is a notable pattern in our diplomacy, along with a disinclination to punish our enemies.) If I recall correctly, the post-1991 situation, and our perceived faithlessness, was the main ground given by opponents of letting the 3rd ID invade from Turkey. And of course, when Erdoğan failed to deliver the votes (by inexperience or deviousness—it's Turkey, can't let a good conspiracy theory go to waste), the U.S. DOD and military got so ticked they essentially blew Turkey off thereafter, costing one of the historically most prominent pro-Turkish advocates in the USG. Which may have exacerbated the AKP's increasing anti-Occidentalism. One hopes the looming crisis helps everyone reevaluate their real national interests rationally.
Re: Iran: If We're Attacked, Our First Target is Turkey
Ducatista
Claire Berlinski, Ed.
Ducatista
Uh, don’t you have that exactly backwards? · Nov 26 at 7:07am
No, not really. I honestly hear more blanket hostility toward Muslims from Americans than I do blanket hostility toward Christians from Turks. · Nov 26 at 7:53am
Even if true, it might have something to do with almost 3,000 innocent Americans (who never did one damn thing to any Muslim) killed in the name of Islam and almost no Muslims seemed to care, and a whole lot of them cheered. And in spite of that Americans go out of their way to make absolutely sure that all Muslims are treated decently in this country and have all their rights protected. But you say Americans don’t seem to like Muslims? I say they must like Muslims one hell of a lot to put up with all that Muslims as a group heap on Americans and the country that welcomes them. · Nov 26 at 9:01am
I rest my case.
Oct '11
Re: Iran: If We're Attacked, Our First Target is Turkey
Dear Ms. Berlinski,
Perhaps seven years of living in Turkey doesn't give you the best idea of how Americans feel about Muslims, as opposed to how Turks feel the Americans feel about Muslims. There's a difference. You clearly can't see it.
May '10
Re: Iran: If We're Attacked, Our First Target is Turkey
I can't understand why Russia thinks it would be a good idea to cosy up to a major sponsor of Islamic terrorism like Iran. The Russian borders are adjacent several Muslim states, and the Russians have already tasted the bitter fruits of Islamic atrocities in their country. Do the Russians think it is a good idea to destabilise their own borders by alliances with Iran, and to poke Turkey in the eye, NATO ally or otherwise.
Given a choice between Iran and Turkey, which is less likely to be a real risk to the Russian state is clear to me.
Edited on Nov 26, 2011 at 9:39am